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The Darwinian Returns to Scale 达尔文的规模回报
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-06-09 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad061
D. R. Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi
{"title":"The Darwinian Returns to Scale","authors":"D. R. Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad061","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does an increase in market size, say due to globalization, affect welfare? We study this question using a model with monopolistic competition, heterogeneous markups, and fixed costs. We characterize changes in welfare and decompose changes in allocative efficiency into three different effects: (1) reallocations across firms with heterogeneous price elasticities due to intensifying competition, (2) reallocations due to the exit of marginally profitable firms, and (3) reallocations due to changes in firms’ markups. Whereas the second and third effects have ambiguous implications for welfare, the first effect, which we call the Darwinian effect, always increases welfare regardless of the shape of demand curves. We nonparametrically calibrate demand curves with data from Belgian manufacturing firms and quantify our results. We find that mild increasing returns at the microlevel can catalyze large increasing returns at the macrolevel. Between 70 and 90% of increasing returns to scale come from improvements in how a larger market allocates resources. The lion’s share of these gains are due to the Darwinian effect, which increases the aggregate markup and concentrates sales and employment in high-markup firms. This has implications for policy: an entry subsidy, which harnesses Darwinian reallocations, can improve welfare even when there is more entry than in the first best.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135050879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program 社会保障网络是一项长期投资吗?来自食品券计划的大规模证据
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad063
Martha J Bailey, Hilary Hoynes, Maya Rossin-Slater, Reed Walker
{"title":"Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program","authors":"Martha J Bailey, Hilary Hoynes, Maya Rossin-Slater, Reed Walker","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad063","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children's long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001–13 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration's NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level rollout of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975. We find that children with access to greater economic resources before age five have better outcomes as adults. The treatment-on-the-treated effects show a 6% of a standard deviation improvement in human capital, 3% of a standard deviation increase in economic self-sufficiency, 8% of a standard deviation increase in the quality of neighbourhood of residence, a 1.2-year increase in life expectancy, and a 0.5 percentage-point decrease in likelihood of being incarcerated. These estimates suggest that Food Stamps’ transfer of resources to families is a highly cost-effective investment in young children, yielding a marginal value of public funds of approximately sixty-two.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135215424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Slaughter of the Bison and Reversal of Fortunes on the Great Plains 大平原上野牛的屠杀和命运的逆转
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad060
Donn L Feir, Rob Gillezeau, Maggie E C Jones
{"title":"The Slaughter of the Bison and Reversal of Fortunes on the Great Plains","authors":"Donn L Feir, Rob Gillezeau, Maggie E C Jones","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad060","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the late nineteenth century, the North American bison was brought to the brink of extinction in less than two decades. We demonstrate that the loss of the bison had immediate, negative consequences for the Native Americans who relied on them and ultimately resulted in a persistent reversal of fortunes. Once amongst the tallest people in the world, the generations of bison-reliant people born after the slaughter lost their entire height advantage. By the early twentieth century, child mortality was 16 percentage points higher and the probability of reporting an occupation 19 percentage points lower in bison nations compared with nations that were never reliant on the bison. Throughout the latter half of the twentieth century and into the present, income per capita has remained 25% lower, on average, for bison nations. This persistent gap cannot be explained by differences in agricultural productivity, self-governance, or application of the Dawes Act. We provide evidence that this historical shock altered the dynamic path of development for formerly bison-reliant nations. We demonstrate that limited access to credit constrained the ability of bison nations to adjust through re-specialization and migration.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135478829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Selfish Corporations 自私的公司
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-26 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad057
Emanuele Colonnelli, Niels Joachim Gormsen, Tim Mcquade
{"title":"Selfish Corporations","authors":"Emanuele Colonnelli, Niels Joachim Gormsen, Tim Mcquade","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study how perceptions of corporate responsibility influence policy preferences and the effectiveness of corporate communication when agents have imperfect memory recall. Using a new large-scale survey of U.S. citizens on their support for corporate bailouts, we first establish that the public demands corporations to behave better within society, a sentiment we label “big business discontent.” Using random variation in the order of survey sections and in the exposure to animated videos, we then show that priming respondents to think about corporate responsibility lowers the support for bailouts. This finding suggests that big business discontent influences policy preferences. Furthermore, we find that messages which paint a positive picture of corporate responsibility can “backfire,” as doing so brings attention to an aspect on which the public has negative views. In contrast, reframing corporate bailouts in terms of economic tradeoffs increases support for the policy. We develop a memory-based model of decision-making and communication to rationalize these findings.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135997457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets 致命的债务危机:新兴市场的COVID-19
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad058
Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai, Gabriel Mihalache
{"title":"Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets","authors":"Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai, Gabriel Mihalache","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad058","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Emerging markets have experienced large human and economic costs from coronavirus disease 2019, and their tight fiscal space has limited the support extended to their citizens. We study the impact of an epidemic on economic and health outcomes by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a sovereign default model. The sovereign’s option to default tightens fiscal space and results in an epidemic with limited mitigation and depressed consumption. A quantitative analysis of our model accounts well for the dynamics of fatalities, social distancing, consumption, sovereign debt, and spreads in Latin America. We find that because of default risk, the welfare cost of the pandemic is about a third higher than it is in a version of the model with perfect financial markets. We study debt relief programs and find a compelling case for their implementation. These programs deliver large social gains, improving health and economic outcomes for the country at no cost to international lenders or financial institutions.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134974638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Correction: regarding Article History dates for articles on journal Review of Economic Studies 更正:关于《经济研究评论》杂志上文章的历史日期
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad056
{"title":"Correction: regarding Article History dates for articles on journal Review of Economic Studies","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad056","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78741750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bilateral Trade Imbalances 双边贸易失衡
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad052
Alejandro Cuñat, Robert Zymek
{"title":"Bilateral Trade Imbalances","authors":"Alejandro Cuñat, Robert Zymek","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad052","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries’ bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, “triangular trade”, or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. A dynamic quantitative trade model suggests that eliminating these asymmetries would significantly reduce bilateral (but not macro) imbalances and have sizeable impacts on welfare. We provide evidence that the asymmetries we measure are in part related to the policy environment: trade inside the European Single Market appears to be subject to more bilaterally symmetric frictions. Extending the same symmetry to all parts of the global economy would give a large boost to the real incomes of several non-E.U. countries.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135960538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mortgage Design and Slow Recoveries: The Role of Recourse and Default 抵押贷款设计和缓慢复苏:追索权和违约的作用
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad055
Pedro Gete, Franco Zecchetto
{"title":"Mortgage Design and Slow Recoveries: The Role of Recourse and Default","authors":"Pedro Gete, Franco Zecchetto","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We show that mortgage recourse systems, by discouraging default, magnify the impact of nominal rigidities. They cause deeper and more persistent recessions. This mechanism can account for up to 31% of the recovery gap during the Great Recession between the U.S., mostly a non-recourse economy, and Spain, a recourse economy. General equilibrium effects explain most of the differences between mortgage systems. With recourse, highly indebted homeowners dramatically cut consumption in a crisis, and account for a larger share of the aggregate consumption decline. However, without recourse, mortgages would be more expensive for riskier households, and homeownership rates would be lower.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135286826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Demand and Welfare Analysis in Discrete Choice Models with Social Interactions 具有社会相互作用的离散选择模型中的需求与福利分析
1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad053
Debopam Bhattacharya, Pascaline Dupas, Shin Kanaya
{"title":"Demand and Welfare Analysis in Discrete Choice Models with Social Interactions","authors":"Debopam Bhattacharya, Pascaline Dupas, Shin Kanaya","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many real-life settings of individual choice involve social interactions, causing targeted policies to have spillover effects. This article develops novel empirical tools for analysing demand and welfare effects of policy interventions in binary choice settings with social interactions. Examples include subsidies for health-product adoption and vouchers for attending a high-achieving school. We show that even with fully parametric specifications and unique equilibrium, choice data, that are sufficient for counterfactual demand prediction under interactions, are insufficient for welfare calculations. This is because distinct underlying mechanisms producing the same interaction coefficient can imply different welfare effects and deadweight-loss from a policy intervention. Standard index restrictions imply distribution-free bounds on welfare. We propose ways to identify and consistently estimate the structural parameters and welfare bounds allowing for unobserved group effects that are potentially correlated with observables and are possibly unbounded. We illustrate our results using experimental data on mosquito-net adoption in rural Kenya.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135421547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Correction to: Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks 修正:不确定性冲击作为第二时刻新闻冲击
IF 5.8 1区 经济学
Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad050
{"title":"Correction to: Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad050","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74487780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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