Carlo Fischer, Anna Frühauf, Lucia Inchauste, Murilo Henrique Anzolini Cassiano, Heriberto Arévalo Ramirez, Karine Barthélémy, Lissete Bautista Machicado, Fernando Augusto Bozza, Carlos Brites, Miguel Mauricio Cabada, César A Cabezas Sánchez, Angie Cervantes Rodríguez, Xavier de Lamballerie, Roxana de los Milagros Peralta Delgado, Edmilson F de Oliveira-Filho, Mathieu Domenech de Cellès, Carlos Franco-Muñoz, María Paquita García Mendoza, Miladi Gatty Nogueira, Rosa-Margarita Gélvez-Ramírez, Jan Felix Drexler
{"title":"The spatiotemporal ecology of Oropouche virus across Latin America: a multidisciplinary, laboratory-based, modelling study","authors":"Carlo Fischer, Anna Frühauf, Lucia Inchauste, Murilo Henrique Anzolini Cassiano, Heriberto Arévalo Ramirez, Karine Barthélémy, Lissete Bautista Machicado, Fernando Augusto Bozza, Carlos Brites, Miguel Mauricio Cabada, César A Cabezas Sánchez, Angie Cervantes Rodríguez, Xavier de Lamballerie, Roxana de los Milagros Peralta Delgado, Edmilson F de Oliveira-Filho, Mathieu Domenech de Cellès, Carlos Franco-Muñoz, María Paquita García Mendoza, Miladi Gatty Nogueira, Rosa-Margarita Gélvez-Ramírez, Jan Felix Drexler","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00110-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00110-0","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Background</h3>Latin America has been experiencing an Oropouche virus (OROV) outbreak of unprecedented magnitude and spread since 2023–24 for unknown reasons. We aimed to identify risk predictors of and areas at risk for OROV transmission.<h3>Methods</h3>In this multidisciplinary, laboratory-based, modelling study, we retrospectively tested anonymised serum samples collected between 2001 and 2022 for studies on virus epidemiology and medical diagnostics in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru with nucleoprotein-based commercial ELISAs for OROV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies. Serum samples positive for IgG from different ecological regions and sampling years were tested against Guaroa virus and two OROV glycoprotein reassortants (Iquitos virus and Madre de Dios virus) via plaque reduction neutralisation testing (PRNT) to validate IgG ELISA specificity and support antigenic cartography. Three OROV strains were included in the neutralisation testing, a Cuban OROV isolate from the 2023–24 outbreak, a contemporary Peruvian OROV isolate taken from a patient in 2020, and a historical OROV isolate from Brazil. We analysed the serological data alongside age, sex, cohort, and geographical residence data for the serum samples; reported OROV incidence data; and vector occurrence data to explore OROV transmission in ecologically different regions of Latin America. We used the MaxEnt machine learning methodology to spatially analyse and predict OROV infection risk across Latin America, fitting one model with presence–absence serological data (seropositive results were recorded as presence and seronegative results were recorded as absence) and one model with presence-only, reported incidence data from 2024. We computed marginal dependency plots, variable contribution, and permutation metrics to analyse the impact of socioecological predictors and fitted a generalised linear mixed-effects model with logit link and binary error structure to analyse the potential effects of age, sex, or cohort type bias and interactions between age or sex and cohort type in our serological data. We conducted antigenic cartography and evolutionary characterisations of all available genomic sequences for all three OROV genome segments from the National Center for Biotechnology Information, including branch-specific selection pressure analysis and the construction of OROV phylogenetic trees.<h3>Findings</h3>In total, 9420 serum samples were included in this study, representing 76 provinces in the six Latin American countries previously mentioned. The sex distribution across the combined cohorts was 48% female (4237 of 8910 samples with available data) and 52% male (4673 of 8910 samples) and the mean age was 29·5 years (range 0–95 years). The samples were collected from census-based cohorts, cohorts of healthy individuals, and cohorts of febrile patients receiving routine health care. The average OROV IgG antibody detection rate was 6·3% (95% CI 5·8–6·8), with","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"108 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143827372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gavi under threat from US funding cuts","authors":"Talha Burki","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00245-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00245-2","url":null,"abstract":"No Abstract","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Olivia Lounsbury, Jane O'Hara, Andrew J Brent, Helen Higham
{"title":"Designing better systems to navigate the sepsis–antimicrobial stewardship tension","authors":"Olivia Lounsbury, Jane O'Hara, Andrew J Brent, Helen Higham","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00119-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00119-7","url":null,"abstract":"Sepsis is a leading cause of preventable death and requires timely antimicrobial treatment to reduce mortality. Despite extensive sepsis management guidelines, high-income countries continue to have considerable rates of sepsis mortality, indicating a gap between guideline quality, usability, and practical application. Simultaneously, the rise of antimicrobial resistance threatens the efficacy of antimicrobial therapies for infection control, underscoring the tension between sepsis management and antimicrobial stewardship. This Personal View explores how system factors, such as people, environments, tools, technologies, and tasks, influence the sepsis–antimicrobial stewardship tension. With the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety, we use a case study to highlight how organisational pressures, inadequate diagnostic tools, and sociocultural factors drive the gap between work-as-imagined and work-as-done. These latent safety risks that impede guideline adherence and contribute to unintended antimicrobial use highlight the need to design better systems, not blame individuals for non-compliance. We argue that addressing sepsis and antimicrobial resistance requires a holistic systems approach and that every discipline, including policy makers, clinicians, researchers, and drug developers, should adopt systems thinking in the design of interventions intended to address this problem. This shift is essential to ensuring effective care for patients today while safeguarding the effectiveness of antimicrobials tomorrow.","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Viktoria V Potochilova, Scott J C Pallett, Luke S P Moore, Matthew K O'Shea, Olena V Moshynets
{"title":"Operationalising antimicrobial resistance surveillance data in conflict areas","authors":"Viktoria V Potochilova, Scott J C Pallett, Luke S P Moore, Matthew K O'Shea, Olena V Moshynets","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00227-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00227-0","url":null,"abstract":"No Abstract","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143798238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abdullah A Al-Rabeeah, Shahul H Ebrahim, Dieudonné Mwamba, John Ditekemena, Christos Christou, Sania Nishtar, Ziad A Memish
{"title":"DR Congo's conflict and cholera: a call for ring vaccination","authors":"Abdullah A Al-Rabeeah, Shahul H Ebrahim, Dieudonné Mwamba, John Ditekemena, Christos Christou, Sania Nishtar, Ziad A Memish","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00229-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00229-4","url":null,"abstract":"No Abstract","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"98 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143782746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}