GeoHazards最新文献

{"title":"Estimation of Return Levels with Long Return Periods for Extreme Sea Levels by the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate Method","authors":"Jesper Rydén","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010008","url":null,"abstract":"Estimation of so-called return levels for environmental extremes is of importance for risk assessment. A particular challenge is to find estimates corresponding to long return periods, as uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals became too wide for practical use when applying conventional methodology where large portions of data are not used. A recently proposed technique, the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER), makes effective use of all available data. For risk analysis related to nuclear infrastructure, usually located along a coastline, extreme sea levels are of concern. We demonstrate, for measurements of the sea level along the Swedish coast at locations close to nuclear power plants, that the methodology results in considerably shorter confidence intervals compared to conventional approaches.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"101 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140452635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining the Relationship between Rainfall, Runoff, and Turbidity during the Rainy Season in Western Japan","authors":"Mohamad Basel Al Sawaf, K. Kawanisi, M. Bahreinimotlagh","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010009","url":null,"abstract":"Given the changing climate, understanding the recent variability in large-scale rainfall patterns is a crucial task in order to better understand the underlying hydrological processes that occur within a watershed. This study aims to investigate how rainfall events in western Japan have changed due to climate change and how these changes have affected runoff–turbidity dynamics during the rainy season. To address the research objectives, we analyzed two decades of precipitation records in the Gōno River watershed and examined the associated runoff–turbidity dynamics during floods using turbidity–discharge (T-Q) loops, quantified using an enhanced hysteresis index. Our findings revealed a kind of intense rainfall event occurring every 3 to 4 years. Additionally, spatial pentad analysis showed varying intensities of accumulated precipitation, indicating that extreme rainfall is not confined to a specific spatial zone. Regarding turbidity–discharge behavior, we found that clockwise hysteresis patterns were caused by sediment sources from near-channel areas, while anticlockwise patterns were caused by soil erosion from nearby areas. Another notable finding was that turbidity peaks during floods may represent the earlier (or later) arrival of turbid water from distant upstream sources due to intense precipitation. One of the key challenges in quantifying hysteresis patterns is that there is no agreed-upon definition for how to determine the start and end of a flood event. This can lead to bias in the quantification of these patterns.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"42 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140452994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Archeoseismic Study of Damage in Medieval Monuments around New Delhi, India: An Approach to Understanding Paleoseismicity in an Intraplate Region","authors":"S. Naik, K. Reicherter, M. Kázmér, Jens Skapski, Asmita Mohanty, Young-Seog Kim","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010007","url":null,"abstract":"The seismic shaking observed around Delhi and the surrounding region due to near-field and far-field earthquakes is a matter of concern for the seismic safety of the national capital of India, as well as the historical monuments of the region. Historical seismicity indicates that the Delhi region has been affected by several damaging earthquakes originating from the Himalayan region as far-field events, as well as due to near-field earthquakes with epicenters close to Delhi. The historical records, along with recent archeoseismological studies, suggest that Qutab Minar, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was damaged by the earthquake of 1803 CE. This event represents the only evidence of seismic damage from the region, as there has been no detailed study of other historical monuments in the area or earthquakes that have caused damage. In this context, the earthquake damage to other monuments might have been overlooked to some extent around the Qutab Minar due to the lack of proper earthquake damage surveys and documentation in historical times. The main goal of this study is to identify evidence of earthquake archeological effects around the Qutab Minar and to shed new light on the occurrence and characteristics of ancient earthquakes while providing data to inform seismic risk assessment programs. With this aim, we describe different earthquake-related damage (EAE, earthquake archeological effects) at the Isa Khan Tomb and Humayun’s Tomb, built between 1548 CE and 1570 CE, respectively, as well as the older Tomb of Iltutmish (built in 1235 CE) along with the Qutab Minar, which was built between 1199 CE and 1220 CE. The damage was probably caused by seismic events with intensities between VIII and IX on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS). Based on the methodology of paleo ShakeMaps, it is most likely that the 1803 CE earthquake was the causative earthquake for the observed deformation in the Isa Khan Tomb, Tomb of Iltutmish, and Humayun’s Tomb. More detailed regional paleoseismological studies are required to identify the responsible fault. In conclusion, the impressive cultural heritage of Delhi city and the intraplate region is constantly under seismic threats from near-field earthquakes and far-field Himalayan earthquakes.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"11 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139837303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Archeoseismic Study of Damage in Medieval Monuments around New Delhi, India: An Approach to Understanding Paleoseismicity in an Intraplate Region","authors":"S. Naik, K. Reicherter, M. Kázmér, Jens Skapski, Asmita Mohanty, Young-Seog Kim","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010007","url":null,"abstract":"The seismic shaking observed around Delhi and the surrounding region due to near-field and far-field earthquakes is a matter of concern for the seismic safety of the national capital of India, as well as the historical monuments of the region. Historical seismicity indicates that the Delhi region has been affected by several damaging earthquakes originating from the Himalayan region as far-field events, as well as due to near-field earthquakes with epicenters close to Delhi. The historical records, along with recent archeoseismological studies, suggest that Qutab Minar, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was damaged by the earthquake of 1803 CE. This event represents the only evidence of seismic damage from the region, as there has been no detailed study of other historical monuments in the area or earthquakes that have caused damage. In this context, the earthquake damage to other monuments might have been overlooked to some extent around the Qutab Minar due to the lack of proper earthquake damage surveys and documentation in historical times. The main goal of this study is to identify evidence of earthquake archeological effects around the Qutab Minar and to shed new light on the occurrence and characteristics of ancient earthquakes while providing data to inform seismic risk assessment programs. With this aim, we describe different earthquake-related damage (EAE, earthquake archeological effects) at the Isa Khan Tomb and Humayun’s Tomb, built between 1548 CE and 1570 CE, respectively, as well as the older Tomb of Iltutmish (built in 1235 CE) along with the Qutab Minar, which was built between 1199 CE and 1220 CE. The damage was probably caused by seismic events with intensities between VIII and IX on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS). Based on the methodology of paleo ShakeMaps, it is most likely that the 1803 CE earthquake was the causative earthquake for the observed deformation in the Isa Khan Tomb, Tomb of Iltutmish, and Humayun’s Tomb. More detailed regional paleoseismological studies are required to identify the responsible fault. In conclusion, the impressive cultural heritage of Delhi city and the intraplate region is constantly under seismic threats from near-field earthquakes and far-field Himalayan earthquakes.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"30 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139777552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Review of the Contribution of Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data to Evaluate Sea Level Trends in the Adriatic Sea within a Mediterranean and Global Context","authors":"K. Pandžić, Tanja Likso, R. Biondić, B. Biondič","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010006","url":null,"abstract":"The relatively new sea level satellite altimetry and secular coastal tide gauge data made the reconstruction of sea levels on regional and global scales possible about one century back. Due to better estimations of the Earth’s crustal, glacial, tectonic, and other possible motion biases in tide gauge data, some additional improvements can be expected in sea level reconstructions, analysis, and predictions. A more detailed review of published sea level-related results was conducted for the Eastern Adriatic coast, including the operation of the tide gauge network and data processing, crustal movement estimations, and the establishment of a new reference height system in Croatia, based on five tide gauge sea level data. It was shown that sea level variation and trend-related indicators are spatially homogeneous, especially on a sub-Adriatic scale. The regional Adriatic Sea mean sea level rise rate of +2.6 mm/year for the satellite altimetry era (1993–2019) is less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise rate of +3.3 mm/year for the period of 1993–2022. Several empirical methods for GMSL projections and expected IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessments until the end of the 21st century are considered.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139806975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Review of the Contribution of Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data to Evaluate Sea Level Trends in the Adriatic Sea within a Mediterranean and Global Context","authors":"K. Pandžić, Tanja Likso, R. Biondić, B. Biondič","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010006","url":null,"abstract":"The relatively new sea level satellite altimetry and secular coastal tide gauge data made the reconstruction of sea levels on regional and global scales possible about one century back. Due to better estimations of the Earth’s crustal, glacial, tectonic, and other possible motion biases in tide gauge data, some additional improvements can be expected in sea level reconstructions, analysis, and predictions. A more detailed review of published sea level-related results was conducted for the Eastern Adriatic coast, including the operation of the tide gauge network and data processing, crustal movement estimations, and the establishment of a new reference height system in Croatia, based on five tide gauge sea level data. It was shown that sea level variation and trend-related indicators are spatially homogeneous, especially on a sub-Adriatic scale. The regional Adriatic Sea mean sea level rise rate of +2.6 mm/year for the satellite altimetry era (1993–2019) is less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise rate of +3.3 mm/year for the period of 1993–2022. Several empirical methods for GMSL projections and expected IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessments until the end of the 21st century are considered.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139866851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ENSO Impacts on Jamaican Rainfall Patterns: Insights from CHIRPS High-Resolution Data for Disaster Risk Management","authors":"Cheila Avalon-Cullen, Rafea Al Suhili, Nathaniel K. Newlands, Christy Caudill, Harvey Hill, Jaqueline Spence-Hemmings, Markus Enenkel","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010005","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Jamaica’s rainfall patterns, leveraging CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2021 in 370 locations. Our analysis reveals a distinct ENSO imprint on rainfall, with La Niña phases showing a consistently higher probability of exceeding various rainfall thresholds compared to El Niño. Notably, La Niña increases the likelihood of heavier rainfall, particularly in the wet seasons, with probabilities of exceeding 200 mm reaching up to 50% during wet season II. Spatially, the probability of total monthly rainfall (TMR) during La Niña is elevated in the northeastern regions, suggesting regional vulnerability to excess rainfall. Additionally, during El Niño, the correlation between TMR and the maximum air temperature (Tmax) is significantly stronger, indicating a positive and more pronounced relationship between higher temperatures and rainfall, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.39 to 0.80. Wind speed and evapotranspiration show a negligible influence on TMR during both ENSO phases, maintaining stable correlation patterns with only slight variations. The results of this study underscore the necessity for differentiated regional strategies in water resource management and disaster preparedness, tailored to the unique climatic characteristics imposed by ENSO variability. These insights contribute to a refined understanding of climate impacts, essential for enhancing resilience and adaptive capacity in Jamaica and other small island developing states.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"12 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139817450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ENSO Impacts on Jamaican Rainfall Patterns: Insights from CHIRPS High-Resolution Data for Disaster Risk Management","authors":"Cheila Avalon-Cullen, Rafea Al Suhili, Nathaniel K. Newlands, Christy Caudill, Harvey Hill, Jaqueline Spence-Hemmings, Markus Enenkel","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010005","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Jamaica’s rainfall patterns, leveraging CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2021 in 370 locations. Our analysis reveals a distinct ENSO imprint on rainfall, with La Niña phases showing a consistently higher probability of exceeding various rainfall thresholds compared to El Niño. Notably, La Niña increases the likelihood of heavier rainfall, particularly in the wet seasons, with probabilities of exceeding 200 mm reaching up to 50% during wet season II. Spatially, the probability of total monthly rainfall (TMR) during La Niña is elevated in the northeastern regions, suggesting regional vulnerability to excess rainfall. Additionally, during El Niño, the correlation between TMR and the maximum air temperature (Tmax) is significantly stronger, indicating a positive and more pronounced relationship between higher temperatures and rainfall, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.39 to 0.80. Wind speed and evapotranspiration show a negligible influence on TMR during both ENSO phases, maintaining stable correlation patterns with only slight variations. The results of this study underscore the necessity for differentiated regional strategies in water resource management and disaster preparedness, tailored to the unique climatic characteristics imposed by ENSO variability. These insights contribute to a refined understanding of climate impacts, essential for enhancing resilience and adaptive capacity in Jamaica and other small island developing states.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"236 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139877312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine Learning-Based Flood Forecasting System for Window Cliffs State Natural Area, Tennessee","authors":"George K. Darkwah, A. Kalyanapu, Collins Owusu","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010004","url":null,"abstract":"The prevalence of unforeseen floods has heightened the need for more accurate flood simulation and forecasting models. Even though forecast stations are expanding across the United States, the coverage is usually limited to major rivers and urban areas. Most rural and sub-urban areas, including recreational areas such as the Window Cliffs State Natural Area, do not have such forecast stations and as such, are prone to the dire effects of unforeseen flooding. In this study, four machine learning model architectures were developed based on the long short-term memory, random forest, and support vector regression techniques to forecast water depths at the Window Cliffs State Natural Area, located within the Cane Creek watershed in Putnam County, Tennessee. Historic upstream and downstream water levels and absolute pressure were used to forecast the future water levels downstream of the Cane Creek watershed. The models were tested with lead times of 3, 4, 5, and 6 h, revealing that the model performances reduced with an increase in lead time. Even though the models yielded low errors of 0.063–0.368 ft MAE, there was an apparent delay in predicting the peak water depths. However, including rainfall data in the forecast showed a promising improvement in the models’ performance. Tests conducted on the Cumberland River in Tennessee showed a promising improvement in model performance when trained with larger data.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"24 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139597918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistics on Typhoon Intensity and Rice Damage in Vietnam and the Philippines","authors":"K. Yuen, Adam D. Switzer, Paul P. S. Teng, Janice S. H. Lee","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010002","url":null,"abstract":"Typhoons are destructive multi-hazard events. To assess the relationship between typhoon intensity and agricultural loss, there is a need for accurate and standardized information on loss and damage, which is currently lacking. To address this, a database for Vietnam and the Philippines was created to provide aggregated information on the magnitude of rice damage and to highlight the rice-growing areas which were prone to being damaged by typhoons. Our study period was from 1970 to 2018, and we focused on Vietnam and the Philippines as these two countries experience frequent and intense typhoons. As different crops respond differently to wind and rain, we limit our research to a single crop. In this study, we focused on rice as it is a major staple food in Southeast Asia, and rice fields were often damaged by typhoons in the two countries. Of the 829 typhoon events recorded, only 15% of the events resulted in rice damage. The average area of rice damaged per typhoon event ranged from 42,407 ha in Vietnam to 83,571 ha in the Philippines. Meanwhile, the average production loss per typhoon event ranged from 190,227 metric tonnes in the Philippines to 539,150 metric tonnes in Vietnam. The monetary value of rice crops lost was only reported in the Philippines, and this amounted to an average of US$ 42 million per typhoon event. There was a weak relationship between landfall wind speed and the three indicators of rice damage, which suggests that rice damage was not primarily due to strong winds. Our results showed that the rice fields in the coastal provinces of Vietnam and the northern parts of the Philippines were more vulnerable to being damaged by typhoons.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"1 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139438197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}