Political Analysis最新文献_第5页

Topic Classification for Political Texts with Pretrained Language Models 基于预训练语言模型的政治文本主题分类

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-03-08 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2023.3

Yu Wang

引用次数: 0

Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Conjoint Analysis 联合分析中的多重假设检验

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-26 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.30

Guoer Liu, Y. Shiraito

{"title":"Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Conjoint Analysis","authors":"Guoer Liu, Y. Shiraito","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.30","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Conjoint analysis is widely used for estimating the effects of a large number of treatments on multidimensional decision-making. However, it is this substantive advantage that leads to a statistically undesirable property, multiple hypothesis testing. Existing applications of conjoint analysis except for a few do not correct for the number of hypotheses to be tested, and empirical guidance on the choice of multiple testing correction methods has not been provided. This paper first shows that even when none of the treatments has any effect, the standard analysis pipeline produces at least one statistically significant estimate of average marginal component effects in more than 90% of experimental trials. Then, we conduct a simulation study to compare three well-known methods for multiple testing correction, the Bonferroni correction, the Benjamini–Hochberg procedure, and the adaptive shrinkage (Ash). All three methods are more accurate in recovering the truth than the conventional analysis without correction. Moreover, the Ash method outperforms in avoiding false negatives, while reducing false positives similarly to the other methods. Finally, we show how conclusions drawn from empirical analysis may differ with and without correction by reanalyzing applications on public attitudes toward immigration and partner countries of trade agreements.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43757773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Detecting and Correcting for Separation in Strategic Choice Models 策略选择模型中分离的检测与校正

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-26 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.36

Casey Crisman-Cox, O. Gasparyan, Curtis S. Signorino

引用次数: 1

Cross-Lingual Classification of Political Texts Using Multilingual Sentence Embeddings 基于多语言句子嵌入的政治文本跨语言分类

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-26 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.29

Hauke Licht

{"title":"Cross-Lingual Classification of Political Texts Using Multilingual Sentence Embeddings","authors":"Hauke Licht","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.29","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Established approaches to analyze multilingual text corpora require either a duplication of analysts’ efforts or high-quality machine translation (MT). In this paper, I argue that multilingual sentence embedding (MSE) is an attractive alternative approach to language-independent text representation. To support this argument, I evaluate MSE for cross-lingual supervised text classification. Specifically, I assess how reliably MSE-based classifiers detect manifesto sentences’ topics and positions compared to classifiers trained using bag-of-words representations of machine-translated texts, and how this depends on the amount of training data. These analyses show that when training data are relatively scarce (e.g., 20K or less-labeled sentences), MSE-based classifiers can be more reliable and are at least no less reliable than their MT-based counterparts. Furthermore, I examine how reliable MSE-based classifiers label sentences written in languages not in the training data, focusing on the task of discriminating sentences that discuss the issue of immigration from those that do not. This analysis shows that compared to the within-language classification benchmark, such “cross-lingual transfer” tends to result in fewer reliability losses when relying on the MSE instead of the MT approach. This study thus presents an important addition to the cross-lingual text analysis toolkit.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47594409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

The Ideologies of Organized Interests and Amicus Curiae Briefs: Large-Scale, Social Network Imputation of Ideal Points 有组织利益的意识形态与法庭之友简报：理想点的大规模、社会网络归因

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-26 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.34

Sahar Abi-Hassan, J. Box-Steffensmeier, Dino P. Christenson, A. Kaufman, Brian Libgober

引用次数: 0

When Correlation Is Not Enough: Validating Populism Scores from Supervised Machine-Learning Models 当相关性不够时:从监督机器学习模型验证民粹主义得分

2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.32

Michael Jankowski, Robert A. Huber

引用次数: 5

Contagion, Confounding, and Causality: Confronting the Three C’s of Observational Political Networks Research 传染、困惑与因果：直面观察政治网络研究的三个C

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.35

Medha Uppala, B. Desmarais

{"title":"Contagion, Confounding, and Causality: Confronting the Three C’s of Observational Political Networks Research","authors":"Medha Uppala, B. Desmarais","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.35","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Contagion across various types of connections is a central process in the study of many political phenomena (e.g., democratization, civil conflict, and voter turnout). Over the last decade, the methodological literature addressing the challenges in causally identifying contagion in networks has exploded. In one of the foundational works in this literature, Shalizi and Thomas (2011, Sociological Methods and Research 40, 211–239.) propose a permutation test for contagion in longitudinal network data that is not confounded by selection (e.g., homophily). We illustrate the properties of this test via simulation. We assess its statistical power under various conditions of the data, including the nature of the contagion, the structure of the network through which contagion occurs, and the number of time periods included in the data. We then apply this test to an example domain that is commonly considered in the context of observational research on contagion—the international spread of democracy. We find evidence of international contagion of democracy. We conclude with a discussion of the practical applicability of the Shalizi and Thomas test to the study of contagion in political networks.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49300066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ends Against the Middle: Measuring Latent Traits when Opposites Respond the Same Way for Antithetical Reasons 两端对中：当对手出于对立原因以相同方式回应时，测量潜在特征

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.33

JBrandon Duck-Mayr, J. Montgomery

引用次数: 9

Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift”: Why Does It Work, and When Can It Be Expected to Work Well? 使用“Logit Shift”重新校准预测概率：为什么它有效，何时可以预期它有效？

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.31

Evan T. R. Rosenman, Cory McCartan, Santiago Olivella

{"title":"Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift”: Why Does It Work, and When Can It Be Expected to Work Well?","authors":"Evan T. R. Rosenman, Cory McCartan, Santiago Olivella","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.31","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting vote probabilities at the individual level in U.S. elections can be adjusted so that their aggregation matches the observed vote totals in each county, thus producing better-calibrated predictions. In this research note, we provide theoretical grounding for one of the most commonly used recalibration strategies, known colloquially as the “logit shift.” Typically cast as a heuristic adjustment strategy (whereby a constant correction on the logit scale is found, such that aggregated predictions match target totals), we show that the logit shift offers a fast and accurate approximation to a principled, but computationally impractical adjustment strategy: computing the posterior prediction probabilities, conditional on the observed totals. After deriving analytical bounds on the quality of the approximation, we illustrate its accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations. We also discuss scenarios in which the logit shift is less effective at recalibrating predictions: when the target totals are defined only for highly heterogeneous populations, and when the original predictions correctly capture the mean of true individual probabilities, but fail to capture the shape of their distribution.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49567363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Acquiescence Bias Inflates Estimates of Conspiratorial Beliefs and Political Misperceptions 默许偏见夸大了对阴谋信仰和政治误解的估计

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.28

Seth J. Hill, Margaret E. Roberts

引用次数: 8