用平均条件超标率法估算重现期长的极端海平面回归水位

Jesper Rydén
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对极端环境的所谓回归水平进行估算对于风险评估非常重要。一个特殊的挑战是如何找到与长回归期相对应的估算值,因为在采用传统方法时,由于未使用大部分数据,以置信区间形式表示的不确定性太大,无法实际使用。最近提出的平均条件超标率(ACER)技术可有效利用所有可用数据。对于通常位于海岸线上的核基础设施的相关风险分析,极端海平面是一个值得关注的问题。我们通过对瑞典海岸线上靠近核电站位置的海平面测量结果表明,与传统方法相比,该方法可大大缩短置信区间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of Return Levels with Long Return Periods for Extreme Sea Levels by the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate Method
Estimation of so-called return levels for environmental extremes is of importance for risk assessment. A particular challenge is to find estimates corresponding to long return periods, as uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals became too wide for practical use when applying conventional methodology where large portions of data are not used. A recently proposed technique, the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER), makes effective use of all available data. For risk analysis related to nuclear infrastructure, usually located along a coastline, extreme sea levels are of concern. We demonstrate, for measurements of the sea level along the Swedish coast at locations close to nuclear power plants, that the methodology results in considerably shorter confidence intervals compared to conventional approaches.
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CiteScore
2.60
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