npj Complexity最新文献

Rebound in epidemic control: how misaligned vaccination timing amplifies infection peaks 流行病控制中的反弹：疫苗接种时间错位如何放大感染高峰

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00020-0

Piergiorgio Castioni, Sergio Gómez, Clara Granell, Alex Arenas

{"title":"Rebound in epidemic control: how misaligned vaccination timing amplifies infection peaks","authors":"Piergiorgio Castioni, Sergio Gómez, Clara Granell, Alex Arenas","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00020-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00020-0","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through modeling and comprehensive data analysis of model output, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive phenomenon: initiating a vaccination process at an inopportune moment can paradoxically result in a more pronounced second peak of infections. This “rebound” phenomenon challenges the conventional understanding of vaccination impacts on epidemic dynamics. We provide a detailed examination of how improperly timed vaccination efforts can inadvertently reduce the overall immunity level in a population, considering both natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings reveal that such a decrease in population-wide immunity can lead to a delayed, yet more severe, resurgence of cases. This study not only adds a critical dimension to our understanding of vaccination strategies in controlling pandemics but also underscores the necessity for strategically timed interventions to optimize public health outcomes. Furthermore, we compute which vaccination strategies are optimal for a COVID-19 tailored mathematical model, and find that there are two types of optimal strategies. The first type prioritizes vaccinating early and rapidly to reduce the number of deaths, while the second type acts later and more slowly to reduce the number of cases; both of them target primarily the elderly population. Our results hold significant implications for the formulation of vaccination policies, particularly in the context of rapidly evolving infectious diseases.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00020-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Triangulation for causal loop diagrams: constructing biopsychosocial models using group model building, literature review, and causal discovery 因果循环图的三角测量：利用群体模型构建、文献综述和因果发现构建生物-心理-社会模型

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00017-9

Jeroen F. Uleman, Maartje Luijten, Wilson F. Abdo, Jana Vyrastekova, Andreas Gerhardus, Jakob Runge, Naja Hulvej Rod, Maaike Verhagen

{"title":"Triangulation for causal loop diagrams: constructing biopsychosocial models using group model building, literature review, and causal discovery","authors":"Jeroen F. Uleman, Maartje Luijten, Wilson F. Abdo, Jana Vyrastekova, Andreas Gerhardus, Jakob Runge, Naja Hulvej Rod, Maaike Verhagen","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00017-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00017-9","url":null,"abstract":"The complex nature of many health problems necessitates the use of systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to visualize the underlying causal network and facilitate computational simulations of potential interventions. However, the construction of CLDs is limited by the constraints and biases of specific sources of evidence. To address this, we propose a triangulation approach that integrates expert and theory-driven group model building, literature review, and data-driven causal discovery. We demonstrate the utility of this triangulation approach using a case example focused on the trajectory of depressive symptoms in response to a stressor in healthy adults. After triangulation with causal discovery, the CLD exhibited (1) greater comprehensiveness, encompassing multiple research fields; (2) a modified feedback structure; and (3) increased transparency regarding the uncertainty of evidence in the model structure. These findings suggest that triangulation can produce higher-quality CLDs, potentially advancing our understanding of complex diseases.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00017-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142579801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How U.S. Presidential elections strengthen global hate networks 美国总统选举如何强化全球仇恨网络

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00018-8

Akshay Verma, Richard Sear, Neil Johnson

{"title":"How U.S. Presidential elections strengthen global hate networks","authors":"Akshay Verma, Richard Sear, Neil Johnson","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00018-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00018-8","url":null,"abstract":"Local or national politics can be a catalyst for potentially dangerous hate speech. But with a third of the world’s population eligible to vote in 2024 elections, we need an understanding of how individual-level hate multiplies up to the collective global scale. We show, based on the most recent U.S. presidential election, that offline events are associated with rapid adaptations of the global online hate universe that strengthens both its network-of-networks structure and the types of hate content that it collectively produces. Approximately 50 million accounts in hate communities are drawn closer to each other and to a broad mainstream of billions. The election triggered new hate content at scale around immigration, ethnicity, and antisemitism that aligns with conspiracy theories about Jewish-led replacement. Telegram acts as a key hardening agent; yet, it is overlooked by U.S. Congressional hearings and new E.U. legislation. Because the hate universe has remained robust since 2020, anti-hate messaging surrounding global events (e.g., upcoming elections or the war in Gaza) should pivot to blending multiple hate types while targeting previously untouched social media structures.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00018-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Author Correction: Networks and identity drive the spatial diffusion of linguistic innovation in urban and rural areas 作者更正：网络和身份认同推动语言创新在城乡地区的空间扩散

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00019-7

Aparna Ananthasubramaniam, David Jurgens, Daniel M. Romero

引用次数: 0

Urban residential clustering and mobility of ethnic groups: impact of fertility 城市住宅集群和种族群体的流动性：生育率的影响

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00016-w

Kunal Bhattacharya, Chandreyee Roy, Tuomas Takko, Anna Rotkirch, Kimmo Kaski

引用次数: 0

Correlating measures of hierarchical structures in artificial neural networks with their performance 人工神经网络中分层结构的测量方法与其性能的相关性

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00015-x

Zhuoying Xu, Yingjun Zhu, Binbin Hong, Xinlin Wu, Jingwen Zhang, Mufeng Cai, Da Zhou, Yu Liu

{"title":"Correlating measures of hierarchical structures in artificial neural networks with their performance","authors":"Zhuoying Xu, Yingjun Zhu, Binbin Hong, Xinlin Wu, Jingwen Zhang, Mufeng Cai, Da Zhou, Yu Liu","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00015-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00015-x","url":null,"abstract":"This study employs the recently developed Ladderpath approach, within the broader category of Algorithmic Information Theory (AIT), which characterizes the hierarchical and nested relationships among repeating substructures, to explore the structure-function relationship in neural networks, multilayer perceptrons (MLP), in particular. The metric order-rate η, derived from the approach, is a measure of structural orderliness: when η is in the middle range (around 0.5), the structure exhibits the richest hierarchical relationships, corresponding to the highest complexity. We hypothesize that the highest structural complexity correlates with optimal functionality. Our experiments support this hypothesis in several ways: networks with η values in the middle range show superior performance, and the training processes tend to naturally adjust η towards this range; additionally, starting neural networks with η values in this middle range appears to boost performance. Intriguingly, these findings align with observations in other distinct systems, including chemical molecules and protein sequences, hinting at a hidden regularity encapsulated by this theoretical framework.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00015-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142360064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Networks and identity drive the spatial diffusion of linguistic innovation in urban and rural areas 网络和身份认同推动语言创新在城乡地区的空间传播

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00009-9

Aparna Ananthasubramaniam, David Jurgens, Daniel M. Romero

{"title":"Networks and identity drive the spatial diffusion of linguistic innovation in urban and rural areas","authors":"Aparna Ananthasubramaniam, David Jurgens, Daniel M. Romero","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00009-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00009-9","url":null,"abstract":"Cultural innovation (e.g., music, beliefs, language) tends to be adopted regionally. The geographic area where innovation is adopted is often attributed to one of two factors: (i) speakers adopting new behaviors that signal their demographic identities (i.e., an identity effect), or (ii) these behaviors spreading through homophilous networks (i.e., a network effect). In this study, we show that network and identity play complementary roles in determining where new language is adopted; thus, modeling the diffusion of lexical innovation requires incorporating both network and identity. We develop an agent-based model of cultural adoption, and validate geographic properties in our simulations against a dataset of innovative words that we identify from a 10% sample of Twitter (e.g., fleeky, birbs, ubering). Using our model, we are able to directly test the roles of network and identity by comparing a model that combines network and identity against simulated network-only and identity-only counterfactuals. We show that both effects influence different mechanisms of diffusion. Specifically, network principally drives spread among urban counties via weak-tie diffusion, while identity plays a disproportionate role in transmission among rural counties via strong-tie diffusion. Diffusion between urban and rural areas, a key component in innovation spreading nationally, requires both network and identity. Our work suggests that models must integrate both factors in order to understand and reproduce the adoption of innovation.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00009-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142117959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Feature-aware ultra-low dimensional reduction of real networks 对真实网络进行特征感知的超低维缩减

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00013-z

Robert Jankowski, Pegah Hozhabrierdi, Marián Boguñá, M. Ángeles Serrano

{"title":"Feature-aware ultra-low dimensional reduction of real networks","authors":"Robert Jankowski, Pegah Hozhabrierdi, Marián Boguñá, M. Ángeles Serrano","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00013-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00013-z","url":null,"abstract":"In existing models and embedding methods of networked systems, node features describing their qualities are usually overlooked in favor of focusing solely on node connectivity. This study introduces FiD-Mercator, a model-based ultra-low dimensional reduction technique that integrates node features with network structure to create D-dimensional maps of complex networks in a hyperbolic space. This embedding method efficiently uses features as an initial condition, guiding the search of nodes’ coordinates toward an optimal solution. The research reveals that downstream task performance improves with the correlation between network connectivity and features, emphasizing the importance of such correlation for enhancing the description and predictability of real networks. Simultaneously, hyperbolic embedding’s ability to reproduce local network properties remains unaffected by the inclusion of features. The findings highlight the necessity for developing network embedding techniques capable of exploiting such correlations to optimize both network structure and feature association jointly in the future.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00013-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142117961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Upper bounds on overshoot in SIR models with nonlinear incidence 非线性入射的 SIR 模型超调上限

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00010-2

Maximilian M. Nguyen

引用次数: 0

Antifragility in complex dynamical systems 复杂动力系统中的反脆弱

npj Complexity Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00014-y

Cristian Axenie, Oliver López-Corona, Michail A. Makridis, Meisam Akbarzadeh, Matteo Saveriano, Alexandru Stancu, Jeffrey West

{"title":"Antifragility in complex dynamical systems","authors":"Cristian Axenie, Oliver López-Corona, Michail A. Makridis, Meisam Akbarzadeh, Matteo Saveriano, Alexandru Stancu, Jeffrey West","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00014-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00014-y","url":null,"abstract":"Antifragility characterizes the benefit of a dynamical system derived from the variability in environmental perturbations. Antifragility carries a precise definition that quantifies a system’s output response to input variability. Systems may respond poorly to perturbations (fragile) or benefit from perturbations (antifragile). In this manuscript, we review a range of applications of antifragility theory in technical systems (e.g., traffic control, robotics) and natural systems (e.g., cancer therapy, antibiotics). While there is a broad overlap in methods used to quantify and apply antifragility across disciplines, there is a need for precisely defining the scales at which antifragility operates. Thus, we provide a brief general introduction to the properties of antifragility in applied systems and review relevant literature for both natural and technical systems’ antifragility. We frame this review within three scales common to technical systems: intrinsic (input–output nonlinearity), inherited (extrinsic environmental signals), and induced (feedback control), with associated counterparts in biological systems: ecological (homogeneous systems), evolutionary (heterogeneous systems), and interventional (control). We use the common noun in designing systems that exhibit antifragile behavior across scales and guide the reader along the spectrum of fragility–adaptiveness–resilience–robustness–antifragility, the principles behind it, and its practical implications.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00014-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0