International Studies Quarterly最新文献_第6页

Does Public Opinion on Foreign Policy Affect Elite Preferences? Evidence from the 2022 US Sanctions against Russia 外交政策的民意会影响精英的偏好吗？来自2022年美国对俄罗斯制裁的证据

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae145

Anton Peez, Felix S Bethke

{"title":"Does Public Opinion on Foreign Policy Affect Elite Preferences? Evidence from the 2022 US Sanctions against Russia","authors":"Anton Peez, Felix S Bethke","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae145","url":null,"abstract":"Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elite decision-makers. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a preregistered experiment within the 2022 TRIP survey of US foreign policy practitioners, offering a rare opportunity for a fairly large elite survey experiment ($N = 253$). We used contemporary public polling highly supportive of increasing sanctions as an information treatment. Our research design, involving a salient issue and real-world treatment, substantially expands on previous work. Exposure to the treatment raises elite support for increasing sanctions from 68.0 percent to 76.3 percent (+8.3 pp.). While meaningful, this effect is smaller than those identified elsewhere. We argue that this difference is driven by pretreatment dynamics related to issue salience and ceiling effects and is therefore all the more notable. We provide evidence for substantial treatment effect heterogeneity depending on subject-matter expertise, degree of involvement in political decision-making, and gender, but not party identification. While our results support previous research, they highlight issues of external validity and the context-dependence of elite responsiveness.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Effect of International Actors on Public Support for Government Spending Decisions 国际行为体对公众支持政府支出决策的影响

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae150

Pablo M Pinto, Stephanie J Rickard, James Raymond Vreeland

引用次数: 0

Insuring the Weak: The Institutional Power Equilibrium in International Organizations 保障弱者：国际组织中的制度性权力均衡

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae146

Benjamin Daßler, Tim Heinkelmann-Wild, Martijn Huysmans

{"title":"Insuring the Weak: The Institutional Power Equilibrium in International Organizations","authors":"Benjamin Daßler, Tim Heinkelmann-Wild, Martijn Huysmans","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae146","url":null,"abstract":"Materially powerful states tend to dominate both the creation of international organizations (IOs) as well as subsequent IO policymaking. Materially weak states are nevertheless expected to participate in IOs since it is generally assumed that they will still profit from cooperation and prefer power to be exercised through institutions. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how exactly institutional rules protect weak states from the powerful in IOs. This paper develops a theory of institutional design that specifies the institutional power equilibrium at the heart of IOs’ constitutional treaties. Through the inclusion of veto or exit rights, weak states obtain formal safeguards against exploitation by the powerful during an IO’s operation. This expectation of a power equilibrium in IOs’ design is borne out in design patterns within the constitutional treaties of IOs created between 1945 and 2005. Our results indicate that the distribution of power among an IO’s founding members indeed affects the inclusion of institutional safeguards in their constitutional treaties and that veto and exit rights are functional substitutes in this regard. Our findings matter since the institutional power equilibrium at IO creation has important implications for relations between the materially powerful and the weak during IO operations.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Nonresident Prime Ministers? Measuring India’s Foreign Policy Orientation via Leadership Travel 非常驻总理？通过领导层旅行衡量印度的外交政策取向

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae144

Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, Walter C Ladwig III

{"title":"Nonresident Prime Ministers? Measuring India’s Foreign Policy Orientation via Leadership Travel","authors":"Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, Walter C Ladwig III","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae144","url":null,"abstract":"As a rising India has sought both standing and recognition in the international system, observers have debated whether revisionist or status quo tendencies have characterized the country’s engagement with the outside world since the end of the Cold War. One way to gain insight into such issues is to study the behavior of its apex leaders. Face-to-face diplomacy and high-level visits are an increasingly prominent feature of India’s international relations. Given the scarce nature of senior officials’ time, where they choose to travel can serve as a key indicator of their priorities. Employing an original data set, we analyze the factors shaping foreign travel by Indian prime ministers and foreign ministers between 1992 and 2019. These indicate that strategic interests—rather than ideological affinity with the Global South, domestic politics, or bureaucratic routine—have the primary role in shaping India’s foreign engagement. Since foreign visits are purposeful, where Indian leaders travel can be assessed for indicators of revisionist or status quo leanings in the country’s foreign policy. Although examination of the specific patterns of overseas visits does not indicate definitive membership of either camp, they do highlight aspects of India’s contested relationship with the current international order.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of the Balance of Power 夸夸其谈还是令人信服的主张？反叛新闻与平民对权力平衡的看法

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae142

Caleb Lucas

引用次数: 0

Replicating the Resource Curse: A Qualitative Replication of Ross 2004 复制资源诅咒：罗斯的定性复制2004

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae125

Megan Becker, Jonathan Markowitz, Sarah Orsborn, Isabelle Nazha, Srividya Dasaraju, Lindsay Lauder

引用次数: 0

When Generalized Trust Matters? Impact of Industrial Tertiarization on Trade Preference Formation 广义信任何时重要？产业三级化对贸易优惠形成的影响

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae143

Masafumi Fujita

{"title":"When Generalized Trust Matters? Impact of Industrial Tertiarization on Trade Preference Formation","authors":"Masafumi Fujita","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae143","url":null,"abstract":"Generalized trust has attracted attention as a non-material disposition that affects risk perception in political and economic international cooperation. However, its effect on public support for free trade or trade agreements has been debated. This debate centers on whether the economic impacts of trade are evident or uncertain to ordinary citizens because generalized trust operates only when trade impacts are uncertain and risk perception is crucial. However, the visibility of trade impacts varies significantly depending on the economic environment. This study explores the role of industrial tertiarization, the shift from agriculture and manufacturing to services, in altering the visibility of trade impacts. It hypothesizes that generalized trust shapes trade preferences primarily in highly tertiarized local economies. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Studies and World Values Survey Wave 7, this hypothesis was tested and confirmed. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that the influence of generalized trust on trade preferences varies with the level of local tertiarization. It also proposes new causal mechanisms for understanding anti-globalism in developed countries and suggests that the influence of economic impacts on trade preferences may similarly depend on local tertiarization levels.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142805343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Power Grabs from the Top: A Database of Self-Coups 权力从上层攫取：自我政变的数据库

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae147

Arthur A Goldsmith

{"title":"Power Grabs from the Top: A Database of Self-Coups","authors":"Arthur A Goldsmith","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae147","url":null,"abstract":"This research note introduces new global data on self-coups—rapid moves by sitting executive leaders to “overthrow” their own governments and illegitimately maintain or extend power. Self-coups are distinct from ordinary coups (sudden illegal attempts by other elites to topple the sitting executive) and overlap with incumbent takeovers (incremental quasi-legal steps by the sitting executive to amass power). Still, there is conceptual discord about what delineates self-coups and a resultant lack of consensus about basic facts, even about where and when self-coups have happened. To provide a firmer foundation for investigating the self-coup phenomenon systematically, I draw from eight datasets and original data collection and coding to present comprehensive data on 147 individual events (plus 90 candidate incidents that did not fully meet the criteria) in the 1950–2022 period. The dataset provides information on the perpetrators, targets, flashpoint dates, and methods of these events. Illustrative statistical analysis suggests that following a self-coup, the level of international economic aid tends to have a negative effect on the probability that a country will hold competitive elections. Future research may apply these data for a better understanding of the causes of self-coups and the long-term effects of self-coups on political and economic development.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142805341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

IMF Lending Programs and Repression in Autocracies 国际货币基金组织的贷款项目和专制国家的镇压

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae149

Stephen C Nelson, Christopher P Dinkel

{"title":"IMF Lending Programs and Repression in Autocracies","authors":"Stephen C Nelson, Christopher P Dinkel","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae149","url":null,"abstract":"Do International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs increase repression in borrowing countries? We argue that repression worsens when autocratic governments enter conditional lending arrangements with the IMF. Autocracies are likelier than democracies to harshly crackdown during episodes of heightened protest and unrest triggered by IMF-mandated adjustment and structural reform programs. But harsh repression of anticipated spikes in dissent spurred by liberalization-oriented IMF conditions may also be used by autocrats to proactively signal their commitment to preserve regime insiders’ advantages. We present several tests of the arguments in the article. In the first test, we use a compound instrumental variable to estimate the conditional difference in human rights scores between IMF program participation and non-participation in both democratic and autocratic country-years (1975–2014). We do not find evidence for clear links between IMF program participation and human rights in developing democracies. In autocracies, however, the relationship between IMF lending programs and human rights respect is consistently negative and significant. In further tests, we isolate the impact of different types of IMF conditionality. Evidence suggests that IMF programs with more numerous structural reforms (namely, pro-privatization conditions) are associated with lower human rights protections in autocratic countries.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"113 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142805340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models 极值推理：计算计数回归模型中的极端值

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae137

David Randahl, Johan Vegelius

引用次数: 0