Luis L Schenoni, Gary Goertz, Andrew P Owsiak, Paul F Diehl
{"title":"The Saavedra Lamas Peace: How a Norm Complex Evolved and Crystallized to Eliminate War in the Americas","authors":"Luis L Schenoni, Gary Goertz, Andrew P Owsiak, Paul F Diehl","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae047","url":null,"abstract":"s After the Napoleonic Wars interstate war regularly occurred throughout the Western Hemisphere—until in matter of decades it disappeared. After the 1930s even low-level militarized interstate conflict became less frequent, shorter, and less severe over time. What explains the change in this specific region and historical jucture? We argue that leaders in the Americas identified territorial disputes and foreign intervention as interrelated problems that frequently caused the interstate war. In response, they developed a unique regional norm-complex that bundled together the norms of territorial integrity and non-intervention with the principle of peaceful conflict resolution. This norm complex emerged via Latin American entrepreneurship shortly after independence, cascaded with Pan-Americanism, and crystallized around the signature of the Saavedra Lamas Treaty in the early 1930s. We explain how, why, and when norm complexes develop. We then investigate the evolution and effects of the Latin American norm complex via statistics and within-case counterfactuals. We conclude that interstate war disappeared from the Americas with the acceptance and codification of this norm-complex.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140545533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Diplomatic Representation and Online/Offline Interactions: EU Coordination and Digital Sociability","authors":"Elsa Hedling","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae022","url":null,"abstract":"European Union (EU) diplomatic representation in third countries is performed by both the Member States and by the EU Delegation. This hybrid system of representation functions through EU coordination. As social media have become important channels of state representation, coordination also takes place in the domain of digital diplomacy. This article analyzes how the EU Member State embassies and the EU Delegation coordinate EU representation through online and offline interactions. It investigates the practices of coordination and maps routines of digital sociability. The United States’ capital Washington, DC provides a context of both strong bilateral relations and a history of shared EU interests. The study draws on observations on Twitter (later renamed X) between 2019 and 2021 and reflections from diplomats who engage in the coordination of EU representation, collected through an online survey and interviews. By examining the reciprocity between online and offline interactions, the study illuminates how relationships are cultivated, a sense of collective belonging is fostered, and social order is negotiated. The findings enhance our understanding of how digital diplomacy is deeply embedded within diplomatic contexts and their distinctive practices. They contribute to advancing knowledge about the interplay of digital diplomacy, multilateral representation, and the dynamics that shape diplomatic engagements.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140542098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Positionality Statements as a Function of Coloniality: Interrogating Reflexive Methodologies","authors":"Jasmine K Gani, Rabea M Khan","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae038","url":null,"abstract":"s Declaration of positionality and the confession of privilege as a way of revealing unequal power dynamics in knowledge production has become an increasingly encouraged reflexive practice in international relations and other disciplines. However, we interrogate the potentially negative implications of this methodology, occurring through a reification of material, assumed, and imagined hierarchies between people, which then is advertised and (re)produced by its utterance. We further query the modernist origins of reflexive methodology, which has inspired the practice of declaring positionality, and argue that its underpinning coloniality has bearings for its use today. We then explore how this coloniality manifests: Thus, first, we consider the extent to which publicly acknowledging privilege paradoxically acts as a means of centering whiteness through the narcissistic gaze and an assertion of legitimacy. Second, we argue positionality statements offer a redemption of guilt for the hegemonic researcher. And lastly, rather than ameliorating unequal power dynamics in the production of knowledge, we contend positionality statements may constitute hidden power moves in which one is able to signal and reinstate one’s authority vis-à-vis people, but especially women, of color. We end with a call for a reparative scholarship that acknowledges these limitations in positionality statements.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140542163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Construction of Terrorist Threat in Mali: Agency and Narratives of Intervention","authors":"Joe Gazeley","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae056","url":null,"abstract":"s Through a close textual analysis of US diplomatic cables and other relevant documents, this article provides new empirical data to trace the mutual construction of Mali as a site of terrorist threat. It argues that this mutual construction paradoxically enhanced the agency of Malian foreign policy elites in negotiations with their US interlocutors and highlights the effectiveness of Malian deployment of this discourse to shape the terms upon which intervention took place in the 2002–2012 period. It shifts the focus of the analysis of intervention in Mali both in space and in time through centering the US–Mali relationship pre-2012, displacing the dominant post-2013 France–Mali frame. This opens up a new dialectical and interimperial perspective on the agency of the Malian foreign policy elite in shaping the terms upon which intervention took place. This demonstrates the need for both a wider lens and a longer historical scope on investigations of intervention, particularly relevant as this discourse of terrorist threat has since 2013 spread beyond Mali to the wider Sahel region.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140539052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Credibility in Crises: How Patrons Reassure Their Allies","authors":"Lauren Sukin, Alexander Lanoszka","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae062","url":null,"abstract":"s How do citizens of US allies assess different reassurance strategies? This article investigates the effects of US reassurance policies on public opinion in allied states. We design and conduct a survey experiment in five Central–Eastern European states—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania—in March 2022. Set against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this experiment asked respondents to evaluate four types of reassurance strategies, each a critical tool in US crisis response policy: military deployments, diplomatic summitry, economic sanctions, and public reaffirmations of security guarantees. The international security literature typically values capabilities for their deterrence and reassurance benefits, while largely dismissing public reaffirmations as “cheap talk” and economic sanctions as being ineffective. Yet we find preferences for the use of economic sanctions and public statements as reassurance strategies during crises, in part because these approaches help states manage escalation risks.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140534109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign Sponsorship of Armed Groups and Civil War","authors":"Michael A Rubin, Iris Malone","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae065","url":null,"abstract":"s Under what conditions do armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war? Existing research suggests foreign states’ material support is critical to explaining armed groups' conduct during civil war and, thereby, war intensification, duration, and outcomes. Thus far, little attention has been paid to understanding whether and how foreign support influences whether armed groups fight civil wars in the first place, largely due to data limitations. Armed group-level datasets have included only those already engaged in significant civil war violence, which introduces selection bias that precludes investigating factors that influence which groups fight civil wars. Leveraging the new Armed Groups Dataset (AGD), which measures characteristics of armed groups engaged in lower-level violence, we conduct a preliminary empirical investigation into the explanatory role of foreign sponsorship in group-level variation in civil war. While foreign sponsorship and civil war are correlated, there is little evidence that sponsorship has substantial independent explanatory value in predicting civil war. Rather, the evidence is consistent with claims that armed groups’ organizational characteristics account for both access to foreign sponsorship and, independently, their likelihood of escalating civil war.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140534107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mass Emigration and the Erosion of Liberal Democracy","authors":"Daniel Auer, Max Schaub","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae026","url":null,"abstract":"s In many regions of the world, liberal politics is on the retreat. This development is usually explained with reference to inherently political phenomena. We propose an alternative explanation, linking democratic backsliding to deep-reaching demographic change caused by mass emigration. We argue that because migrants tend to be more politically liberal, their departure, if quantitatively significant, can hurt liberal democracy. Empirically, we focus on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Since 2004, the region has lost about 9 percent of its population due to migration to Western Europe. Drawing on data from 430,000 individuals and a panel analysis, we show that CEE migrants systematically hold more liberal values than non-migrants and that their exit went along with a deterioration of democracy in their home countries. Further analyses show that the mechanism we describe generalizes to various other world regions. Mass emigration may pose a challenge to democratic development in migrant-sending countries around the globe.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"263 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140534135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bending the Automation Bias Curve: A Study of Human and AI-Based Decision Making in National Security Contexts","authors":"Michael C Horowitz, Lauren Kahn","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae020","url":null,"abstract":"Uses of artificial intelligence (AI) are growing around the world. What will influence AI adoption in the international security realm? Research on automation bias suggests that humans can often be overconfident in AI, whereas research on algorithm aversion shows that, as the stakes of a decision rise, humans become more cautious about trusting algorithms. We theorize about the relationship between background knowledge about AI, trust in AI, and how these interact with other factors to influence the probability of automation bias in the international security context. We test these in a preregistered task identification experiment across a representative sample of 9,000 adults in nine countries with varying levels of AI industries. The results strongly support the theory, especially concerning AI background knowledge. A version of the Dunning–Kruger effect appears to be at play, whereby those with the lowest level of experience with AI are slightly more likely to be algorithm-averse, then automation bias occurs at lower levels of knowledge before leveling off as a respondent’s AI background reaches the highest levels. Additional results show effects from the task’s difficulty, overall AI trust, and whether a human or AI decision aid is described as highly competent or less competent.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140533261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Compliance Agreements: Emergent Flexibility in the Inter-American Human Rights System","authors":"Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Mariana Brocca, Isabel Anayanssi Orizaga Inzunza","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae032","url":null,"abstract":"Are agreements between states and victims an effective way to achieve reparations for human rights violations? We identify and evaluate a legal instrument hitherto ignored in analyses of the Inter-American Human Rights System: compliance agreements. These agreements emerged as a tool to negotiate the implementation of recommendations made by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to states responsible for human rights violations. In the first part of the paper, we theorize the role of agreements in securing state compliance, and discuss the problem of self-selection in legal settlements. We then document the emergence of this legal instrument and its novel role in the Inter-American System. In the third part, we provide statistical evidence from event history, matching, difference-in-differences, and sensitivity analyses showing that agreements increase the probability of compliance and cut the expected time to compliance by more than half. Agreements thus contribute to a potential solution for the perceived crisis of compliance in the Inter-American Human Rights System. However, the Commission must offer greater transparency to facilitate the evaluation of this mechanism.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140533269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Carrots as Sticks: How Effective Are Foreign Aid Suspensions and Economic Sanctions?","authors":"Claas Mertens","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae016","url":null,"abstract":"Existing research shows that economic coercion successfully influences targeted states’ behavior 38 percent of the time. This article integrates research on economic sanctions and foreign aid by assessing the relative effectiveness of two types of economic coercion: economic sanctions and foreign aid suspensions. It argues that suspending aid is more effective than adopting economic sanctions because (1) aid suspensions are economically beneficial for the adopting state, while sanctions are costly, (2) aid suspensions directly affect the targeted government’s budget, (3) market forces undermine sanctions but not aid suspensions, and (4) aid suspensions are less likely to spark adverse behavioral reactions. A quantitative analysis estimates the success rate of imposed aid suspensions to be 44 percent and that of economic sanctions to be 26 percent. The results are robust across two alternative datasets on economic coercion, and qualitative evidence corroborates the outlined mechanisms. The findings suggest that economic sanctions are less effective than previously thought and that large donor states have a higher chance of achieving political goals through economic coercion.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140331259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}