Political Analysis最新文献_第6页

PAN volume 31 issue 1 Cover and Front matter PAN第31卷第1期封面和封面问题

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.37

引用次数: 0

PAN volume 31 issue 1 Cover and Back matter PAN第31卷第1期封面和封底

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.38

引用次数: 0

Bridging the Grade Gap: Reducing Assessment Bias in a Multi-Grader Class 缩小成绩差距：减少多年级学生的评估偏差

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.27

Sean Kates, Tine Paulsen, Sidak Yntiso, Joshua A. Tucker

引用次数: 1

Automated Coding of Political Campaign Advertisement Videos: An Empirical Validation Study 政治竞选广告视频的自动编码:实证验证研究

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.26

Alexander Tarr, June Hwang, Kosuke Imai

引用次数: 6

The Consequences of Model Misspecification for the Estimation of Nonlinear Interaction Effects 非线性相互作用效应估计中模型不精确的后果

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.25

Janina Beiser-McGrath, Liam F. Beiser-McGrath

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引用次数: 1

Measuring Swing Voters with a Supervised Machine Learning Ensemble 用监督机器学习集成测量摇摆选民

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.24

Christopher Hare, Mikayla Kutsuris

{"title":"Measuring Swing Voters with a Supervised Machine Learning Ensemble","authors":"Christopher Hare, Mikayla Kutsuris","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.24","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Theory has long suggested that swing voting is a response to cross-pressures arising from a mix of individual attributes and contextual factors. Unfortunately, existing regression-based approaches are ill-suited to explore the complex combinations of demographic, policy, and political factors that produce swing voters in American elections. This gap between theory and practice motivates our use of an ensemble of supervised machine learning methods to predict swing voters in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. The results from the learning ensemble substantiate the existence of swing voters in contemporary American elections. Specifically, we demonstrate that the learning ensemble produces well-calibrated and externally valid predictions of swing voter propensity in later elections and for related behaviors such as split-ticket voting. Although interpreting black-box models is more challenging, they can nonetheless provide meaningful substantive insights meriting further exploration. Here, we use flexible model-agnostic tools to perturb the ensemble and demonstrate that cross-pressures (particularly those involving ideological and policy-related considerations) are essential to accurately predict swing voters.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46221099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Change-Point Detection and Regularization in Time Series Cross-Sectional Data Analysis 时间序列截面数据分析中的变点检测与正则化

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.23

J. Park, S. Yamauchi

引用次数: 0

PAN volume 30 issue 4 Cover and Front matter PAN第30卷第4期封面和封面

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.21

引用次数: 0

PAN volume 30 issue 4 Cover and Back matter PAN第30卷第4期封面和封底

IF 5.4 2区社会学