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The Beauty of Uncertainty: The Rise of Insurance Contracts and Markets in Medieval Europe 不确定性之美:中世纪欧洲保险合同和市场的兴起
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad059
Maristella Botticini, Pietro Buri, Massimo Marinacci
{"title":"The Beauty of Uncertainty: The Rise of Insurance Contracts and Markets in Medieval Europe","authors":"Maristella Botticini, Pietro Buri, Massimo Marinacci","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad059","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Maritime insurance developed in medieval Europe is the ancestor of all forms of insurance that appeared subsequently. We address the question of why modern insurance was first invented in medieval Europe, and neither earlier nor elsewhere. Drawing from insights from the literature on uncertainty aversion, we show that medieval merchants had to bear more frequently natural risks (they traveled longer distances) and new human risks with unknown probabilities (they faced unpredictable attacks by corsairs due to increased political fragmentation and commercial competition in Europe). The increased demand for protection in medieval seaborne trade met the supply of protection by a small group of wealthy merchants with a broad information network who could pool risks and profit from selling protection through a novel business device: the insurance contract. A new market—the market for insurance—was then born. Next, analyzing more than seven thousand insurance contracts redacted by notaries and about one hundred court proceedings housed in the archives of Barcelona, Florence, Genoa, Palermo, Prato, and Venice, we study the main features of medieval trade, the type of risks faced by merchants, and the characteristics of insurance contracts and markets from 1340 to 1500. The empirical analysis delivers two main findings. First, risks related to human activities (e.g., attacks by corsairs) seem to have had a relatively greater impact on insurance premia compared to natural risks (proxied by seasonal risks). Second, distance mattered but the route seems to have had a greater impact on insurance premia. Specific routes (e.g., in the Tyrrenian and the western Mediterranean) were more plagued by human risks, which were harder to avoid for the majority of merchants who did not have a broad information network compared to the few wealthy merchants, who became the key players in selling insurance in the early stages of the development of insurance markets.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136178133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Behavioral Macroeconomics VIA Sparse Dynamic Programming 基于稀疏动态规划的行为宏观经济学
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad057
Xavier Gabaix
{"title":"Behavioral Macroeconomics VIA Sparse Dynamic Programming","authors":"Xavier Gabaix","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper proposes a tractable way to model boundedly rational dynamic programming. The agent uses an endogenously simplified, or “sparse,” model of the world and the consequences of his actions and acts according to a behavioral Bellman equation. The framework yields a behavioral version of some of the canonical models in macroeconomics and finance. In the life-cycle model, the agent initially does not pay much attention to retirement and undersaves; late in life, he progressively saves more, generating realistic dynamics. In the consumption-savings model, the consumer decides to pay little or no attention to the interest rate and more attention to his income. Ricardian equivalence and the Lucas critique partially fail because the consumer may not pay full attention to taxes and policy changes. In a Merton-style dynamic portfolio choice problem, the agent endogenously pays limited or no attention to the varying equity premium and hedging demand terms. Finally, in the neoclassical growth model, agents act on a simplified model of the macroeconomy; in equilibrium, fluctuations are larger and more persistent.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136058225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States 社交媒体对选举的影响:来自美国的证据
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad058
Thomas Fujiwara, Karsten Müller, Carlo Schwarz
{"title":"The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States","authors":"Thomas Fujiwara, Karsten Müller, Carlo Schwarz","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad058","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter’s rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congressional elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter’s relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136212814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inattention and the Taxation Bias 疏忽和税收偏见
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad056
Jérémy Boccanfuso, Antoine Ferey
{"title":"Inattention and the Taxation Bias","authors":"Jérémy Boccanfuso, Antoine Ferey","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad056","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper shows that inattention to taxes generates a time-inconsistency problem in the choice of tax policy, leading to higher taxes in equilibrium. These discretionary tax increases are inefficient as they are deviations from the socially optimal commitment policy. We call these deviations a taxation bias. Combining sufficient statistics and structural approaches, we quantify the magnitude of this policy distortion for the U.S. redistributive tax-transfer system. We find that the taxation bias ranges between 3 and 8 percentage points, alters tax-transfer progressivity, and has significant welfare effects. Overall, our findings shed new light on the implications of inattention and misperceptions.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"168 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135302167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pessimism, Disagreement, and Economic Fluctuations 悲观、分歧和经济波动
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad055
Guangyu Pei
{"title":"Pessimism, Disagreement, and Economic Fluctuations","authors":"Guangyu Pei","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The pessimistic bias and the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ subjective beliefs heighten during recessions. We provide empirical evidence for a dominant non-inflationary aggregate demand shock that accounts for the bulk of business-cycle fluctuations not only in real quantities but also in (1) pessimism—to what degree households are more pessimistic than the rational expectation benchmark and (2) disagreement—the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ beliefs. To rationalize the empirical findings, this paper develops a theory of ambiguity-driven business cycles, where the Bayesian formulation of the ambiguity shock can generate positive co-movements across real quantities together with counter-cyclical pessimism and disagreement within the real business-cycle framework. Our theory reproduces the salient features of the business cycles extended with survey data on households’ expectations. Quantitatively, the ambiguity shock alone accounts for a significant fraction of the business-cycle fluctuations in pessimism, disagreement, and real quantities.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"2014 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135458560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade Disruption, Industrialisation, and the Setting Sun of British Colonial Rule in India 贸易中断、工业化和英国在印度殖民统治的夕阳
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad054
Roberto Bonfatti, Björn Brey
{"title":"Trade Disruption, Industrialisation, and the Setting Sun of British Colonial Rule in India","authors":"Roberto Bonfatti, Björn Brey","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Colonial trade prompted the colonies to specialise in primary products. Did this eliminate industrialisation opportunities in the colonies, and did it make them more politically dependent on the coloniser? To answer these questions, we examine the impact of the World War I trade shock on industrial growth and support for the anti-colonial movement in India. We find that districts more exposed to a drop in imports experienced faster industrial growth in 1911–1921, thereafter remaining on a higher level of industrial employment. All evidence points to an increase in Indian productivities as the reason for this, suggesting that liberal trade policies may not have been optimal for colonial India. We also find that districts, which industrialised faster thanks to WWI were more likely to support the Indian National Congress. This is consistent with the view that specialisation in primary products made the colonies more politically dependent on the coloniser.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"125 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136119566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes Over Time: U.S. Reforms and Outcomes 所得税长期建模的重要性:美国的改革和结果
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad053
Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Michael Pak, Nicolo Russo, Fang Yang
{"title":"The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes Over Time: U.S. Reforms and Outcomes","authors":"Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Michael Pak, Nicolo Russo, Fang Yang","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reform since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples and singles to show that the various tax regimes that we estimate imply very different labor market and saving behavior. These findings stress the importance of studying and modeling tax changes over time and across groups.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135438418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Traumatic Experiences Adversely Affect Life Cycle Labor Market Outcomes of the Next Generation - Evidence from Wwii Nazi Raids 创伤性经历对下一代的生命周期劳动力市场结果有不利影响——来自二战纳粹袭击的证据
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad052
Vincenzo Atella, Edoardo Di Porto, Joanna Kopinska, Maarten Lindeboom
{"title":"Traumatic Experiences Adversely Affect Life Cycle Labor Market Outcomes of the Next Generation - Evidence from Wwii Nazi Raids","authors":"Vincenzo Atella, Edoardo Di Porto, Joanna Kopinska, Maarten Lindeboom","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad052","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the causal effect of a traumatic event experienced by pregnant women on the life-long labor market outcomes of their offspring. We exploit a unique natural experiment that involved randomly placed Nazi raids in municipalities in Italy during WWII. We link administrative data on male private sector workers to information about Nazi raids and war casualties. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to traumatic events affects offspring earnings throughout the working career and in retirement. The lower earnings are due to lower educational attainment, the type of jobs held, and interruptions in working careers due to unemployment. We further find that prenatal exposure exacerbates the adverse effects of later-life job loss on earnings. We use a medical database on health expenditures to interpret the effect estimates. The prenatally exposed have higher medical expenditures on diseases of the nervous system and mental disorders, indicating that stress is likely to be an important factor driving our findings.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135320060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: a Structural Approach 养老金改革的生命周期效应:一种结构方法
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad049
Claudio Daminato, Mario Padula
{"title":"The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: a Structural Approach","authors":"Claudio Daminato, Mario Padula","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited 权力结构与制度兼容性理论:中国与欧洲的再考察
2区 经济学
Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad050
Ruixue Jia, Gérard Roland, Yang Xie
{"title":"A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited","authors":"Ruixue Jia, Gérard Roland, Yang Xie","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad050","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To better understand institutional differences across space and time, we propose a two-dimensional framework of the power structure among three players in society: the degree of absolute power of the Ruler over the Elites and the People, and the degree of asymmetry between the latter two in terms of their everyday rights and power. Within this framework, we show that a more absolutist Ruler prefers a more balanced Elite-People relationship. This theory helps in particular to reconcile views on the comparison between imperial China and premodern Europe that would seem contradictory in one-dimensional or two-estate frameworks: the Ruler’s absolute power was weaker in Europe, whereas the Elite-People relationship was more balanced in China. Our approach also helps more generally to interpret specific institutions and other variations in power structures.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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