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Intergenerational Impacts of Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana 中等教育的代际影响：来自加纳的实验证据
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20241001
Esther Duflo,Pascaline Dupas,Elizabeth Spelke,Mark Walsh
{"title":"Intergenerational Impacts of Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana","authors":"Esther Duflo,Pascaline Dupas,Elizabeth Spelke,Mark Walsh","doi":"10.1257/aer.20241001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20241001","url":null,"abstract":"We provide experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial and 15-year longitudinal follow-up. Secondary school scholarships delay fertility, reduce unwanted pregnancies, and change partner selection. Under-one mortality is reduced by half. We also document cognitive development gains of 0.24 standard deviations of test scores by age five among children of female scholarship recipients. Means-tested secondary school scholarships are a high-return investment, with a conservatively estimated US$4.1 in benefits for each US$1 the policy would cost the government in the long run. (JEL H52, I12, I21, I26, J13, J16, O15)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"34 1","pages":"3586-3621"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate Tax Cuts, Firm Growth, and Workers' Earnings 企业减税、企业增长和工人收入
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240404
Patrick J. Kennedy,Christine L. Dobridge,Paul Landefeld,Jacob Mortenson
{"title":"Corporate Tax Cuts, Firm Growth, and Workers' Earnings","authors":"Patrick J. Kennedy,Christine L. Dobridge,Paul Landefeld,Jacob Mortenson","doi":"10.1257/aer.20240404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20240404","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of the largest corporate income tax cut in US history on firms and workers. To identify causal effects, we use employer-employee matched tax records and event studies comparing similarly sized firms in the same industry that faced divergent tax changes due to their preexisting legal status. Tax cuts cause increases in firms' investment, sales, profits, employment, and payrolls, with earnings gains concentrated among highly paid workers. In the short run, 87 percent of private income gains flow to the top 10 percent of the income distribution. (JEL D22, D31, G31, H25, H32, J23, L25)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"3380-3422"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Presidential Address: Neighborhood Effects and Missing Markets for Opportunity 总统演讲：邻里效应和错失机会的市场
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.116.9.3197
Lawrence F. Katz
{"title":"Presidential Address: Neighborhood Effects and Missing Markets for Opportunity","authors":"Lawrence F. Katz","doi":"10.1257/aer.116.9.3197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.116.9.3197","url":null,"abstract":"Experimental and quasi-experimental studies show that childhood neighborhoods have substantial causal impacts on children's adult earnings and other long-term socioeconomic outcomes. Several market failures are likely to lead to excessive residential segregation by parental income and to an undersupply of mixed-income neighborhoods. Missing markets for opportunity originate in capital market imperfections for borrowing on children's future earnings, neighbor spillovers, behavioral biases, and housing search frictions. Customized housing mobility services combined with subsidized housing vouchers can help low-income families move to higher-opportunity areas. Place-based policies that create mixed-income neighborhoods appear to increase long-term outcomes for less-advantaged children. (JEL I12, I32, I38, J13, J15, R23, R38)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"10 1","pages":"3197-3222"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk-Sharing Tests and Covariate Shocks: Drought, Floods, and Pests in Uganda 风险分担测试和协变量冲击：乌干达的干旱、洪水和害虫
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240664
Ethan Ligon
{"title":"Risk-Sharing Tests and Covariate Shocks: Drought, Floods, and Pests in Uganda","authors":"Ethan Ligon","doi":"10.1257/aer.20240664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20240664","url":null,"abstract":"Efficient risk sharing implies a simple factor structure for marginal utilities of expenditure (MUEs): Pareto weights divided by a common price. The standard approach infers MUEs from total expenditures, implicitly assuming homothetic preferences, unitary income elasticities, and identical price elasticities. Risk-sharing tests using total expenditures work for idiosyncratic shocks (budgets change, but not prices), but not “covariate” shocks (prices change). I describe all preferences that permit one to infer MUEs from expenditures and estimate nonhomothetic MUEs to test whether covariate shocks are shared efficiently in Uganda. This delivers sensible results; the standard approach suggests that droughts, floods, and pests are beneficial. (JEL D12, D81, O12, O13, Q12)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"51 1","pages":"3294-3329"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Marriage, Fertility, and Cultural Integration in Italy 意大利的婚姻、生育和文化融合
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20241404
Alberto Bisin,Giulia Tura
{"title":"Marriage, Fertility, and Cultural Integration in Italy","authors":"Alberto Bisin,Giulia Tura","doi":"10.1257/aer.20241404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20241404","url":null,"abstract":"We study cultural integration as an equilibrium outcome of marital matching along cultural and education lines and intrahousehold investment decisions regarding fertility and cultural socialization. Our model allows us to identify cultural-ethnic-group-specific investment parameters and spousal preferences for marital matching. Structural estimates reveal a strong demand to preserve cultural identity on the part of immigrants and limited acceptance of the immigrants' cultural diversity on the part of natives. Furthermore, these estimates reveal a substantial heterogeneity of the parental value of children's education across cultures. Nonetheless, our estimates simulate substantial—though heterogeneous—cultural integration rates across immigrant groups. (JEL D13, J12, J13, J15, Z13)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"2 1","pages":"3423-3463"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal Public Transportation Networks: Evidence from the World's Largest Bus Rapid Transit System in Jakarta 最佳公共交通网络：来自雅加达世界上最大的快速公交系统的证据
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230768
Gabriel Kreindler,Arya Gaduh,Tilman Graff,Rema Hanna,Benjamin A. Olken
{"title":"Optimal Public Transportation Networks: Evidence from the World's Largest Bus Rapid Transit System in Jakarta","authors":"Gabriel Kreindler,Arya Gaduh,Tilman Graff,Rema Hanna,Benjamin A. Olken","doi":"10.1257/aer.20230768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20230768","url":null,"abstract":"Designing public transport networks involves trade-offs between coverage, service frequency, and direct service. We use the expansion of the bus system in Jakarta, Indonesia, to study these trade-offs. We analyze how new direct connections, changes in bus travel time, and wait-time reductions affect bus ridership and aggregate flows and estimate a transit network demand model by matching the route launch events. Commuters in Jakarta are 2–3 times more sensitive to wait time than bus time and inattentive to long routes. We develop a flexible framework to characterize optimal networks. A less concentrated network would increase ridership and commuter welfare. (JEL L92, L98, O18, R41, R42, R48)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"3330-3379"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Effect of Omitted Variables on the Sign of Regression Coefficients 省略变量对回归系数符号的影响
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-07-07 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230242
Matthew A. Masten Alexandre Poirier
{"title":"The Effect of Omitted Variables on the Sign of Regression Coefficients","authors":"Matthew A. Masten Alexandre Poirier","doi":"10.1257/aer.20230242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20230242","url":null,"abstract":"We show that, depending on how the impact of omitted variables is measured, it can be substantially easier for omitted variables to flip coefficient signs than to drive them to zero. This behavior occurs with \"Oster's delta\" (Oster 2019a), a widely reported robustness measure. Consequently, any time this measure is large—suggesting omitted variables may be unimportant—a much smaller value reverses the sign of the parameter of interest. We propose a modified measure of robustness to address this concern. We illustrate our results in four empirical applications and two meta-analyses. We implement our methods in the companion Stata module \"regsensitivity.\"","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"218 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148409188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ideological Alignment and Evidence-Based Policy Adoption 意识形态一致性和基于证据的政策采纳
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-07-07 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240673
Jorge García-Hombrados, Marcel Jansen, Ángel Martínez, Berkay Özcan, Pedro Rey-Biel, Antonio Roldán- Monés
{"title":"Ideological Alignment and Evidence-Based Policy Adoption","authors":"Jorge García-Hombrados, Marcel Jansen, Ángel Martínez, Berkay Özcan, Pedro Rey-Biel, Antonio Roldán- Monés","doi":"10.1257/aer.20240673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20240673","url":null,"abstract":"The implementation of evidence-based policies hinges on the dissemination of evidence to policymakers, a process influenced by the attributes of the sender. We conducted a nationwide RCT with ideologically opposite think tanks, major newspapers, and a research institution with nonsalient ideology to communicate a nonideological, cost-effective policy to local policymakers. Results show a 65 percent increase in policy adoption when informing institutions align ideologically with policymakers. We compare the impact of think tanks versus media outlets on implementation, finding both equally effective when ideologically aligned. We explore three actions where ideology may influence adoption: information exposure, belief updating and implementation.","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148409189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nobel Lecture: The Past and Future of Innovation: Can Progress Be Sustained? 诺贝尔演讲：创新的过去与未来：进步能否持续？
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-07-07 DOI: 10.1257/aer.116.7.2299
Joel Mokyr
{"title":"Nobel Lecture: The Past and Future of Innovation: Can Progress Be Sustained?","authors":"Joel Mokyr","doi":"10.1257/aer.116.7.2299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.116.7.2299","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148409191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Theory of Price Caps on Nonrenewable Resources 不可再生资源价格上限理论
IF 10.7 1区 经济学
American Economic Review Pub Date : 2026-07-07 DOI: 10.1257/aer.20250064
Simon Johnson, Lukasz Rachel, Catherine Wolfram
{"title":"A Theory of Price Caps on Nonrenewable Resources","authors":"Simon Johnson, Lukasz Rachel, Catherine Wolfram","doi":"10.1257/aer.20250064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20250064","url":null,"abstract":"What is the optimal response of a resource exporter when a price cap is imposed on its main export? This paper develops a dynamic framework incorporating stochastic prices, financial frictions, and market power to study this novel tool of statecraft. With the right design, a price cap can incentivize increased extraction, stabilizing prices in the global market. But the stabilizing effects diminish when there is leakage outside the cap. Consequently, weak enforcement of the policy worsens the trade-off faced by the sanctioning policymaker. We provide a systematic approach to setting and enforcing an optimal cap level in these circumstances.","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148409185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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