Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

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Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122
Yu-Lun Chen , Yi-Hua Li , Wan-Shin Mo , J. Jimmy Yang
{"title":"Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination","authors":"Yu-Lun Chen ,&nbsp;Yi-Hua Li ,&nbsp;Wan-Shin Mo ,&nbsp;J. Jimmy Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) for G10 currencies. We find that a higher number of COVID-19 infection cases and a higher stringency index, which captures the strictness of policies and government interventions, are associated with larger CIP deviations. However, this relation disappears after COVID-19 vaccines became available. This finding indicates that vaccines not only represent a significant advancement in combating the coronavirus but also contribute to improving efficiency in the FX market by mitigating uncertainty and stabilizing economic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the rise of the U.S. dollar during the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to persistent deviations from CIP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102122"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Governmental venture capital and investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese government guidance funds
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120
Xinfei Huang , Yue Zhang , Zhe Zong
{"title":"Governmental venture capital and investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese government guidance funds","authors":"Xinfei Huang ,&nbsp;Yue Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhe Zong","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the role of government-backed venture capital (GVC) in influencing companies’ operating performance has been well-documented, its potential impact on the financial market remains less explored. This paper aims to fill this gap in the context of China’s venture capital market. Since 2002, the Chinese government has launched a type of policy VC fund—government guidance funds (GGFs)—to stimulate innovation, industrial transformation, and local economic growth. Using a sample of 2,860 IPO companies from 2010 to 2021, we show that GGF-backed IPOs exhibited higher initial returns than both non-VC-backed and non-GGF VC-backed IPOs. A decomposition of the initial returns reveals that this effect was driven by market overvaluation rather than IPO price discounts. Consistent with investor sentiment and signaling theory, our results suggest that investors held optimistic views towards GGF-backed companies. However, when assessing post-IPO operating and innovation performance, GGF-backed companies did not outperform their counterparts. Overall, this paper highlights the signaling effects of GGFs in the financial market and provides important policy implications for the design of GVC programs worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102120"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign debt cost and economic complexity
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102121
Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez , Jorge M. Uribe , Oscar M. Valencia
{"title":"Sovereign debt cost and economic complexity","authors":"Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Jorge M. Uribe ,&nbsp;Oscar M. Valencia","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how a country’s economic complexity impacts its sovereign yield spread relative to the U.S. A one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index reduces the 10-year yield spread by about 61 basis points, though this effect is non-significant for maturities under three years, affecting the spread curve slope. Using causal machine learning and predictive models, economic complexity is a top predictor alongside inflation and institutional factors. The paper explores mechanisms through which economic complexity reduces sovereign risk, emphasizing its role in productivity, output, income stability, and the likelihood of fiscal crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102121"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Other comprehensive income volatility and bank risk
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102115
Yang Su , Junrui Zhang , Hong Zhao , Mingming Zhou
{"title":"Other comprehensive income volatility and bank risk","authors":"Yang Su ,&nbsp;Junrui Zhang ,&nbsp;Hong Zhao ,&nbsp;Mingming Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we explore how banks manage risk in response to Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) volatility. We find that banks with high OCI volatility decrease perceived risk while increasing their contribution to systemic risk. As strategies in response to OCI volatility, banks reduce available-for-sale (AFS) holdings and loans, and expand the off-balance-sheet (OBS) entrusted loans and wealth management products. The effects on systemic risk and OBS activities are more pronounced under tight monetary policy but less so under macroprudential supervision. These results indicate that OCI captures the attention of banks in their risk management, yet their response to OCI volatility intensifies systemic fragility. The enforcement of OCI disclosure should be complemented by effective macroprudential supervision to ensure financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102115"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ex ante bond returns and time-varying monotonicity
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102114
Hamid Yahyaei , Abhay Singh, Tom Smith
{"title":"Ex ante bond returns and time-varying monotonicity","authors":"Hamid Yahyaei ,&nbsp;Abhay Singh,&nbsp;Tom Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the dynamics of U.S. Treasury term premia by applying and extending the nonparametric framework of Boudoukh, Richardson, Smith, and Whitelaw (1999) into a time-varying test of monotonicity. The framework exploits conditioning variables with economic relevance to the business cycle, which a priori predict non-monotonic Treasury returns to permit a formal test of the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis (LPH). Conditioning ex ante returns against inversion in the yield curve, restrictive monetary policy rates, and negative investor sentiment reveals a non-monotonic term premium on Treasury bills. In contrast, term premia on portfolios comprising longer-term Treasury notes are primarily monotonic but exhibit non-monotonicity that coincides with unexpected macroeconomic shocks. When interest rates reach the zero lower bound, term premia are universally monotonic, demonstrating the Federal Reserve’s ability to normalise the yield curve. Ultimately, we illustrate the importance of accounting for the time-varying behaviour of the term premium, especially as changes in the business cycle influence the term structure of interest rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102114"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extractive institutions and banks’ implicit subsidies
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102119
Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos , Rafael Schiozer
{"title":"Extractive institutions and banks’ implicit subsidies","authors":"Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos ,&nbsp;Rafael Schiozer","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate whether banks located in countries with extractive institutions benefit from larger implicit subsidies, using a sample of banks from 35 countries. We conjecture that the banking systems in countries with extractive institutions have the political and economic powers to lead governments to absorb banks’ distress risk and use public resources to guarantee banks’ survival in distressed events. This creates <em>ex-ante</em> implicit subsidies that reduce banks’ cost of equity financing in these countries. To reinforce the causal evidence, we explore variations in external democratic capital as an instrument for institutional exploitation. Our results indicate that the less extractive the institutional environment, the lower the banks’ implicit subsidies. In countries with less extractive institutions, regulatory instruments are more likely to be adopted, such as bail-in rules and tighter bank resolution frameworks. These policies reduce regulators’ discretion to use public resources to save distressed banks when these interventions are welfare decreasing, reducing <em>ex-ante</em> implicit subsidies enjoyed by the financial sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102119"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banking regulation and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from regulatory penalties in China
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102112
Yuanbiao Huang , Jinlei Li
{"title":"Banking regulation and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from regulatory penalties in China","authors":"Yuanbiao Huang ,&nbsp;Jinlei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing data from administrative penalty announcements by the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), we analyze the impact of banking regulatory penalties on corporate R&amp;D investment. Our findings indicate that stringent regulatory penalties crowd out corporate R&amp;D investment by reducing the availability of loans and increasing borrowing costs, with a particularly pronounced effect of disciplinary actions and disqualifications, economic penalties, and loan-related penalties. Further analysis reveals that the crowding-out effect is more pronounced among firms with smaller asset sizes and lower internal financing. However, bank competition and international expansion significantly mitigate this crowding-out effect. Additionally, we find that regulatory penalties only crowd out R&amp;D investment within the year following the penalty, with no direct evidence indicating a reduction in patent applications. Our study highlights that rigorous banking regulatory penalties may have a short-term adverse impact on corporate R&amp;D investment, suggesting that regulatory authorities should balance the stability of the financial system with the development of the real economy when enforcing punitive actions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102112"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sudden stops of capital inflows, macroprudential policies, and bank systemic risk: An international investigation
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102111
Yu Wang , Yiming Lu , Gaoya Song
{"title":"Sudden stops of capital inflows, macroprudential policies, and bank systemic risk: An international investigation","authors":"Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Yiming Lu ,&nbsp;Gaoya Song","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from 1724 listed banks across 43 nations, we investigate the effect of sudden stops of capital inflows on bank systemic risk. Empirical evidence demonstrates a significant increase in bank systemic risk as a result of sudden stops. In terms of impact mechanisms, we find that sudden stops heighten bank asset risk and contribute to the collapse of asset price bubbles. Furthermore, we examine whether the implementation of macroprudential policies can alleviate the effects of sudden stops on financial stability. Our findings demonstrate that macroprudential policies concerning capital, credit, and liquidity can effectively alleviate the heightened systemic risk associated with sudden stops. The regression results still hold after a series of robustness tests. Our research connects sudden stops of capital inflows with bank systemic risk and provides a policy reference for the regulatory agencies aiming to identify and prevent externally imported financial risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102111"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global convergence of financial reporting and resilience to fiscal spillover shocks
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102110
Rong (Irene) Zhong
{"title":"Global convergence of financial reporting and resilience to fiscal spillover shocks","authors":"Rong (Irene) Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In today’s interconnected global economy, economic shocks in one country often propagate across borders, causing significant fluctuations worldwide. Constructing a novel country-to-country multiplex network framework, this study demonstrates that financial reporting convergence enhances a country’s resilience to spillover shocks, resulting in a 16.12% and 23.30% decrease in the sensitivity of employment and value-added to shock-induced fluctuations. This resilience effect arises from network diversification, enabling countries to allocate resources more strategically across a broader range of foreign partners. Our findings are robust to multiple identification strategies. Overall, our study underscores the importance of global financial reporting convergence in reducing network risk and strengthening countries’ economic stability in the face of external shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102110"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank profitability and central bank digital currency
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102105
Mario Bellia, Ludovic Calès
{"title":"Bank profitability and central bank digital currency","authors":"Mario Bellia,&nbsp;Ludovic Calès","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyses the potential effect of a European central bank digital currency (CBDC) on banks’ profitability. We use a large sample of euro area banks that spans the period from 2007 to 2021 to assess the sensitivity of banks’ profits to the deposits. Using quantile regressions, we estimate the conditional profit distribution of a representative bank. We then introduce a shock on the amount of deposits that would be replaced by the CBDC. Our results show that, for a large take-up of CBDC, there might be substantial challenges for the profitability of banks, especially for large banks and for small banks that mostly rely on deposits as a source of funding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102105"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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