Political Analysis最新文献_第5页

PAN volume 31 issue 1 Cover and Back matter PAN第31卷第1期封面和封底

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.38

引用次数: 0

Bridging the Grade Gap: Reducing Assessment Bias in a Multi-Grader Class 缩小成绩差距：减少多年级学生的评估偏差

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.27

Sean Kates, Tine Paulsen, Sidak Yntiso, Joshua A. Tucker

引用次数: 1

Automated Coding of Political Campaign Advertisement Videos: An Empirical Validation Study 政治竞选广告视频的自动编码:实证验证研究

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.26

Alexander Tarr, June Hwang, Kosuke Imai

引用次数: 6

The Consequences of Model Misspecification for the Estimation of Nonlinear Interaction Effects 非线性相互作用效应估计中模型不精确的后果

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.25

Janina Beiser-McGrath, Liam F. Beiser-McGrath

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引用次数: 1

Measuring Swing Voters with a Supervised Machine Learning Ensemble 用监督机器学习集成测量摇摆选民

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.24

Christopher Hare, Mikayla Kutsuris

{"title":"Measuring Swing Voters with a Supervised Machine Learning Ensemble","authors":"Christopher Hare, Mikayla Kutsuris","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.24","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Theory has long suggested that swing voting is a response to cross-pressures arising from a mix of individual attributes and contextual factors. Unfortunately, existing regression-based approaches are ill-suited to explore the complex combinations of demographic, policy, and political factors that produce swing voters in American elections. This gap between theory and practice motivates our use of an ensemble of supervised machine learning methods to predict swing voters in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. The results from the learning ensemble substantiate the existence of swing voters in contemporary American elections. Specifically, we demonstrate that the learning ensemble produces well-calibrated and externally valid predictions of swing voter propensity in later elections and for related behaviors such as split-ticket voting. Although interpreting black-box models is more challenging, they can nonetheless provide meaningful substantive insights meriting further exploration. Here, we use flexible model-agnostic tools to perturb the ensemble and demonstrate that cross-pressures (particularly those involving ideological and policy-related considerations) are essential to accurately predict swing voters.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"537 - 553"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46221099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Change-Point Detection and Regularization in Time Series Cross-Sectional Data Analysis 时间序列截面数据分析中的变点检测与正则化

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.23

J. Park, S. Yamauchi

引用次数: 0

PAN volume 30 issue 4 Cover and Front matter PAN第30卷第4期封面和封面

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.21

引用次数: 0

PAN volume 30 issue 4 Cover and Back matter PAN第30卷第4期封面和封底

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-09 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.22

引用次数: 0

Ordered Beta Regression: A Parsimonious, Well-Fitting Model for Continuous Data with Lower and Upper Bounds 有序贝塔回归：一个具有上下限连续数据的简洁、拟合良好的模型

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.20

R. Kubinec

引用次数: 8

Using Conjoint Experiments to Analyze Election Outcomes: The Essential Role of the Average Marginal Component Effect 联合实验分析选举结果:平均边际成分效应的重要作用

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.16

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, D. Hopkins, Teppei Yamamoto

{"title":"Using Conjoint Experiments to Analyze Election Outcomes: The Essential Role of the Average Marginal Component Effect","authors":"Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, D. Hopkins, Teppei Yamamoto","doi":"10.1017/pan.2022.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2022.16","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Political scientists have increasingly deployed conjoint survey experiments to understand multidimensional choices in various settings. In this paper, we show that the average marginal component effect (AMCE) constitutes an aggregation of individual-level preferences that is meaningful both theoretically and empirically. First, extending previous results to allow for arbitrary randomization distributions, we show how the AMCE represents a summary of voters’ multidimensional preferences that combines directionality and intensity according to a probabilistic generalization of the Borda rule. We demonstrate why incorporating both the directionality and intensity of multi-attribute preferences is essential for analyzing real-world elections, in which ceteris paribus comparisons almost never occur. Second, and in further empirical support of this point, we show how this aggregation translates directly into a primary quantity of interest to election scholars: the effect of a change in an attribute on a candidate’s or party’s expected vote share. These properties hold irrespective of the heterogeneity, strength, or interactivity of voters’ preferences and regardless of how votes are aggregated into seats. Finally, we propose, formalize, and evaluate the feasibility of using conjoint data to estimate alternative quantities of interest to electoral studies, including the effect of an attribute on the probability of winning.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"500 - 518"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44645179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 19