俄罗斯旅游业现状分析及发展方向

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
P. Nikolenko, A. Terekhov
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The analysis of the indexes in dynamics made it possible to identify and describe the main trends in the development of tourist flows, the volume and cost of selling tourist packages. The calculated structure of collective accommodation facilities showed their percentage ratio during the study period and the change in their shares. The use of correlation analysis made it possible to establish the closeness and direction of statistical relationships between individual factors affecting the state of the industry and the volume of tourist trips. A multiple regression model based on indexes characterizing the dynamics of prices for tours sold, the state of the transport sector and the food sector methodology is created. Based on the Box–Jenkins methodology, predictive models were created and medium-term forecasts were calculated for variables characterizing the number of tourist firms and the number of sanatorium-resort organizations and recreation organizations. The initial data for the study were Rosstat data in annual and spatial dimensions for the period 2011–2020.Results. The article highlights the main directions of research in the field of tourism industry, presented in the works of domestic and foreign authors. The foreign approach to its assessment is carried out through evidence-based methods. The research of domestic authors is more focused on the implementation of program-targeted methods and the identification of problems of assessment and prospects for the development of the industry in the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourist trips showed a tendency to decrease their total number, which is due to the low level of tourist attractiveness, shocks and restrictive measures caused by the SARSCoV-2 pandemic, the tense foreign policy situation. It is established that the most active external tourist flows of the Russian Federation are observed with neighboring countries. Correlation analysis showed the presence of a statistical relationship between the number of trips made with the state of the transport infrastructure and the cost of the tour packages sold. The trend of growth in the implementation of tour packages in Russian destinations and a reduction in their number in foreign destinations, which is due to an increase in the disparity between the average cost of tour packages depending on the destination of the holiday, is established. The carried out regression analysis procedure showed the relationship between the number of tourist packages sold to citizens of the Russian Federation with the variables “average cost of sold tourist packages” and “fleet of aircraft”, which indicates the need to develop transport infrastructure and optimize the cost of recreation. Forecast calculations on the number of travel agencies and sanatorium-resort organizations have shown their decline in the medium term, which indicates the need to take appropriate measures to activate tourism entrepreneurship.Conclusion. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, the analysis of scientific literature and the content of tourism development programs in the Russian Federation, the authors identified common problems and directions of development of the industry. The main problems of the industry are the following: weak tourist attractiveness, insufficient development of tourist and transport infrastructure, lack of accommodation facilities aimed at mass tourists, low quality of domestic accommodation services, and high cost of foreign tours. 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Correlation analysis showed the presence of a statistical relationship between the number of trips made with the state of the transport infrastructure and the cost of the tour packages sold. The trend of growth in the implementation of tour packages in Russian destinations and a reduction in their number in foreign destinations, which is due to an increase in the disparity between the average cost of tour packages depending on the destination of the holiday, is established. The carried out regression analysis procedure showed the relationship between the number of tourist packages sold to citizens of the Russian Federation with the variables “average cost of sold tourist packages” and “fleet of aircraft”, which indicates the need to develop transport infrastructure and optimize the cost of recreation. 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引用次数: 1

摘要

研究的目的。这项工作的目的是利用统计方法、科学文献分析和确定其发展的主要趋势和有希望的方向来评估旅游业的状况。本文致力于在俄罗斯旅游业统计资料有限的情况下进行统计分析的可能性。材料和方法。本文运用了科学文献分析、动态与结构分析、系数分析、相关与回归分析、图形分析、旅游产业指标预测等科学方法。通过对俄罗斯和外国文献的分析,我们得出了用于评估旅游业问题的现代分析方法的结论。通过对动态指标的分析,可以识别和描述旅游客流发展的主要趋势、旅游套餐销售的数量和成本。集体住宿设施的计算结构显示了研究期间集体住宿设施的百分比比例及其份额的变化情况。使用相关分析可以确定影响工业状况和旅游旅行数量的个别因素之间的统计关系的密切程度和方向。基于表征旅游价格动态的指数、交通部门的状况和食品部门的方法,创建了一个多元回归模型。基于Box-Jenkins方法,建立了预测模型,并对表征旅游公司数量、疗养度假组织和娱乐组织数量的变量进行了中期预测。本研究的初始数据为2011 - 2020年期间的年度和空间维度的Rosstat数据。文章重点介绍了国内外作者在旅游产业领域的主要研究方向。国外的评估方法是通过循证方法进行的。国内作者的研究更多地集中在方案针对性方法的实施和评估问题的识别以及俄罗斯联邦行业发展前景。入境和出境旅游动态分析显示,由于旅游吸引力水平较低,sars -2大流行造成的冲击和限制措施,外交政策形势紧张,入境和出境旅游总量呈下降趋势。可以确定的是,俄罗斯联邦对外旅游流量最活跃的是邻国。相关分析表明,旅行次数与交通基础设施状况和旅游套餐销售成本之间存在统计关系。确定了在俄罗斯目的地实施旅游套餐的增长趋势和在国外目的地实施旅游套餐的数量减少的趋势,这是由于根据度假目的地的旅游套餐平均费用之间的差距增加。所进行的回归分析程序显示了向俄罗斯联邦公民出售的旅游套餐数量与“销售旅游套餐的平均成本”和“飞机机队”变量之间的关系,这表明需要发展交通基础设施并优化娱乐成本。对旅行社和疗养疗养机构数量的预测计算表明,在中期,旅行社和疗养疗养机构的数量有所下降,这表明需要采取适当的措施来激活旅游创业。根据统计分析的结果,对科学文献的分析以及俄罗斯联邦旅游发展计划的内容,作者确定了该行业的共同问题和发展方向。旅游业的主要问题是:旅游吸引力弱,旅游和交通基础设施发展不足,缺乏针对大众游客的住宿设施,国内住宿服务质量不高,出国旅游成本高。国内旅游业务发展的优先方向涉及:引进现代数字技术,积极宣传国内旅游,优化旅游行业企业成本,在经济困难条件下激活国家支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of The State of The Tourism Industry in Russia аnd The Direction of Its Development
The purpose of the study. The purpose of the work is to assess the state of the tourism industry using statistical methods, analysis of scientific literature and identification of the main trends and promising directions of its development. The article is devoted to the possibilities of statistical analysis in the conditions of limited statistical information on Russia in relation to the tourism industry.Materials and methods. The following scientific methods are used in the article: analysis of scientific literature, analysis of dynamics and structure, coefficient analysis, correlation and regression analysis, graphical analysis, forecasting of indexes of the tourism industry. The analysis of Russian and foreign literature allowed us to formulate conclusions about modern methods of analysis used to assess the problems of the tourism industry. The analysis of the indexes in dynamics made it possible to identify and describe the main trends in the development of tourist flows, the volume and cost of selling tourist packages. The calculated structure of collective accommodation facilities showed their percentage ratio during the study period and the change in their shares. The use of correlation analysis made it possible to establish the closeness and direction of statistical relationships between individual factors affecting the state of the industry and the volume of tourist trips. A multiple regression model based on indexes characterizing the dynamics of prices for tours sold, the state of the transport sector and the food sector methodology is created. Based on the Box–Jenkins methodology, predictive models were created and medium-term forecasts were calculated for variables characterizing the number of tourist firms and the number of sanatorium-resort organizations and recreation organizations. The initial data for the study were Rosstat data in annual and spatial dimensions for the period 2011–2020.Results. The article highlights the main directions of research in the field of tourism industry, presented in the works of domestic and foreign authors. The foreign approach to its assessment is carried out through evidence-based methods. The research of domestic authors is more focused on the implementation of program-targeted methods and the identification of problems of assessment and prospects for the development of the industry in the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourist trips showed a tendency to decrease their total number, which is due to the low level of tourist attractiveness, shocks and restrictive measures caused by the SARSCoV-2 pandemic, the tense foreign policy situation. It is established that the most active external tourist flows of the Russian Federation are observed with neighboring countries. Correlation analysis showed the presence of a statistical relationship between the number of trips made with the state of the transport infrastructure and the cost of the tour packages sold. The trend of growth in the implementation of tour packages in Russian destinations and a reduction in their number in foreign destinations, which is due to an increase in the disparity between the average cost of tour packages depending on the destination of the holiday, is established. The carried out regression analysis procedure showed the relationship between the number of tourist packages sold to citizens of the Russian Federation with the variables “average cost of sold tourist packages” and “fleet of aircraft”, which indicates the need to develop transport infrastructure and optimize the cost of recreation. Forecast calculations on the number of travel agencies and sanatorium-resort organizations have shown their decline in the medium term, which indicates the need to take appropriate measures to activate tourism entrepreneurship.Conclusion. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, the analysis of scientific literature and the content of tourism development programs in the Russian Federation, the authors identified common problems and directions of development of the industry. The main problems of the industry are the following: weak tourist attractiveness, insufficient development of tourist and transport infrastructure, lack of accommodation facilities aimed at mass tourists, low quality of domestic accommodation services, and high cost of foreign tours. The priority directions of the development of the domestic tourism business are related to: the introduction of modern digital technologies, active advertising of domestic tourism, optimization of the costs of tourism industry enterprises, activation of state support in difficult economic conditions.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
175
期刊介绍: The Review of Economics and Statistics is a 100-year-old general journal of applied (especially quantitative) economics. Edited at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Review has published some of the most important articles in empirical economics.
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