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Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand? 房屋销售和价格的波动:供给还是需求?
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103610
Elliot Anenberg , Daniel Ringo
{"title":"Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?","authors":"Elliot Anenberg ,&nbsp;Daniel Ringo","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103610","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use a housing search model and data on individual home listings to decompose short-run fluctuations in home sales and price growth into supply or demand factors, defined as the number of new sellers and buyers entering the housing market, respectively. We find that fluctuations in the number of buyers demanding homes explain much more of the variation in home sales and price growth than do fluctuations in the supply of homes for sale. In our preferred paramaterization, fluctuations in demand explain essentially all of the variation in home sales, and most of the variation in prices. We consider two implications of these results. First, we show that reduction of supply was a minor factor relative to an increased number of buyers in the tightening of housing markets during COVID-19. New for-sale listings would have had to expand 30 percent to keep the rate of price growth at pre-pandemic levels given the pandemic-era surge in demand. Second, we estimate that the number of buyers demanding homes is very sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, even more so than comparable estimates for home sales, suggesting that policies that affect housing demand through mortgage rates can influence housing market dynamics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138472597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy 关于抵押贷款信贷扩张政策的经济影响:来自帮助购买的证据
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103611
Felipe Carozzi , Christian A.L. Hilber , Xiaolun Yu
{"title":"On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy","authors":"Felipe Carozzi ,&nbsp;Christian A.L. Hilber ,&nbsp;Xiaolun Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We take advantage of two spatial discontinuities in Britain's Help to Buy (HtB) scheme to explore the effectiveness and distributional implications of mortgage credit expansion policies. Employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design, we find that HtB significantly increased house prices and had no detectable effect on construction volumes in severely supply constrained and unaffordable Greater London. Conversely, HtB did increase construction numbers without a noticeable effect on prices near the English/Welsh border, an affordable area with comparably lax supply conditions. While HtB did not help would-be-buyers in already unaffordable areas, it boosted the financial performance of developers participating in the scheme.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119023000815/pdfft?md5=6a986eb2332d20726c71f3a2839afaa2&pid=1-s2.0-S0094119023000815-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138474815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Making their own weather? Estimating employer labour-market power and its wage effects 自己造天气?估计雇主劳动力市场力量及其对工资的影响
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103614
Pedro S. Martins , António Melo
{"title":"Making their own weather? Estimating employer labour-market power and its wage effects","authors":"Pedro S. Martins ,&nbsp;António Melo","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The subdued wage growth observed in many countries has spurred interest in monopsony views of regional labour markets. This study measures the extent and robustness of employer power and its wage implications exploiting comprehensive matched employer–employee data. We find average (employment-weighted) Herfindhal indices of 800 to 1,100, stable over the 1986–2019 period covered, and that typically less than 8% of workers are exposed to concentration levels thought to raise market power concerns. When controlling for both worker and firm heterogeneity and instrumenting for concentration, we find that wages are negatively affected by employer concentration, with elasticities of around −1.4%. We also find that several methodological choices can change significantly both the measurement of concentration and its wage effects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119023000840/pdfft?md5=12b8c77b6b44a9f42826c20ed34992ee&pid=1-s2.0-S0094119023000840-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138436662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pushing towards shared mobility 推动共享出行
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103609
Roman Zakharenko
{"title":"Pushing towards shared mobility","authors":"Roman Zakharenko","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides a theoretical argument for preferential treatment of shared vehicles (SV) over private ones by municipal parking authorities. When all parked vehicles are treated equally, multiple equilibria may exist: (i) a “private” one, in which travellers are hesitant to switch to SV because the latter are hard to find, and (ii) a “shared” equilibrium, in which travellers use shared mobility because the city is saturated with vacant SV. The latter equilibrium, if it exists, is shown to yield higher welfare. Municipal parking discounts for SV reduce the amount of investment required for a “big push” towards the shared equilibrium, or even make it the only equilibrium.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119023000797/pdfft?md5=bf77fbd87dcfc4b7a55dad99b09ec034&pid=1-s2.0-S0094119023000797-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92122407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local causes and aggregate implications of land use regulation 土地使用管制的地方原因和总体影响
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103605
Andrii Parkhomenko
{"title":"Local causes and aggregate implications of land use regulation","authors":"Andrii Parkhomenko","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I study why some cities have strict land use regulation, how regulation affects the U.S. economy, and how policymakers can mitigate its negative consequences. I develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model where local regulation is determined endogenously, by voting. Landowners in productive cities with attractive amenities vote for strict regulation. The model accounts for 40% of the observed differences in regulation across cities. Quantitative experiments show that excessive local regulation reduces aggregate productivity, but not necessarily welfare because, unlike renters, landowners benefit from regulation. I propose federal policies that raise productivity and welfare by weakening incentives to regulate land use.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91986811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Housing market and school choice response to school quality information shocks✰ 住房市场与择校对学校质量信息冲击的反应
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103606
Iftikhar Hussain
{"title":"Housing market and school choice response to school quality information shocks✰","authors":"Iftikhar Hussain","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103606","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates market response to a nationwide school quality information disclosure regime. Exploiting quasi-exogenous timing of the release of information through the school year, I uncover a number of novel empirical findings. First, investigating the house price margin, the results reveal a strikingly convex hedonic price function: large effects to school quality ratings for homes located near schools serving advantaged students but little impact in poorer neighborhoods. These heterogeneous effects can help reconcile relatively modest overall mean school quality capitalization effects with, for example, the large fees wealthier families typically pay for private schools. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the impact of credible and low frequency school quality information shocks persists through the medium term. Finally, exploring the impact of the same information intervention on the school choice margin demonstrates that uprated schools serving advantaged students experience dramatic increases in demand from local families, however response for schools serving less advantaged families is more muted.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119023000761/pdfft?md5=8cbc16b2a2642fb68d654667c9bc7f03&pid=1-s2.0-S0094119023000761-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91986808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Homeowner politics and housing supply 房主政治与住房供应
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103608
Limin Fang , Nathan Stewart , Justin Tyndall
{"title":"Homeowner politics and housing supply","authors":"Limin Fang ,&nbsp;Nathan Stewart ,&nbsp;Justin Tyndall","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines whether homeowner opposition to nearby housing development affects local councillors’ votes on housing bills. Homeowners benefit financially from restricted housing supply through increased housing prices. City councillors, who approve housing development applications, cater to the needs of homeowners who are often long-term resident voters with a financial stake in neighbourhood amenity levels. Using data from Toronto, Canada from 2009 to 2020, we identify housing bills through a machine learning algorithm. We find that councillors who represent more homeowners oppose more housing bills. In particular, councillors are significantly more likely to oppose large housing developments if the project is within their own ward.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91986809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social housing and the spread of population: Evidence from twentieth century Ireland 社会住房与人口扩散:来自二十世纪爱尔兰的证据
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103603
Alan de Bromhead , Ronan C. Lyons
{"title":"Social housing and the spread of population: Evidence from twentieth century Ireland","authors":"Alan de Bromhead ,&nbsp;Ronan C. Lyons","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does housing policy influence the long-run distribution of population? We examine the impact on long-term population dynamics of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme, specifically the case of Ireland’s <em>Labourers Acts</em>. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883–1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. We also highlight the role of agglomeration in amplifying the impact of the initial investment. Mediation analysis suggests that schooling was a key factor, with districts receiving more cottages less likely to lose primary schools, thus further influencing population growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119023000736/pdfft?md5=2031f7b7f1ec22da89d81d40e128d067&pid=1-s2.0-S0094119023000736-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91986810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Variation in racial disparities in police use of force 警察使用武力方面的种族差异
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103602
Carl Lieberman
{"title":"Variation in racial disparities in police use of force","authors":"Carl Lieberman","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>I examine how racial disparities in police use of force vary using new data covering every municipal police department in New Jersey. Along the intensive margin of force severity, I find disparities that disfavor Black subjects and are larger at higher force levels, even after adjusting for incident-level factors and using new techniques to address selection bias. I then extend empirical </span>Bayes methods to estimate department-specific racial disparities and observe significant differences across and within these hundreds of departments. My findings suggest that ignoring heterogeneity in police use of force misrepresents the problem and masks the existence of both departments with very large disparities and those without apparent disparities against Black civilians, but the variation even within departments may make identifying and treating inequitable policing difficult.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136119729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The geography of mortgage interest deductions 抵押贷款利息扣除的地理位置
IF 6.3 1区 经济学
Journal of Urban Economics Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103604
Yashar Blouri , Simon Büchler , Olivier Schöni
{"title":"The geography of mortgage interest deductions","authors":"Yashar Blouri ,&nbsp;Simon Büchler ,&nbsp;Olivier Schöni","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2023.103604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the heterogeneous impact of the US federal mortgage interest deduction (MID) on households’ location and tenure decisions. We develop a spatial general-equilibrium model featuring non-homothetic preferences in which households can choose whether to claim the MID or a standard tax deduction. Repealing the MID decreases homeownership rates more strongly in central areas because owner-occupiers migrate to the countryside. Welfare increases slightly because positive externalities from less congested housing markets and undistorted tenure decisions outweigh productivity losses in central locations. An increase in standard tax deductions, as implemented in 2018 by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, leads to a similar welfare increase.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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