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Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics最新文献

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Monthly Rainfall Forecasting Using High Order Singh’s Fuzzy Time Series Based on Interval Ratio Methods: Case Study Semarang City, Indonesia 使用基于区间比方法的高阶辛格模糊时间序列进行月降雨量预报：印度尼西亚三宝垄市案例研究
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8638
Erikha Feriyanto, Farikhin, N. P. Puspita
{"title":"Monthly Rainfall Forecasting Using High Order Singh’s Fuzzy Time Series Based on Interval Ratio Methods: Case Study Semarang City, Indonesia","authors":"Erikha Feriyanto, Farikhin, N. P. Puspita","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8638","url":null,"abstract":"Aims: Sample: To determine the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method, namely Singh's fuzzy time series based on high order (third order) interval ratios. And find out the forecasting results in January 2022. \u0000Study Design:  Modification of Singh's fuzzy time series based on interval ratios. \u0000Place and Duration of Study: Sample: monthly rainfall data for Semarang City from January 2017 to December 2021. \u0000Methodology: The method proposed by the researcher is the Singh fuzzy time series forecasting method based on high order (third order) interval ratios. This research method uses a combination of Chen and Singh's fuzzy time series. Applying Chen's fuzzy time series in the section determining the universe of discourse () to fuzzification which includes determining the universe of discourse, determining interval partitions, forming Fuzzy Logical Relationships and Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups. Then apply Singh's fuzzy time series to the forecasting part. Finally, calculate the Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER) to test forecasting performance. In the forecasting part, it is obtained through a heuristic approach by building high order forecasting rules to obtain better results and have an effect on very small AFER values. In the step of determining the interval partition, this research uses the interval ratio method which aims to reflect variations in historical data. \u0000Conclusion: Based on the calculation of the AFER value, the AFER for third order is 0.2422%. It can be said that Singh's fuzzy time series forecasting method based on high order (third order) interval ratios on monthly rainfall data for Semarang City from January 2017 to December 2021 is very good. And the rainfall forecast for January 2022 is 196.80 mm3 or into the category of very heavy rain.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"35 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141813905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Three-Parameters Gumbel Distribution: Properties and Application 三参数 Gumbel 分布：特性与应用
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8636
Otieno Kevin Okumu, O. J. Ouno, A. Karanjah, S. N. Muthiga
{"title":"Three-Parameters Gumbel Distribution: Properties and Application","authors":"Otieno Kevin Okumu, O. J. Ouno, A. Karanjah, S. N. Muthiga","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8636","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>.</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"60 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141819218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Continuous Erlang Mixtures and their Relation to Exponential Mixtures and Poisson Mixtures 连续二朗混合物及其与指数混合物和泊松混合物的关系
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8637
Beatrice M. Gathongo
{"title":"Continuous Erlang Mixtures and their Relation to Exponential Mixtures and Poisson Mixtures","authors":"Beatrice M. Gathongo","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8637","url":null,"abstract":"This study provides a novel method for obtaining Erlang mixtures from a mixed Poisson process. The study solved the basic differential equations of the Poisson process to obtain the Poisson distribution. The waiting time distribution in a Poisson process is illustrated as an Erlang distribution. The study also presented the Erlang mixture as the first passage time distribution in the mixed Poisson process, which was expressed using both the direct method and the method of moments. Moreover, these two ways of inferring a mathematical identity have been equated. The exponential mixture and Poisson mixture are explained as special cases of the Erlang mixture. A practical example is given, using type II gamma distribution mixtures. Properties of the mixtures, such as raw moments and probability generating function, are analyzed.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"108 46","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141820468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficiency of Modified Exponential Dual to Ratio-Product-Cum Type Estimator under Stratified Sampling Using Two Auxiliary Variables 使用两个辅助变量的分层抽样下修正指数双比乘积兼型估计器的效率
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8635
Haruna Suleiman, Jibrin Abdullahi Yafu, Audu Ahmed
{"title":"Efficiency of Modified Exponential Dual to Ratio-Product-Cum Type Estimator under Stratified Sampling Using Two Auxiliary Variables","authors":"Haruna Suleiman, Jibrin Abdullahi Yafu, Audu Ahmed","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8635","url":null,"abstract":"Separate and Combined dual to ratio-product-cum estimators of the population mean under stratified random sampling scheme are suggested using the ideas and the analogy of (Walsh [1], Reddy [2], Tripathi [3]) and adopted strategy initiated by (Koyuncu and Kadilar [4], Singh et al., [5], Yasmeen et al., [6], Rather and Kadilar [7]) as well as the two auxiliaries variable. Asymptotic properties of proposed estimators such as BIASs, MSEs and MMSEs up to first order of approximation by Tailor series approach were deduced and reported. Performance is evaluated and examined with others related estimators considered using empirical study utilized two natural populations and simulated data sets. The statistical package R plus is used for computations. However, Results eventually indicated the superiority of proposed estimators over existing traditional estimators mentioned in studied.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"116 36","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141821114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Propositions Pertaining to the Riemann Hypothesis III 关于黎曼假说的命题 III
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8634
Pathikrit Basu
{"title":"On Propositions Pertaining to the Riemann Hypothesis III","authors":"Pathikrit Basu","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i8634","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we consider further propositions concerning the range of possible distributions over the unit circle, for the Riemann zeta function as in prior research. We also derive some new upper bounds on the sum of norms for the tail sequence corresponding to the Riemann zeta function. We discuss some hypotheses, conditional on which, properties of concentrated distributions may be obtained. Specific sub-classes are shown of distributions that occur infinitely often along the imaginary axis.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":" 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141829708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Travel Salesman Problem Using Dynamic Programming 使用动态编程的旅行推销员问题
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6625
Anosike Joseph Ugonna, Amagoh Maureen Nkechi, Orumie, Ukamaka Cynthia
{"title":"Travel Salesman Problem Using Dynamic Programming","authors":"Anosike Joseph Ugonna, Amagoh Maureen Nkechi, Orumie, Ukamaka Cynthia","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6625","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6625","url":null,"abstract":"In the fields of operations research and computer science, the traveling salesman problem (also known as TSP) is a classic algorithmic issue. One method for solving TSP is dynamic programming, which identifies the optimal path at the lowest possible cost. It starts by determining the shortest path between two points, and then it expands to identify routes to other sites. In order to solve the Travel salesman Problem, Dynamic Programming was used in this study as a a solution technique. In addition to a real-world application from AM-EXPRESS NIGERIA LIMITED, illustrative examples of travel salesman difficulties were taken into consideration and handled utilizing the dynamic programming technique. The finding's outcome showed that the least amount of money needed to provide logistical services is ₦6500, and the shortest possible paths or routes were found.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"5 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141267538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection 调查结核病或 COVID-19 感染对结核病/COVID-19 合并感染人群的影响
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6624
Mary Ng’endo Githinji, Isaac Chepkwony
{"title":"Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection","authors":"Mary Ng’endo Githinji, Isaac Chepkwony","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6624","url":null,"abstract":"The discovery that the spread of tuberculosis reduced significantly in the last two years has been associated with the preventive measures placed to combat the spread of COVID-19. This shows a string correlation between the spread of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in any population. It is worth noting that tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the leading most deadly diseases in the world today. The correlation in their spread also leaves us to believe that the spread of one can enhance the spread of the other. Hence, we propose the situation where a population is co-infected with the two diseases. The mathematical model is formulated using conservative laws and the resulting model analysed. The stability of the co-infection is analysed and the non-negativity conditions for the solution is established. It is found that tuberculosis sub-population reaches the highest capacity when the recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the lowest while the COVID-19 sub-population is attained when the rate of recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the highest.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"86 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141267888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Construction of two New Second Order Rotatable Designs Using Trigonometric Functions 利用三角函数构建两个新的二阶可旋转设计
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6623
N. O. Cornelious, Japheth Maisiba Ogega
{"title":"Construction of two New Second Order Rotatable Designs Using Trigonometric Functions","authors":"N. O. Cornelious, Japheth Maisiba Ogega","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i6623","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, two new second order rotatable designs of thirty-five and forty-five points are constructed respectively using transformations of some trigonometric functions. The designs are s rotatable since they satisfy both the outlined moment conditions and the non-singularity conditions. Second-order rotatable designs are useful for optimizing these processes in chemical industries, agriculture and engineering by systematically varying the factors of interest and studying their combined effects on the response variables. This helps in identifying the optimal settings for maximum or minimum responses.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"6 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141271447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Some Stochastic Ordering Comparisons for Renewal Processes 论更新过程的一些随机排序比较
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4609
Suman Kalyan Ghosh, S. Ravi
{"title":"On Some Stochastic Ordering Comparisons for Renewal Processes","authors":"Suman Kalyan Ghosh, S. Ravi","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4609","url":null,"abstract":"After a brief introduction to ordinary renewal process, we have defined compound renewal process generated by an ordinary renewal process followed by the distributional properties of the corresponding random variables. A few results are obtained by comparing independent renewal processes with respect to several stochastic orderings between the generating inter-arrival time random variables, like, stochastic order, hazard rate order, likelihood ratio order and variability order, as well as some ageing classes of the generating random variables. Some numerical illustrations are given. The results obtained here appear to be new.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140671979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing Urban Tourism Development Efficiency: Based on a DEA Approach 评估城市旅游开发效率：基于 DEA 方法
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-20 DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4608
Hongjie Fan, Changlin Wan
{"title":"Assessing Urban Tourism Development Efficiency: Based on a DEA Approach","authors":"Hongjie Fan, Changlin Wan","doi":"10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i4608","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the data of 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province, eight indicators in the three directions of environmental pollution, resource input and labor input are selected as input variables. The output indicators include economic and social benefits. Combining the traditional DEA and SBM super efficiency data envelopment analysis model, the super efficiency value and ranking of tourism development of each prefecture level city under the non-oriented and variable return to scale model are obtained. This paper analyzes the development efficiency of tourism in this period from the prefecture level city and regional level, and puts forward reasonable suggestions. Increase the development of tourism resources; Improve the urban tourism system with weak potential; Promote regional cooperation and linkage development; Promote the common growth of tourism industry and regional economy.","PeriodicalId":502163,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":" 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140681495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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