Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics最新文献_第2页

An Analytical Study on Dual Generalized Guglielmo Numbers 关于双广义古格里耶莫数的分析研究

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4607

Bahadır Yılmaz, Y. Soykan

引用次数: 0

Modelling by Generation of Poisson Distributed Numbers of First Historical Zika Outbreak in Salta, Argentina 阿根廷萨尔塔首次历史性寨卡疫情的泊松分布数生成模型

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4606

Juan Carlos Rosales, Betina Abad

{"title":"Modelling by Generation of Poisson Distributed Numbers of First Historical Zika Outbreak in Salta, Argentina","authors":"Juan Carlos Rosales, Betina Abad","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4606","url":null,"abstract":"Aims/ Objectives:: In this work we describe the first historical Zika virus outbreak recorded in Salta, Argentina, in the year 2017, through Monte Carlo-type simulations using the Poisson model. Later we made comparisons with previous results.Study Design: Retrospective-descriptive studies and stochastic computational experiment analysis Place and Duration of Study: Department of Mathematic, Faculty of Exact Sciences. National University of Salta, Argentina, from March 2021 to December 2023.Methodology: Descriptive and computational experiment analysis. Parameter estimation by Maximum Likelihood and Simulation of type Monte Carlo.Results: We describe the probabilistic behavior through Monte Carlo simulations of the first historical outbreak of Zika in Salta Argentina, 2017. Based on the data of registered Zika cases, we estimate a probabilistic Poisson model with parameter(hat{lambda}) = 13:092 casesweek-1 and confidence interval 95%CI [11:889- 15:110]. Finally, by computational experiments we generate epidemic outbreaks with 20 runs. The computational experiments shows that, from a qualitative point of view, the descriptions of the outbreak are qualitatively acceptable and they were not better than the probabilistic model obtained in a previous study. However, from the statistical point of view, carrying out computational experiments of 10 comparative runs in each model, the models provide simulations of epidemic outbreaks by Zika virus, for this region of Salta, Argentina, that do not differ significantly at a confidence level of 5%.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"17 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140694085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of Population Census in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯王国人口普查的贝叶斯概率预测

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4605

Saheed A. Afolabi

引用次数: 0

A Note on the Risk Model with Dependence and Capital Injections 关于附带依赖性和注资的风险模型的说明

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4604

Cailing Li

引用次数: 0

Analysis of the Effects of Money Market Fund Mobilization on the Dynamics of Nigerian Economic Growth 货币市场资金调动对尼日利亚经济增长动态的影响分析

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3603

Osamo Caleb Kehinde, O. Nwankwo, Awogbemi, Clement Adeyeye, Charles C. Okeke

{"title":"Analysis of the Effects of Money Market Fund Mobilization on the Dynamics of Nigerian Economic Growth","authors":"Osamo Caleb Kehinde, O. Nwankwo, Awogbemi, Clement Adeyeye, Charles C. Okeke","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3603","url":null,"abstract":"Economic growth is a function of some productive efforts among which savings mobilizations is considered very vital. This study examines savings mobilization strategy and its impact on Nigeria’s economic growth during the year 2001-2022.This is vested with the objectives to investigate the effect of banking density, savings rates and money supply on economic growth. The study relies on time series data sourced from the publication of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (GDPGR) was adopted as dependent variable, while Banking Density (BD), Savings Rates (SR) and Money Supply (MS) were the independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test was employed, to test the stationarity. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ADRL) was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables alongside Vector Error Correction Model (VCM). Post estimation diagnostic tools used include Breuch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test and the CUSUM test for stability. From the ARDL, β-coefficient and the associated probabilities were adopted to determine the extent and direction of relationship on economic growth. Data were tested at 5% level of significance; it was discovered that banking density and savings rates affected economic growth positively but with insignificant effects, while money supply affected economic growth negatively with insignificant effect. The study therefore recommends amongst others, that stakeholders, be directed towards entrenching higher banking density as opposed to banking desert, and that money supply should be made dynamic in accordance with economic realities.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"50 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140735660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors that Influence Contraceptive Use by Men in Afikpo North Local Government Area of Ebonyi State 影响埃邦伊州阿菲克波北地方政府区男性使用避孕药具的社会经济和人口因素

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3602

B. U., Igwe N. O.

{"title":"Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors that Influence Contraceptive Use by Men in Afikpo North Local Government Area of Ebonyi State","authors":"B. U., Igwe N. O.","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3602","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors that influence Contraceptive use by Married Men in Afikpo North Local Government Area of Ebonyi State. It is aimed at identifying the determinants of contraceptive use among married men in Afikpo North Local Government Area of Ebonyi State. A sample of four hundred and sixty one (461) married men were selected for the study through Multi-Stage sampling design. Cross tabulation results revealed that there is a significant relationship between the independent variables and contraceptive use. Logistic regression results showed that the significant socio-economic and demographic determinants of contraceptives use among the study sample are marriage duration of at least five years, religion, education, occupation, parity, number of children living and age. The Hosmer Lemeshow test for goodness of fit of the logistic regression model is 87.9 percent and is highly significant (p-value > 0.05). This indicates that the model fitted is adequate. The study recommends among others that it is necessary for young couples with less than five-year experience, Muslims, the no education group and farmers, to be targeted and carried along in the campaign for the use of contraceptive methods.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"5 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140739090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Investigation of Multi-server Queuing Analysis to Assess Hospital Healthcare Systems' Operational Effectiveness 利用多服务器排队分析评估医院医疗系统运行效率的研究

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3601

Mohammed Idris Umar, M. U. Adehi, A. Auwal

{"title":"An Investigation of Multi-server Queuing Analysis to Assess Hospital Healthcare Systems' Operational Effectiveness","authors":"Mohammed Idris Umar, M. U. Adehi, A. Auwal","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3601","url":null,"abstract":"Prolonged wait (queue) times in medical outpatient departments are a growing concern in Nigerian hospitals/clinics, due to a variety of consequences such as overcrowding, patients leaving in anger without being attended to, and being stressed for not staying too long in the system. The primary goal of this paper is to research various techniques or methods for reducing long queues. Patients who wait for minutes, hours, days, or months to receive medical services may incur waiting costs. The time spent in the queue could have been better used elsewhere. This paper aims to determine an optimal server level while keeping total system costs to a minimum, including expected service costs and waiting costs in a multi-server system, to reduce patient congestion in the hospital. Data for the study was collected in two ways. The secondary method was first used to identify the most congested OPD among the numerous OPDs considered in the study. The performance measures costs were then calculated using primary data. The performance measures of the queuing system were calculated using TORA optimization software. MS Excel was used to calculate the costs and plot the charts. Based on the results of the analysis, it was suggested that one physician be added to the hospital's medical OPD to reduce patient overcrowding and wait times. As a result, this call for refocusing is issued to improve overall patient care in our cultural context while also meeting the needs of patients in our society.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"28 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140373038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling Self Help Groups’ Impact on Livelihoods in Murang’a East Sub-County: A Logistic Regression Approach 穆朗阿东分县自助团体对生计的影响建模：逻辑回归方法

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3596

Jane Wangui Runo, A. Anapapa, E. Nyarige

{"title":"Modeling Self Help Groups’ Impact on Livelihoods in Murang’a East Sub-County: A Logistic Regression Approach","authors":"Jane Wangui Runo, A. Anapapa, E. Nyarige","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3596","url":null,"abstract":"According to the World Bank (2022), approximately 8.9 million people, or 17% of Kenya’s population, live below the poverty line of 1.9 USD on a daily basis, majority of them in the rural areas. This research aimed to analyze the impact of self-help groups on the livelihoods of rural areas of Kenya, with the goal of promoting sustainable livelihoods and reducing poverty. To achieve this, the study employed machine learning specifically the logistic regression algorithm to model the impact of self-help groups on livelihoods in Murang’a East sub-county. The study used primary data obtained through the issuance of structured questionnaires to SHG members, on their wealth status since joining the self-help groups on areas such as ability to save, access to credit services and acquiring assets, both income generating and household. A total of 969 members of self-help groups were issued with the questionnaire. The study’s findings helped identify the key predictors of members’ livelihoods and provided insights into how self-help groups influence them. The results of logistic regression indicated that 91.33% of the members had seen a significant improvement on their wealth status since joining self-help groups and the significant predictor variables were income generating assets, access to basic commodities and access to loans. The model’s accuracy was 88.04%. The ethical considerations in this study included ensuring no coercion or pressure to participate in the study and confidentiality and privacy of the respondents.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"27 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140409151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Application of Random Forest in Modeling the Prevalence of Depression among Murang’a University of Technology Students 随机森林在穆朗阿理工大学学生抑郁症患病率建模中的应用

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i2595

Wahome Muthoni Loise, John W. Mutuguta, E. Nyarige

{"title":"Application of Random Forest in Modeling the Prevalence of Depression among Murang’a University of Technology Students","authors":"Wahome Muthoni Loise, John W. Mutuguta, E. Nyarige","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i2595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i2595","url":null,"abstract":"Around the world, depression is a prevalent mental illness and it affects the way people think, feel, talk and conduct their daily activities. The associated stigma often leads to misdiagnosis, posing risks such as disability and suicide. The study employed random forest algorithm to model the prevalence of depression among Murang’a University of technology (MUT) students. A sample of 1448 students from the different schools at the university participated in the study by completing questionnaires on sociodemographic and other factors associated with depression. The questionnaires were administered through social media platforms. Participants were selected using proportionate stratified random sampling and simple random sampling to ensure that a representative sample was chosen from each school. The data gathered was examined using descriptive and inferential statistics. Depression was measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire scale (PHQ-9). Using a cut-off point of 10, 25.97% students had depressive symptoms. This comprised of 19.61% moderate symptoms and 6.35% severe symptoms. The confusion matrix criteria were used to assess the performance of random forest in modeling depression prevalence among MUT students. Metrics for random forest included, accuracy (0.9868), sensitivity (0.95), specificity (1.00), positive predictive value (1.00), and negative predictive value (0.9824). Implementing targeted interventions founded on identified risk and protective factors and exploring the long-term outcomes of these interventions would contribute to the evolving field of mental health research within academic settings.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"27 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140413921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysing the Nexus between the Financial Sector and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Comparative Investigation using, BVAR, Linear Regression (OLS), and PPML Models 分析尼日利亚金融部门与经济增长之间的关系：使用 BVAR、线性回归 (OLS) 和 PPML 模型的比较研究

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3597

Kingdom Nwuju, I. B. Lekara-Bayo, S. N. Nwanneako, Y. A. Da-Wariboko

{"title":"Analysing the Nexus between the Financial Sector and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Comparative Investigation using, BVAR, Linear Regression (OLS), and PPML Models","authors":"Kingdom Nwuju, I. B. Lekara-Bayo, S. N. Nwanneako, Y. A. Da-Wariboko","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3597","url":null,"abstract":"Aims: This study aims to analyze the complex relationship between the financial sector and economic growth in Nigeria. The study aims to provide comprehensive insights into this nexus by employing a comparative investigation using three distinct models: Linear Regression, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), and Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR). \u0000Methodology: The study then applied three different models, with a specific focus on the BVAR(2) model, supported by various diagnostic tests and stability assessments. The inclusion of Linear regression analysis and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML) enhances the depth of the study, providing nuanced insights into the impact of specific financial sector variables on economic growth. \u0000Results: The BVAR (2) model emerges as the optimal choice, demonstrating its reliability in capturing dynamic interactions and offering a powerful tool for policymakers. Specific results, such as the significant negative impact of D(CPS) in the regression analysis and the high R-squared in PPML, provide actionable insights into areas requiring policy interventions and underscore the substantial contribution of the financial sector to economic growth. \u0000Conclusion: The comparative assessment of model performances, favoring the BVAR model, guides future research and policy considerations, providing a reliable framework for further investigations. The study's insights are positioned as valuable for policymakers seeking to enhance economic growth through strategic interventions in the financial sector. Overall, the abstract succinctly encapsulates the aims, methodology, results, and concluding implications of the study on the nexus between the financial sector and economic growth in Nigeria.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"2020 48","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140415826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0