GeoHazards最新文献

{"title":"Modelling and Validation of the Derna Dam Break Event","authors":"Alessandro Annunziato, M. Santini, Chiara Proietti, Ludovica de Girolamo, Valerio Lorini, Andrea Gerhardinger, Michele Tucci","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020026","url":null,"abstract":"The catastrophic failure of two dams in Libya on 10 and 11 September 2023 resulted in the devastating flooding of the city of Derna, which is located downstream of the dams, causing more than 6000 fatalities and displacing thousands of residents. The failure was attributed to heavy rainfall from Storm Daniel, leading to the dams reaching full capacity and subsequently overflowing and failing. This paper presents an analysis of the dam break, including the modelling of flow discharge and the resulting flooding of Derna. For validation purposes, this study compares the modelled quantities with post-event satellite imagery from UNOSAT and Copernicus, local reports, and data collected from social media using AI detection. The findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the dam break and its initial parameters, as well as an assessment of the accuracy of the results. The analysis is performed using a rapid estimation technique developed by JRC to provide the international emergency community with a swift overview of the impact and damage assessment of potential or actual dam break events. The use of all available data shows a satisfactory comparison with the calculated quantities. The rapid modelling of dam break events and combined analysis of multiple data types are proven suitable for promptly assessing the expected dynamic of the event, as well as reconstructing the unknown initial conditions before the break. Incorporating sensitivity analyses provides an estimate of the uncertainties associated with the deduced values of the unknown parameters and their relative importance in the analysis.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"47 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141279792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cost-Benefit Analysis of Minor Irrigation Tank Rehabilitation Using Run-Off and Storage Capacity: A Case Study from Ambuliyar Sub-Basin, Tamil Nadu, India","authors":"Nasir Nagoor Pitchai, Somasundharam Magalingam, Sakthi Duraisamy Rajasekaran, Selvakumar Radhakrishnan","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020023","url":null,"abstract":"This research examines the significance of restoring efficient water management systems in India’s semiarid environment, with special emphasis on the role of traditional irrigation structures, such as tanks, in collecting and storing limited water resources. Assessing the benefits of any restoration program, especially when socioeconomic and environmental benefits are involved, is challenging. In the context of tank rehabilitation, a cost-benefit analysis will be conducted regarding economic and ecological returns in the post-desiltation phase. Since the restoration process requires a significant investment, assessing the project’s viability during the planning stage is better. The present study proposes a novel method to indirectly analyse the cost-benefit of the tank restoration process by correlating run-off and storage capacity of tanks before the planning phase. The Ambuliyar sub-basin, which covers an area of 930 square kilometres in Tamil Nadu, India, comprising 181 tanks (water bodies) of varying sizes and shapes, was taken for this study. This study employed the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, incorporating factors such as soil type, land cover, land use practices, and advanced remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to simulate surface run-off. Run-off volume and tank capacity were compared for all seasons at the micro-watershed level. The results demonstrated that the run-off volume in each micro-watershed significantly exceeded the tank capacity across all seasons. Even during the summer, the run-off volumes in the micro-watershed were considerably higher than the tank capacity. The findings suggest tank restoration can effectively store run-off and significantly fulfil agricultural and other essential needs throughout the year, thereby improving the local rural economy. This study also highlights the need for periodic maintenance and rehabilitation of these tank systems to retain their functionality.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"8 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141120281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geoinformatics-Based Mapping of Environmental Sensitive Areas for Desertification over Satara and Sangli Districts of Maharashtra, India","authors":"Chandra Shekhar Dwivedi, Dishant, Bikash Ranjan Parida, A. Pandey, Ravi Kumar, Navneet Kumar","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020022","url":null,"abstract":"Desertification processes in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid conditions have been enhanced in recent decades. The geospatial database and associated satellite data can be effectively employed for regional planning to address desertification and land degradation. In this study, the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model has been used to map environmentally sensitive areas due to desertification in the Satara and Sangli districts of Maharashtra, India. This was achieved by combining Landsat-8 multispectral data, Census data, soil data, and climatic variables like temperature, rainfall, and evapotranspiration. The algorithm of MEDALUS is the geometric mean of four indicators, namely soil quality index (SQI), climate quality index (CQI), vegetation quality index (VQI), and socio-economic quality index (SEQI). The findings indicated that the majority of the study area comes under the potential category of desertification (60.32%) followed by fragile (27.87%) and critical (11.81%). Areas with a high propensity for desertification were found over the low to very low climatic quality and moderate to high soil quality including lower socio-economic quality. The lower socio-economic quality is mainly due to high to very high population density (>100 people/km2), low to moderate illiteracy rate (<16%), and low to moderate work participation rate (<50%) that incentivize unsustainable land use practices. The study provides a valuable tool for understanding and managing natural resources. It offers a detailed analysis of the environmental sensitivity of the study area, taking into account various factors like land use, vegetation cover, slope, and soil erosion potential. The developed comprehensive map of the area helps in identifying the most sensitive regions and developing appropriate conservation strategies. The information obtained from the study can be utilized to develop and implement successful measures to prevent or alleviate desertification, which is crucial for sustaining the health of ecosystems and the welfare of local residents.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"2 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140963250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marine Geohazards of the Bay of Naples (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): A Review Integrating Morpho-Bathymetric and Seismo-Stratigraphic Analysis","authors":"G. Aiello, M. Caccavale","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020021","url":null,"abstract":"Marine geohazards in the Bay of Naples, an eruptive region during the late Quaternary, have been assessed based on both morpho-bathymetric and seismic data. Previously identified areas of high marine hazard with slide potential (northern Ischia slope, Naples canyons, and Sorrento Peninsula–Capri slope) have been confirmed and integrated through the seismo-stratigraphic analysis of selected seismic sections. We evaluated the occurrence of important fossil submarine landslides in the stratigraphic record. Several kinds of submarine landslides have been individuated through morpho-bathymetric and seismic interpretation, including creeping, debris avalanches, and debris flows, among others, often controlled by volcanic eruptions. Submarine landslides of Naples Bay are primary geohazards in the marine and coastal areas, which has been ascertained with significant volcanic and tsunami hazards involving the gulf. Despite previous studies on these topics, much work is still needed to compile a systematic database of the submarine landslides of the Bay of Naples, representing a future step of this research.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":" 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140993285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geospatial Analysis and Mapping of Regional Landslide Susceptibility: A Case Study of Eastern Tennessee, USA","authors":"Qingmin Meng, Sara A. Smith, John Rodgers","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020019","url":null,"abstract":"A landslide is the movement of rocks, debris, and/or soils down a slope, which often includes falls, topples, slides, flows, and spreads. Landslides, a serious natural hazard to human and human activity, often occur in the coastal and mountainous areas in the United States. Although there are some studies that have explored the landslide probability, which is typically directly modeled by inputting potential environmental variables into statistical regression models, this study designed an alternative geospatial analysis and modeling approach. We first conducted statistical diagnostic tests to examine the significance of potential driving factors including landform, land use/land cover, landscape, and climate. In eastern Tennessee, USA, we first applied the t-test and chi-squared test to select the significant factors driving landslides, including slope, clay percentage in the soil, tree canopy density, and distance to roads, having a p-value of less than 0.05. We then incorporated the four identified significant factors as covariates into logistic regression to model the relationship between these factors and landslides. The fitted logistic model, with a high area under the ROC (AUC) score of 0.94, was then applied to predict landslides and make a regional landslide susceptibility map for eastern Tennessee. The landslide’s potential impacts on eastern Tennessee were also discussed, and implications for local governments and communities for current physical infrastructure protection and new infrastructure development were summarized.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":" 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140690969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Uncertainty in Internal Erosion Simulations for DLBreach and WinDAM C","authors":"Anthony Atkinson, Mitchell Neilsen","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020018","url":null,"abstract":"The work detailed here is part of an international initiative on the evaluation of dam safety simulation software for internal erosion performance and best practices. The primary experiments involve simulating uncertainty in the failure events of two dams with two different models: DLBreach and WinDAM C. DLBreach is a physically-based dam/levee breach model developed by Wu. WinDAM C is also a physically based dam breach model capable of analyzing both dam overtopping and internal erosion. The dams selected for the analysis include a 1.3 m high dam tested in the lab and a larger 15.56 m high dam, which suffered a failure in the field. The findings from these experiments are extended with a further analysis on variance, sensitivity, and optimization. Finally, a regression model is trained using the results of these simulators as an inquiry into how well such a system can be captured using machine learning techniques. The results of these experiments, together with the results of the other members of the initiative, improve our understanding of the influences that users bring to using these tools.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"20 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140697542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relative Sea Level and Coastal Vertical Movements in Relation to Volcano-Tectonic Processes at Mayotte Island, Indian Ocean","authors":"J. Gargani","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020017","url":null,"abstract":"During the last 10 kyr, significant subsidence and uplift occurred on Mayotte Island in the Comoros archipelago (Indian Ocean), but the role of volcanic processes in Holocene vertical movements has been neglected in the research so far. Here, we show that an abrupt subsidence of 6–10 m occurred between 9.4 and 10 kyr ago, followed by an uplift of the same amplitude at a rate of 9 mm/yr from 8.1 to 7 kyr ago. A comparison of the relative sea level of Mayotte and a reference sea level curve for the global ocean has been conducted using a modeling approach. This shows that an increasing and decreasing pressure at depth, equivalent to the process caused by a deep magma reservoir (50–70 km), was responsible for ~6–10 m subsidence and 6–10 m uplift, whereas loading by new volcanic edifices caused subsidence during the last few thousand years. Surface movements and deep pressure variations may be caused by pulses from the deep mantle, related to superplume activity, but uncertainties and unknowns about these phenomena are still present and further studies are needed. A better understanding of the volcano-tectonic cycle may improve assessments of volcanic hazards.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140708677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Serious Games for Seismic Risk Education: The Case of the ENP-CP Project","authors":"Agostino Goretti, Gemma Musacchio","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5020016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020016","url":null,"abstract":"This paper delves into the potential advantages of integrating gamification into seismic risk management education, with a specific emphasis on the efficacy of serious games in augmenting the learning process. It offers an illustration of gamification within the framework of a seismic risk preparedness project involving multiple countries, languages, and cultures and across the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. The innovation of this approach largely lies in shifting the focus from competition, which is typical in most games, to collaboration. Three digital serious games were implemented to tackle facets of seismic risk management that are particularly favourable for empowering communities at risk. These games were first used in a hybrid event where students from Algeria, Morocco, and Italy engaged in gameplay both in person within their respective classrooms and remotely with classes in each country. The evaluation study showed the positive impact of gamification in captivating young participants and thereby instilling best practices in seismic risk management.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"176 S424","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140731110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landslide Risks to Bridges in Valleys in North Carolina","authors":"Sophia Lin, Shen-En Chen, Wenwu Tang, V. Chavan, N. Shanmugam, Craig Allan, John Diemer","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010015","url":null,"abstract":"This research delves into the intricate dynamics of landslides, emphasizing their consequences on transportation infrastructure, specifically highways and roadway bridges in North Carolina. Based on a prior investigation of bridges in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, we found that bridges above water and situated in valleys can be exposed to both landslide and flooding risks. These bridges faced heightened vulnerability to combined landslides and flooding events due to their low depth on the water surface and the potential for raised flood heights due to upstream landslides. Leveraging a dataset spanning more than a century and inclusive of landslide and bridge information, we employed logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models to predict landslide susceptibility in North Carolina. The study considered conditioning factors such as elevation, aspect, slope, rainfall, distance to faults, and distance to rivers, yielding LR and RF models with accuracy rates of 76.3% and 82.7%, respectively. To establish that a bridge’s location is at the bottom of a valley, data including landform, slope, and elevation difference near the bridge location were combined to delineate a bridge in a valley. The difference between bridge height and the lowest river elevation is established as an assumed flooding potential (AFP), which is then used to quantify the flooding risk. Compared to traditional flood risk values, the AFP, reported in elevation differences, is more straightforward and helps bridge engineers visualize the flood risk to a bridge. Specifically, a bridge (NCDOT ID: 740002) is found susceptible to both landslide (92%) and flooding (AFT of 6.61 m) risks and has been validated by field investigation, which is currently being retrofitted by North Carolina DOT with slope reinforcements (soil nailing and grouting). This paper is the first report evaluating the multi-hazard issue of bridges in valleys. The resulting high-fidelity risk map for North Carolina can help bridge engineers in proactive maintenance planning. Future endeavors will extend the analysis to incorporate actual flooding risk susceptibility analysis, thus enhancing our understanding of multi-hazard impacts and guiding resilient mitigation strategies for transportation infrastructure.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":" 29","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140221638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System in the Black Sea Basin: Selection/Adoption of Ground Motion Prediction Equations with Emphasis in the Cross-Border Areas","authors":"Nikolaos Theodoulidis, B. Margaris, Dimitrios Sotiriadis, Can Zulfikar, Seyhan Okuyan Akcan, C. Cioflan, E. Manea, D. Toma-Danila","doi":"10.3390/geohazards5010013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5010013","url":null,"abstract":"In the present study, an effort to propose and adopt appropriate Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for the Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) in the Black Sea basin is attempted. Emphasis of GMPE harmonization in the cross-border areas (CBA) is given. For this reason, two distinct sub-areas are investigated, taking into consideration their seismotectonic regime. One sub-area refers to active shallow crustal earthquakes (Greece-Turkey, CBA) and the other to intermediate-depth and shallow crustal earthquakes (Romania-Moldova, Western Black Sea CBA). Testing and ranking of pre-selected GMPEs has been performed using strong motion data of the broader CBA regions of both sub-areas. The final proposed GMPEs to feed the REDA System may assure the effective estimation of ShakeMaps and—in combination with the appropriate vulnerability curves—reliable near-real-time damage assessment in the cross-border earthquake affected areas.","PeriodicalId":502457,"journal":{"name":"GeoHazards","volume":"120 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140079242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}