Review of Economics and Statistics最新文献

{"title":"Analysis of The State of The Tourism Industry in Russia аnd The Direction of Its Development","authors":"P. Nikolenko, A. Terekhov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-57-70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-57-70","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study. The purpose of the work is to assess the state of the tourism industry using statistical methods, analysis of scientific literature and identification of the main trends and promising directions of its development. The article is devoted to the possibilities of statistical analysis in the conditions of limited statistical information on Russia in relation to the tourism industry.Materials and methods. The following scientific methods are used in the article: analysis of scientific literature, analysis of dynamics and structure, coefficient analysis, correlation and regression analysis, graphical analysis, forecasting of indexes of the tourism industry. The analysis of Russian and foreign literature allowed us to formulate conclusions about modern methods of analysis used to assess the problems of the tourism industry. The analysis of the indexes in dynamics made it possible to identify and describe the main trends in the development of tourist flows, the volume and cost of selling tourist packages. The calculated structure of collective accommodation facilities showed their percentage ratio during the study period and the change in their shares. The use of correlation analysis made it possible to establish the closeness and direction of statistical relationships between individual factors affecting the state of the industry and the volume of tourist trips. A multiple regression model based on indexes characterizing the dynamics of prices for tours sold, the state of the transport sector and the food sector methodology is created. Based on the Box–Jenkins methodology, predictive models were created and medium-term forecasts were calculated for variables characterizing the number of tourist firms and the number of sanatorium-resort organizations and recreation organizations. The initial data for the study were Rosstat data in annual and spatial dimensions for the period 2011–2020.Results. The article highlights the main directions of research in the field of tourism industry, presented in the works of domestic and foreign authors. The foreign approach to its assessment is carried out through evidence-based methods. The research of domestic authors is more focused on the implementation of program-targeted methods and the identification of problems of assessment and prospects for the development of the industry in the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourist trips showed a tendency to decrease their total number, which is due to the low level of tourist attractiveness, shocks and restrictive measures caused by the SARSCoV-2 pandemic, the tense foreign policy situation. It is established that the most active external tourist flows of the Russian Federation are observed with neighboring countries. Correlation analysis showed the presence of a statistical relationship between the number of trips made with the state of the transport infrastructure and the cost of the tour packages sold. Th","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85290951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marketing Research of Supply and Demand in the Regional Energy Market","authors":"M. A. Alinazarova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-15-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-15-24","url":null,"abstract":"The study is devoted to the energy market of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tajikistan. The features of marketing in the energy sector are highlighted and the authors’ interpretations of the definition of “marketing” in the energy sector are given. The functions of marketing activities in the development of the energy sector of the region are considered. Examples of the correlation between supply and demand for energy products, including electricity, are given for further forecasting the consumption of these products. The ratio analysis of supply and demand of electricity in a certain area was carried out. To identify factors affecting the demand of electricity consumers, an analysis was carried out using statistical and mathematical calculation methods. As a result, a factor that has a greater influence on the demand of electricity consumers has been identified. The ways of solving marketing research for the further successful functioning of the energy company in the interests of society and the social well-being of the population are proposed.Purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to study the state of the regional energy market on the basis of marketing research that characterizes the activities of an energy company; identification of indicators such as consumer dissatisfaction with energy products. The paper is based on a dynamic analysis of analytical and statistical information about ongoing processes in the energy sector. The task is to conduct marketing research of supply and demand in the regional energy market.Materials and methods. The information base of the study is analytical information and statistical data on indexes of supply and demand for energy products, including electricity. The methodological basis of the study is represented by statistical methods of information analysis: comparative analysis and analysis of time series.Results. Based on the results of an economic and statistical analysis of consumer demand indicators for the use of energy products, including electricity, factors influencing demand have been identified. Of the three selected factors, it is especially worth noting the demand of consumers using electricity, which are population density indexes, weather conditions and the number of rainfall days in a particular region, it is theoretically established that population density is a more influential index.Conclusion. Energy is the main branch of the national economy of the country, which contributes to the development of the economy and the normal life of the population. Until now, the problem of providing the population and the national economy of the regions of the republic with energy goods and electricity makes us think about new ways to solve the problem. Since hydroelectric power generation in the country is the share of hydroelectric power plants, given the economic and social condition of the country in the power supply system, it will be appropriate to create a marketing system platform.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88952701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Assessment of The Implementation of Socio-Economic Development Strategies of The Republic of Uzbekistan in the Context of Digital Transformation","authors":"B. Begalov, I. Zhukovskaya","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-64-76","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-64-76","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The main purpose of the article is to conduct a statistical assessment of the implementation of strategies for the socio-economic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan using an innovative methodology based on the use of digital technological solutions.Materials and methods. In the course of writing this article, the authors used the methods of system analysis, synthesis, statistical sampling and grouping, induction, deduction, methods of working with computer networks and digital platforms, special methods and tools necessary to optimize the work of the portal of the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics, as well as when working on this article, methods of working with digital technologies, specialized software products, web services were reflected.Results. The authors present the main technological approaches to conducting a statistical assessment of the activities of industries and spheres of the national economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan based on the use of digital mechanisms. New scientific approaches to the integration of statistical activities with other objects of the national economy in the context of digital transformation are proposed, the main directions for organizing the interaction of the statistical industry with economic objects within the framework of the National Program “Digital Uzbekistan – 2030” are identified. It is shown that in the modern period in the Republic of Uzbekistan a whole range of government decisions has been adopted on the comprehensive development of the country’s economic system based on the use of digital technologies. In addition, the article proves that the development of digital infrastructure is one of the determining conditions for increasing the competitiveness of the state on the world stage. At the same time, digital transformation contributes to the development of new methodological solutions for assessing the functioning of industries and spheres of the national economy. Scientific studies conducted by the authors state that due to the use of advanced information and digital technologies, innovative mechanisms for collecting and processing information flows, the statistical assessment of the implementation of a whole range of strategies for the development of the socio-economic complex is more open and transparent, which in turn allows you to make competent manage-ment decisions for the effective development of industries and areas of the national economy.Conclusion. This paper shows that the development and widespread use of digital technologies in all sectors of the economy and spheres of society today is a global trend in world development. The authors also state that the use of digital technological solutions is crucial for improving the living standards of citizens and the competitiveness of the national economy, expanding the possibilities of its integration into the global economic system, and increasing the efficiency of all levels of gov","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"140 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78519503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Assessment of The Development of Digital Skills of The Employed Population in The Russian Federation","authors":"P. E. Prokhorov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-25-38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-25-38","url":null,"abstract":"Quantitative measurement of the competencies of the employed population in the use of modern technologies makes it possible to characterize the resources for the development of the digital economy and the factors for the spread of digital innovations in the economic activities of enterprises in terms of the quality of human capital. Many empirical studies and analytical reports characterize digital skills using measures of the number of specialists in the field of information and communication technologies. However, this approach is limited, since the spread of digital business models and the introduction of technologies in all areas of the economy have increased the skill complexity of work in a wide range of occupations. Now, the personnel of the digital economy can be considered not only ICT specialists, but also those employees who intensively use computer and computing equipment and software systems.Purpose of the study. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for quantifying the skills of using digital technologies among the employed population based on official statistical methodology, testing it on real data, as well as analyzing trends in the development of digital skills in recent years, including for various socio-economic and demographic categories of the employed population.Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, international and domestic experience in building summary indicators of competencies necessary for the operation of computer equipment and work with standard and specialized programs and applications was studied. A comparative analysis of such approaches has been carried out. The index method was used to calculate the digital skills indicator. Grouping methods, tabular and graphical methods, dynamics analysis methods, distribution variation analysis methods were used to form summary results and analyze them.The information source of the study was microdata from sample surveys of the Federal State Statistics Service. The indicators are presented in the annual frequency for 2016-2020 for the Russian Federation.Results. The advantages and disadvantages of digital skills assessment approaches were identified. A methodology has been developed for calculating the weighted average level of digital skills of the employed population. The calculation was carried out using this method based on the microdata of sample surveys for 2020. The changes that have taken place in the distribution of employees by levels of digital skills have been studied. The dynamics of the level of digital skills is analyzed, including by age groups, professional groups and types of economic activity.Conclusion. The results of the analysis of the development of digital skills can be used in studies on modeling the relationship between the level of user competencies of personnel in the digital environment and the development of the digital economy in order to study the features and patterns of digital transformation of economic activity in t","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73812715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Information Support of Statistic Research of Budget Investments’ Impact on Socio-Ecological and Economic Development of the Russian Federation regions","authors":"N. Kovalenko","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-39-49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-39-49","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study is to estimate the information support on budget investments and analyze the sources of their formation from the standpoint of completeness and reliability of information for their use as an information base for a statistical study of the impact of budget investments on the social, environmental and economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation. The main directions for assessing the information security of the research are: studying the requirements and basic standards for information; specifics and structures of formed information flows; analysis of information resources, including their parameters and characteristics describing their properties and purpose; determination of units of main information elements, their grouping by formation sources, by main users, by formation system.Materials and methods. The research used the theoretical methods: analysis, synthesis, grouping of sources of information on budget investments.Results. The conducted research allowed making a conclusion on a high degree of information security of a rather extensive, multidimensional set of information sources and resources on budget investments. This paper is the basis for the formation of a categorical instrument of statistical research on budget investments. The information array of data on budget investments is aimed at analytical procedures that can be carried out by types, sorts, forms of implementation, budget levels and budget investments realization stages including regional sectioning.Conclusion. The conducted research has a high degree of practical value due to its aim at direction on elaboration of tools for state management of budget investments. Rapid development of forms and resource chances of the formed information flows on budget investments determined by realization of requirements to the publication of data by state bodies and local self-government bodies which have become more often placed on the Internet as data arrays in the format ensuring their automatic processing to be reused in terms of free use.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76941299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimization of The Budget of The Industrial Complex Transformation Strategy Based on Neural Network Modeling","authors":"A. Boev, Andrey Puzakov, Y. Anisimov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-50-63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-50-63","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to develop and test methodological tools for optimizing the structure and directions of budget spending strategies for transformations of industrial complexes. The relevance of the study is due to the need to restructure business processes and models of strategic management in industry, as well as the overall increase in the efficiency of domestic enterprises in the conditions of the formation of the digital economy. Currently, Russian industry is developing mainly along an extensive path that does not provide a deep innovative transformation of business and the necessary increase in labor productivity.Materials and methods. The data source for the study is Rosstat materials on the development of industry in the Russian Federation, indicators of economic activity of industrial companies contained in SPARK-Interfax databases, as well as the results of monitoring activities of KPMG and the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. The methods of neural network modeling and budgeting, comparative quantitative and structural analysis, index approach and other tools are used in the work.The results of the study. The article substantiates the formation of budgets for transformation strategies of industrial companies based on groups of strategically significant expenses. The analysis has been carried out and the problems of the current budget structure of the transformation strategies of the industrial complexes of Voronezh, Lipetsk, Kursk and a number of other regions have been identified. A methodological technique has been developed that allows choosing the optimal option for allocating the strategy budget funds between the key areas of transformation of the industrial complex, characterized by the use of neural network modeling technologies and providing the greatest increase in revenue and labor productivity while maintaining the financial and economic stability of the enterprise. A neural network of direct signal propagation has been constructed, which is used to predict the values of financial and economic indicators of an industrial complex depending on the allocation of funds in the budget of its strategy. Based on the conducted modeling, the optimization of the budgets of the strategies of enterprises was carried out and the results of their transformation (in terms of increasing revenue and labor productivity) were predicted.Conclusion. The results of the study show that a significant increase in labor productivity in industry can be achieved by increasing the amount of financing and implementing measures aimed at digitalizing business processes, conducting R&D and introducing organizational innovations at enterprises. The analysis shows the high potential effectiveness of transformation strategies of all studied industrial complexes after optimizing their budgets. The highest indicators can be achieved at JSC “Industrial Complex “Energia”, JSC “Schetmash”, JSC “Kursk Electrical Equipment Plant” and other companies. The re","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"4 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82669380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Congressional Elections and Union Officer Prosecutions","authors":"M. Downey","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01198","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Politicizing the investigation of politically active groups is harmful for both the justice system and democratic accountability. I test whether members of the U.S. Congress affect the investigation and prosecution of politically active labor unions. Union officers are 1.5 percentage points more likely to be prosecuted when their supported candidate barely loses instead of barely wins (compared to the 3% base rate). Anecdotal evidence and a novel decomposition suggest a role for both union-supported winners protecting allies and union-opposed winners pushing for aggressive prosecution of their opponents. I show that prosecutions undermine unions' strength, and I calculate implications for the incumbency advantage.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"105 1","pages":"1161-1174"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48751741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Analysis of the Patterns of Global Investment Development in China","authors":"A. V. Loseva","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-4-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-3-4-14","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to assess the possible impact of patterns and trends in the development of foreign investment activity of China on the prospects of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation in this area, including in terms of support for the Russian energy sector. The relevance of the study is due to the growing influence of the People’s Republic of China in solving global economic and political issues, as well as the importance of its role as a strategic partner of the Russian Federation, which makes it necessary to assess future prospects.The research methods are methods of analyzing time series, including identifying trends, as well as assessing the structure and structural shifts to obtain an overall picture of the structural transformations of foreign direct investment of China in regional and sectoral sections.The results of the study. Chinese foreign direct investment in the last two decades has been characterized by an intensive growth in volumes, resistant to global economic crises; analysis of their geographical structure demonstrates the constancy of such a feature as maximizing the opportunities of global offshore zones and countries granting privileges to foreign investors; the sectoral structure of Chinese foreign direct investment has certain patterns of change that are consistent with the goals and objectives of economic development of China set by five-year plans, which makes it possible to predict and find solutions in the field of Russian-Chinese cooperation; a trend has been identified to increase the attention of Chinese investors to the issue of capital formation in the Russian economy. In addition, an assessment of the analytical capabilities provided to users by the official statistics of China in terms of information about investment processes is given.Conclusion. Statistical analysis of the indicators of foreign investment activity of China over a long period of time allows us to evaluate and characterize its strategic behavior as one of the world’s largest investors, focused primarily on solving the problems of developing its own economy and its global expansion in the long term. The significance of such studies will now increase, given the importance of the development of foreign economic relations with China for the Russian Federation based on the increased potential of interaction between the two countries in recent years.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82978867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of the Proportion of Men in the Number of Teaching Staff in Schools","authors":"Yulia Pinkovetskaya","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-2-43-51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-2-43-51","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study. One of the urgent problems of the development of the regions of Russia is to increase the efficiency of regional systems of general secondary education. At the same time, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the gender gap in the personnel of modern schools. In order to understand the gender gap that has developed in the regions, it is advisable to conduct a comparative analysis of differences between regions based on specific indicators. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the existing differentiation of the proportion of male teaching staff by age. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the indicators characterizing the share of male teachers of different age groups in the total number of teaching staff of schools in the regions of Russia. These indicators were the shares of the number of men of five age groups in the total number of school-teachers in these age categories in 2020.Materials and methods. The study used the methodological approach proposed by the author, based on the consideration of specific indicators describing the proportion of male teachers of different ages working in general education schools in the total number of teaching staff of such schools. The study included five stages. The study used official statistical information for all regions of Russia. This information reflects the results of a federal statistical survey conducted by the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation. The density functions of the normal distribution were used as models. The study used methods of statistical analysis and, in particular, ANOVA. The study carried out mathematical modeling of the distribution of the considered indicators by regions of Russia.Results. The study proved that there is currently a significant feminization of secondary education in our country. The conducted modeling of empirical data demonstrated that the values of indicators characterizing the share of male teachers in the total number of teaching staff of schools depend on the age of teachers. The maximum value of the indicator was noted in the age group up to thirty years. With increasing age, the values of indicators decrease and reach a minimum in the age group from forty to forty-nine years. At an older age, the proportion of male teachers increases. The article discusses the regional features of the formation of the teaching staff of schools. Regions with minimum and maximum values of each of the five indicators were identified.Conclusion. The proposed methodological approach and the results obtained have a scientific novelty, since the assessment of the territorial features of the gender structure of school-teachers in the regions of Russia has not been carried out before. The methodological approach presented in the article to the assessment of the gender structure of the teaching staff of secondary schools based on the proposed methodology can be used in further research.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80871618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combined Cognitive Model for Forecasting University Activities","authors":"A. Mikryukov, M. Mazurov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-2-52-60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-2-52-60","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to develop a model for predicting university performance indicators based on a cognitive approach, which is based on the construction of a cognitive map that reflects the influence of a set of latent factors on the basic indicators and provides a solution to the problem of scenario forecasting. The degree of achievement of the required values of the basic indicators that determine the ranking of the university depends on the magnitude of the increment of the identified latent factors. The developed model makes it possible to choose the most preferable variant of scenario forecasting under the existing restrictions on the resources allocated for the increment of latent factors.Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, cognitive modeling methods based on gray fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) were used in combination with methods of interval mathematics and causal algebra. The application of the considered approach made it possible to reduce the uncertainty of expert estimates of the strength of the relationship between the concepts of the cognitive map due to the use of special constructions in the form of interval estimates rather than point estimates when describing the relationships between the concepts, which ensured an increase in the reliability of the modeling results. The developed model is created based on an ensemble of gray FCMs, which, in turn, made it possible to increase the accuracy and reliability of the predictive model. The proposed approach to solving the problem of predicting the activities of the university made it possible to develop an adequate cognitive model.Results. The developed cognitive model of the university’s activities made it possible to analyze the dynamics of changes in factors and their influence on basic indicators, as well as the dynamics of the development of the system of indicators. The calculation made it possible to choose the most cost-effective scenario for incrementing the values of latent factors to obtain the required value of the university ranking in the framework of the QS international institutional ranking of universities. A comparative analysis of the results of scenario forecasting based on conventional FCM, gray FCM, and an ensemble of gray FCM was carried out, which showed the advantage of the proposed approach.Conclusion. During the study, a fuzzy cognitive model was developed for scenario forecasting of measures to achieve the required values of university performance targets in the QS international institutional ranking based on an ensemble of gray FCMs. The developed model provides, under the given constraints, obtaining the most acceptable scenario for planning the increment of basic indicators to target values by identifying the latent factors influencing them and calculating the required values of impulse effects on latent factors.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81601598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}