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A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States 美国各州职业执照的福利分析
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-22 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad015
Morris M Kleiner, Evan J Soltas
{"title":"A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States","authors":"Morris M Kleiner, Evan J Soltas","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We assess the welfare consequences of occupational licensing for workers and consumers. We estimate a model of labour market equilibrium in which licensing restricts labour supply but also affects labour demand via worker quality and selection. On the margin of occupations licensed differently between U.S. states, we find that licensing raises wages and hours but reduces employment. We estimate an average welfare loss of 12% of occupational surplus. Workers and consumers respectively bear 70% and 30% of the incidence. Higher willingness to pay offsets 80% of higher prices for consumers, and higher wages compensate workers for 60% of the cost of mandated investment in occupation-specific human capital. Welfare effects appear more favourable in occupations in which licensing is more common.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136196796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
International Spillovers and Bailouts 国际溢出效应和救助
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad025
Marina Azzimonti, Vincenzo Quadrini
{"title":"International Spillovers and Bailouts","authors":"Marina Azzimonti, Vincenzo Quadrini","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts. Because of portfolio diversification, the default of one country causes a macroeconomic contraction in other countries, which motivates a bailout. But why do creditor countries choose to bailout debtor countries instead of their own private sector? We show that this is because an external bailout could be cheaper than a domestic bailout. We also show that although anticipated bailouts lead to higher borrowing, they can be Pareto improving not only ex post (after a country has defaulted) but also ex ante (before the country chooses its debt).","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"159 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136389498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Diagnostic Business Cycles 诊断性商业周期
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad024
Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, Hikaru Saijo
{"title":"Diagnostic Business Cycles","authors":"Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, Hikaru Saijo","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers’ forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm [Bordalo et al. (2018), Journal of Finance, 73, 199–227] to capture this feature of belief formation, develop a method to incorporate DE in business cycle models, and study the implications for aggregate dynamics. First, we address (1) the theoretical challenges associated with modelling the feedback between optimal actions and agents’ DE beliefs and (2) the time-inconsistencies that arise under distant memory (i.e. when news is perceived with respect to a more distant past than just the immediate one). Second, we show that under distant memory the interaction between actions and DE beliefs naturally generates repeated boom–bust cycles in response to a single initial shock. We also propose a portable solution method to study DE in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and use it to estimate a quantitative DE New Keynesian model. Both endogenous states and distant memory play a critical role in successfully replicating the boom–bust cycle observed in response to a monetary policy shock.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"295 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135030223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk Classification in Insurance Markets with Risk and Preference Heterogeneity 风险偏好异质性下的保险市场风险分类
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad017
Vitor Farinha Luz, P. Gottardi, Humberto Moreira
{"title":"Risk Classification in Insurance Markets with Risk and Preference Heterogeneity","authors":"Vitor Farinha Luz, P. Gottardi, Humberto Moreira","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper studies a competitive model of insurance markets in which consumers are privately informed about their risk and risk preferences. We provide a characterization of the equilibria, which depend non-trivially on consumers' type distribution, a desirable feature for policy analysis. The use of consumer char-acteristics for risk classification is modeled as the disclosure of a public informative signal. A novel property of signals, monotonicity, is shown to be necessary and sufficient for their release to be welfare improving for almost all consumer types. We also study the effect of changes to the risk distribution in the population as the result of demographic changes or policy interventions. We show that an increase in the risk distribu-tion, according to the monotone likelihood ratio ordering of distribution, leads to lower utility for almost all consumer types. In contrast, the effect is ambiguous when considering the first order stochastic dominance ordering.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44489943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents 增长下降和租金上升的理论
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad016
Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J Klenow, Huiyu Li
{"title":"A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents","authors":"Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J Klenow, Huiyu Li","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Growth has fallen in the U.S. amid a rise in firm concentration. Market share has shifted to low labour share firms, while within-firm labour shares have actually risen. We propose a theory linking these trends in which the driving force is falling overhead costs of spanning multiple products or a rising efficiency advantage of large firms. In response, the most efficient firms (with higher markups) spread into new product lines, thereby increasing concentration and generating a temporary burst of growth. Eventually, due to greater competition from efficient firms, within-firm markups and incentives to innovate fall. Thus our simple model can generate qualitative patterns in line with the observed trends.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135081067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Left-Digit Bias at Lyft Lyft的左数字偏差
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-18 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad014
J. List, Ian Muir, Devin G. Pope, Greg Sun
{"title":"Left-Digit Bias at Lyft","authors":"J. List, Ian Muir, Devin G. Pope, Greg Sun","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Left-digit bias (or 99-cent pricing) has been discussed extensively in economics, psychology, and marketing. Despite this, we show that the rideshare company, Lyft, was not using a 99-cent pricing strategy prior to our study. Based on observational data from over 600 million Lyft sessions followed by a field experiment conducted with 21 million Lyft passengers, we provide evidence of large discontinuities in demand at dollar values. Approximately half of the downward slope of the demand curve occurs discontinuously as the price of a ride drops below a dollar value (e.g. $14.00 to $13.99). If our short run estimates persist in the longer run, we calculate that Lyft could increase its profits by roughly $160M per year by employing a left-digit bias pricing strategy. Our results showcase the robustness of an important behavioral bias for a large, modern company and its persistence in a highly-competitive market.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47087725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Cost of Wage Rigidity 工资刚性的成本
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad020
Ester Faia, Vincenzo Pezone
{"title":"The Cost of Wage Rigidity","authors":"Ester Faia, Vincenzo Pezone","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad020","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Private efficiency of wage rigidity has taken center stage in economics. Measuring its effects has proven elusive for lack of actual wage data. Using a unique confidential labor contract level dataset matched with firm-level high frequency asset prices, we find robust evidence that firms’ stock prices and employment fluctuate more in response to monetary policy announcements the higher the degree of wage rigidity. Hand-collected information on the periods across renegotiations of collective bargaining agreements allow us to construct an accurate and predetermined measure of wage rigidity. We find that the amplification induced by wage rigidity is stronger for firms with high labor intensity, low profitability, and a large share of workers with more rigid contracts.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49340036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States 人力资本、女性就业和电力:来自20世纪初美国的证据
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad021
D. Vidart
{"title":"Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States","authors":"D. Vidart","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad021","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper revisits the link between electrification and the rise in female labor force participation (LFP), and presents theoretical and empirical evidence showing that electrification triggered a rise in female LFP by increasing market opportunities for skilled women. I formalize my theory in an overlapping generations model and find that my mechanism explains one quarter of the rise in female LFP during the rollout of electricity in the United States (1880–1940), and matches the slow decline in female home-production hours during this period. I then present micro-evidence supporting my theory using newly digitized data on the early electrification of the United States.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41594550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends 对平行趋势的更可信的方法
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad018
Ashesh Rambachan, Jonathan Roth
{"title":"A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends","authors":"Ashesh Rambachan, Jonathan Roth","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (“pre-trends”). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two approaches that guarantee uniformly valid inference under the imposed restrictions, and we derive novel results showing that they have desirable power properties in our context. We illustrate how economic knowledge can inform the restrictions on the possible violations of parallel trends in two economic applications. We also highlight how our approach can be used to conduct sensitivity analyses showing what causal conclusions can be drawn under various restrictions on the possible violations of the parallel trends assumption.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135538193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 42
Social Positions and Fairness Views on Inequality 不平等的社会地位与公平观
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad019
Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg, C. Kreiner, Stefanie Stantcheva
{"title":"Social Positions and Fairness Views on Inequality","authors":"Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg, C. Kreiner, Stefanie Stantcheva","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad019","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We link survey data on Danish people’s perceived income positions and fairness views on inequality within various reference groups to administrative records on their reference groups, income histories, and life events. People are, on average, well-informed about the income levels of their reference groups. Yet, lower-ranked respondents in all groups tend to overestimate their own position among others because they believe others’ incomes are lower than they actually are, whereas the opposite holds true for higher-ranked respondents. Misperceptions of positions in reference groups relate to proximity to other individuals, transparency norms, and visible signals of income. People view inequalities within their co-workers and education groups as significantly more unfair than overall inequality, yet underestimate inequality the most exactly within these groups. Views on the fairness of inequalities are strongly correlated with an individual’s current position, move with shocks like unemployment or promotions, and change when experimentally informing people about their actual positions. However, the higher perceived unfairness of income differences within co-workers and education groups stays unchanged. The theoretical framework shows that this can have important implications for redistribution policy.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47130302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
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