arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure最新文献

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Can market volumes reveal traders' rationality and a new risk premium? 市场交易量能否揭示交易者的理性和新的风险溢价?
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: arxiv-2406.05854
Francesca Mariani, Maria Cristina Recchioni, Tai-Ho Wang, Roberto Giacalone
{"title":"Can market volumes reveal traders' rationality and a new risk premium?","authors":"Francesca Mariani, Maria Cristina Recchioni, Tai-Ho Wang, Roberto Giacalone","doi":"arxiv-2406.05854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.05854","url":null,"abstract":"An empirical analysis, suggested by optimal Merton dynamics, reveals some\u0000unexpected features of asset volumes. These features are connected to traders'\u0000belief and risk aversion. This paper proposes a trading strategy model in the\u0000optimal Merton framework that is representative of the collective behavior of\u0000heterogeneous rational traders. This model allows for the estimation of the\u0000average risk aversion of traders acting on a specific risky asset, while\u0000revealing the existence of a price of risk closely related to market price of\u0000risk and volume rate. The empirical analysis, conducted on real data, confirms\u0000the validity of the proposed model.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141508505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electricity Spot Prices Forecasting Using Stochastic Volatility Models 利用随机波动模型预测电力现货价格
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: arxiv-2406.19405
Andrei Renatovich Batyrov
{"title":"Electricity Spot Prices Forecasting Using Stochastic Volatility Models","authors":"Andrei Renatovich Batyrov","doi":"arxiv-2406.19405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.19405","url":null,"abstract":"There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as\u0000applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is\u0000to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic\u0000volatility (variance of price). The goal of the research is to generate\u0000probabilistic forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices in a spot marker\u0000employing stochastic volatility models. A typical stochastic volatility model -\u0000that treats the volatility as a latent stochastic process in discrete time - is\u0000explored first. Then the research focuses on enriching the baseline model by\u0000introducing several exogenous regressors. A better fitting model - as compared\u0000to the baseline model - is derived as a result of the research. Out-of-sample\u0000forecasts confirm the applicability and robustness of the enriched model. This\u0000model may be used in financial derivative instruments for hedging the risk\u0000associated with electricity trading. Keywords: Electricity spot prices\u0000forecasting, Stochastic volatility, Exogenous regressors, Autoregression,\u0000Bayesian inference, Stan","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141512593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroscopic Market Making Games 宏观造市游戏
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: arxiv-2406.05662
Ivan Guo, Shijia Jin, Kihun Nam
{"title":"Macroscopic Market Making Games","authors":"Ivan Guo, Shijia Jin, Kihun Nam","doi":"arxiv-2406.05662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.05662","url":null,"abstract":"In continuation of the macroscopic market making `a la Avellaneda-Stoikov as\u0000a control problem, this paper explores its stochastic game. Concerning the\u0000price competition, each agent is compared with the best quote from the others.\u0000We start with the linear case. While constructing the solution directly, the\u0000ordering property and the dimension reduction in the equilibrium are revealed.\u0000For the non-linear case, extending the decoupling approach, we introduce a\u0000multidimensional characteristic equation to study the well-posedness of\u0000forward-backward stochastic differential equations. Properties of coefficients\u0000in the characteristic equation are obtained via non-smooth analysis. In\u0000addition to novel well-posedness results, the linear price impact arises and\u0000the impact function can be further decomposed into two parts in some examples.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"91 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141508506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Algebraic Framework for the Modeling of Limit Order Books 限价订单簿建模的代数框架
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: arxiv-2406.04969
Johannes Bleher, Michael Bleher
{"title":"An Algebraic Framework for the Modeling of Limit Order Books","authors":"Johannes Bleher, Michael Bleher","doi":"arxiv-2406.04969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.04969","url":null,"abstract":"Introducing an algebraic framework for modeling limit order books (LOBs) with\u0000tools from physics and stochastic processes, our proposed framework captures\u0000the creation and annihilation of orders, order matching, and the time evolution\u0000of the LOB state. It also enables compositional settings, accommodating the\u0000interaction of heterogeneous traders and different market structures. We employ\u0000Dirac notation and generalized generating functions to describe the state space\u0000and dynamics of LOBs. The utility of this framework is shown through\u0000simulations of simplified market scenarios, illustrating how variations in\u0000trader behavior impact key market observables such as spread, return\u0000volatility, and liquidity. The algebraic representation allows for exact\u0000simulations using the Gillespie algorithm, providing a robust tool for\u0000exploring the implications of market design and policy changes on LOB dynamics.\u0000Future research can expand this framework to incorporate more complex order\u0000types, adaptive event rates, and multi-asset trading environments, offering\u0000deeper insights into market microstructure and trader behavior and estimation\u0000of key drivers for market microstructure dynamics.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mean field equilibrium asset pricing model with habit formation 具有习惯养成的均值场均衡资产定价模型
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: arxiv-2406.02155
Masaaki Fujii, Masashi Sekine
{"title":"Mean field equilibrium asset pricing model with habit formation","authors":"Masaaki Fujii, Masashi Sekine","doi":"arxiv-2406.02155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.02155","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an asset pricing model in an incomplete market involving\u0000a large number of heterogeneous agents based on the mean field game theory. In\u0000the model, we incorporate habit formation in consumption preferences, which has\u0000been widely used to explain various phenomena in financial economics. In order\u0000to characterize the market-clearing equilibrium, we derive a quadratic-growth\u0000mean field backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) and study its\u0000well-posedness and asymptotic behavior in the large population limit.\u0000Additionally, we introduce an exponential quadratic Gaussian reformulation of\u0000the asset pricing model, in which the solution is obtained in a semi-analytic\u0000form.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"11960 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141254693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
MOT: A Mixture of Actors Reinforcement Learning Method by Optimal Transport for Algorithmic Trading MOT:针对算法交易的最优传输强化学习方法
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: arxiv-2407.01577
Xi Cheng, Jinghao Zhang, Yunan Zeng, Wenfang Xue
{"title":"MOT: A Mixture of Actors Reinforcement Learning Method by Optimal Transport for Algorithmic Trading","authors":"Xi Cheng, Jinghao Zhang, Yunan Zeng, Wenfang Xue","doi":"arxiv-2407.01577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.01577","url":null,"abstract":"Algorithmic trading refers to executing buy and sell orders for specific\u0000assets based on automatically identified trading opportunities. Strategies\u0000based on reinforcement learning (RL) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities\u0000in addressing algorithmic trading problems. However, the trading patterns\u0000differ among market conditions due to shifted distribution data. Ignoring\u0000multiple patterns in the data will undermine the performance of RL. In this\u0000paper, we propose MOT,which designs multiple actors with disentangled\u0000representation learning to model the different patterns of the market.\u0000Furthermore, we incorporate the Optimal Transport (OT) algorithm to allocate\u0000samples to the appropriate actor by introducing a regularization loss term.\u0000Additionally, we propose Pretrain Module to facilitate imitation learning by\u0000aligning the outputs of actors with expert strategy and better balance the\u0000exploration and exploitation of RL. Experimental results on real futures market\u0000data demonstrate that MOT exhibits excellent profit capabilities while\u0000balancing risks. Ablation studies validate the effectiveness of the components\u0000of MOT.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141512594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Loss-Versus-Fair: Efficiency of Dutch Auctions on Blockchains 损失与公平:区块链上荷兰式拍卖的效率
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: arxiv-2406.00113
Ciamac C. Moallemi, Dan Robinson
{"title":"Loss-Versus-Fair: Efficiency of Dutch Auctions on Blockchains","authors":"Ciamac C. Moallemi, Dan Robinson","doi":"arxiv-2406.00113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.00113","url":null,"abstract":"Milionis et al.(2023) studied the rate at which automated market makers leak\u0000value to arbitrageurs when block times are discrete and follow a Poisson\u0000process, and where the risky asset price follows a geometric Brownian motion.\u0000We extend their model to analyze another popular mechanism in decentralized\u0000finance for onchain trading: Dutch auctions. We compute the expected losses\u0000that a seller incurs to arbitrageurs and expected time-to-fill for Dutch\u0000auctions as a function of starting price, volatility, decay rate, and average\u0000interblock time. We also extend the analysis to gradual Dutch auctions, a\u0000variation on Dutch auctions for selling tokens over time at a continuous rate.\u0000We use these models to explore the tradeoff between speed of execution and\u0000quality of execution, which could help inform practitioners in setting\u0000parameters for starting price and decay rate on Dutch auctions, or help\u0000platform designers determine performance parameters like block times.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141259686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimizing Broker Performance Evaluation through Intraday Modeling of Execution Cost 通过日内执行成本建模优化经纪商绩效评估
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: arxiv-2405.18936
Zoltan Eisler, Johannes Muhle-Karbe
{"title":"Optimizing Broker Performance Evaluation through Intraday Modeling of Execution Cost","authors":"Zoltan Eisler, Johannes Muhle-Karbe","doi":"arxiv-2405.18936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.18936","url":null,"abstract":"Minimizing execution costs for large orders is a fundamental challenge in\u0000finance. Firms often depend on brokers to manage their trades due to limited\u0000internal resources for optimizing trading strategies. This paper presents a\u0000methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of broker execution algorithms\u0000using trading data. We focus on two primary cost components: a linear cost that\u0000quantifies short-term execution quality and a quadratic cost associated with\u0000the price impact of trades. Using a model with transient price impact, we\u0000derive analytical formulas for estimating these costs. Furthermore, we enhance\u0000estimation accuracy by introducing novel methods such as weighting price\u0000changes based on their expected impact content. Our results demonstrate\u0000substantial improvements in estimating both linear and impact costs, providing\u0000a robust and efficient framework for selecting the most cost-effective brokers.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141191510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
HLOB -- Information Persistence and Structure in Limit Order Books HLOB -- 限价订单簿中的信息持久性和结构
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: arxiv-2405.18938
Antonio Briola, Silvia Bartolucci, Tomaso Aste
{"title":"HLOB -- Information Persistence and Structure in Limit Order Books","authors":"Antonio Briola, Silvia Bartolucci, Tomaso Aste","doi":"arxiv-2405.18938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.18938","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a novel large-scale deep learning model for Limit Order Book\u0000mid-price changes forecasting, and we name it `HLOB'. This architecture (i)\u0000exploits the information encoded by an Information Filtering Network, namely\u0000the Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph, to unveil deeper and non-trivial\u0000dependency structures among volume levels; and (ii) guarantees deterministic\u0000design choices to handle the complexity of the underlying system by drawing\u0000inspiration from the groundbreaking class of Homological Convolutional Neural\u0000Networks. We test our model against 9 state-of-the-art deep learning\u0000alternatives on 3 real-world Limit Order Book datasets, each including 15\u0000stocks traded on the NASDAQ exchange, and we systematically characterize the\u0000scenarios where HLOB outperforms state-of-the-art architectures. Our approach\u0000sheds new light on the spatial distribution of information in Limit Order Books\u0000and on its degradation over increasing prediction horizons, narrowing the gap\u0000between microstructural modeling and deep learning-based forecasting in\u0000high-frequency financial markets.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141191585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Novel Approach to Queue-Reactive Models: The Importance of Order Sizes 队列反应模型的新方法:订单大小的重要性
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: arxiv-2405.18594
Hamza Bodor, Laurent Carlier
{"title":"A Novel Approach to Queue-Reactive Models: The Importance of Order Sizes","authors":"Hamza Bodor, Laurent Carlier","doi":"arxiv-2405.18594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.18594","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we delve into the applications and extensions of the\u0000queue-reactive model for the simulation of limit order books. Our approach\u0000emphasizes the importance of order sizes, in conjunction with their type and\u0000arrival rate, by integrating the current state of the order book to determine,\u0000not only the intensity of order arrivals and their type, but also their sizes.\u0000These extensions generate simulated markets that are in line with numerous\u0000stylized facts of the market. Our empirical calibration, using futures on\u0000German bonds, reveals that the extended queue-reactive model significantly\u0000improves the description of order flow properties and the shape of queue\u0000distributions. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that the extended model\u0000produces simulated markets with a volatility comparable to historical real\u0000data, utilizing only endogenous information from the limit order book. This\u0000research underscores the potential of the queue-reactive model and its\u0000extensions in accurately simulating market dynamics and providing valuable\u0000insights into the complex nature of limit order book modeling.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141191418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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