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Journal of Policy Analysis and Management最新文献

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IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22570
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.22570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22570","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 2","pages":"650"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140537504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are algorithms biased in education? Exploring racial bias in predicting community college student success 教育中的算法是否存在偏见？探索社区大学学生成功预测中的种族偏见
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22569
Kelli A. Bird, Benjamin L. Castleman, Yifeng Song
{"title":"Are algorithms biased in education? Exploring racial bias in predicting community college student success","authors":"Kelli A. Bird, Benjamin L. Castleman, Yifeng Song","doi":"10.1002/pam.22569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22569","url":null,"abstract":"Predictive analytics are increasingly pervasive in higher education. However, algorithmic bias has the potential to reinforce racial inequities in postsecondary success. We provide a comprehensive and translational investigation of algorithmic bias in two separate prediction models—one predicting course completion, the second predicting degree completion. We show that if either model were used to target additional supports for “at-risk” students, then the algorithmic bias would lead to fewer marginal Black students receiving these resources. We also find the magnitude of algorithmic bias varies within the distribution of predicted success. With the degree completion model, the amount of bias is over 5 times higher when we define at-risk using the bottom <i>decile</i> than when we focus on students in the bottom <i>half</i> of predicted scores; in the course completion model, the reverse is true. These divergent patterns emphasize the contextual nature of algorithmic bias and attempts to mitigate it. Our results moreover suggest that algorithmic bias is due in part to currently-available administrative data being relatively less useful at predicting Black student success, particularly for new students; this suggests that additional data collection efforts have the potential to mitigate bias.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139904303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Waivers for the public service loan forgiveness program: Who could benefit from take-up? 公共服务贷款豁免计划：谁能从接受计划中受益？
IF 2.3 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22566
Diego A. Briones, Nathaniel Ruby, Sarah Turner
{"title":"Waivers for the public service loan forgiveness program: Who could benefit from take-up?","authors":"Diego A. Briones,&nbsp;Nathaniel Ruby,&nbsp;Sarah Turner","doi":"10.1002/pam.22566","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.22566","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For workers employed in the public and nonprofit sectors, the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program offers the potential for full forgiveness of federal student loans for those with 10 years of full-time work experience. A year-long waiver issued by the Department of Education in 2021 to address administrative problems in program access provided a new path to PSLF relief for many borrowers. We explore the overall impact and distributional implications of potential full participation in loan forgiveness enabled by the PSLF waiver program using the 2018 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our estimates identify more than $100 billion in loan forgiveness available to as many as 3.45 million borrowers through the PSLF waiver program. Potential beneficiaries of this initiative are disproportionately employed in occupations like teaching and health care. Full take-up of the PSLF waiver would lead to a narrowing of the racial gap in student debt burden. However, the distributional impact of the PSLF waiver depends critically on the take-up rate and there is some evidence that those borrowers with relatively high income or advanced degrees have been most likely to access benefits.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 4","pages":"1004-1033"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139904294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Minimum quality regulations and the demand for childcare labor 最低质量规定和对托儿所劳动力的需求
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22568
Umair Ali, Chris M. Herbst, Christos A. Makridis
{"title":"Minimum quality regulations and the demand for childcare labor","authors":"Umair Ali,&nbsp;Chris M. Herbst,&nbsp;Christos A. Makridis","doi":"10.1002/pam.22568","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.22568","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Minimum quality regulations are often justified in the childcare market because of the presence of information frictions between parents and providers. However, regulations can also have unintended consequences for the quantity and quality of services provided. In this paper, we merge new data on states’ childcare regulations for maximum classroom group sizes and child-to-staff ratios with the universe of online job postings to study the impact of regulations on the demand for and characteristics of childcare labor. Our identification strategy exploits the unprecedented variation in regulatory reform during the COVID-19 pandemic, relying on changes both within states over time and across children's age groups. We find evidence that these regulations reduce the number of childcare job postings and encourage providers to substitute away from higher-skilled postings, thereby increasing the number of positions that are out-of-compliance with states’ teacher education requirements. In sum, the results imply that childcare regulations may reduce the demand for childcare labor, while simultaneously altering the composition of the workforce.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 3","pages":"660-695"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140473163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Self-service bans and gasoline prices: The effect of allowing consumers to pump their own gas 自助服务禁令与汽油价格：允许消费者自己加油的效果
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22564
Vitor Melo
{"title":"Self-service bans and gasoline prices: The effect of allowing consumers to pump their own gas","authors":"Vitor Melo","doi":"10.1002/pam.22564","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.22564","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most of the world's population lives in countries that ban the self-service sale of gasoline. Causal effects of this regulation can hardly be assessed in these countries due to a lack of policy changes, but a recent quasi-experiment in the state of Oregon allows us to analyze the impact of the ban. From 1992 to 2017, the state of Oregon was one of two U.S. states that banned self-service at gasoline stations. Oregon adjusted regulations at the start of 2018 to allow self-service at gasoline stations in counties with populations below 40,000 individuals. I examine the repeal of this self-service ban and its effects on gasoline prices. I apply a difference-in-differences design using high frequency data of gasoline prices and find that repealing the self-service ban reduced gasoline prices by 4.4 cents per gallon in affected Oregon counties. This effect represents approximately $90 in expected annual savings for a household with three licensed drivers.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 3","pages":"804-817"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139436892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of right-to-work laws on long hours and work schedules 工作权法对长时间工作和工作时间安排的影响
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22562
Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella, Jian Qi Tan
{"title":"The impact of right-to-work laws on long hours and work schedules","authors":"Rania Gihleb,&nbsp;Osea Giuntella,&nbsp;Jian Qi Tan","doi":"10.1002/pam.22562","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.22562","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Unions play a crucial role in determining wages and employment outcomes. However, union bargaining power may also have important effects on non-pecuniary working conditions. We study the effects of right-to-work laws, which removed agency shop protection and weakened union powers on long hours and non-standard work schedules that may adversely affect workers’ health and safety. We exploit variation in the timing of enactment across U.S. states and compare workers in bordering counties across adopting states and states that did not adopt the laws yet. Using the stacked approach to difference-in-differences estimates proposed by Cengiz et al. (2019), we find evidence that right-to-work laws increased the share of workers working long hours by 6%, while there is little evidence of an impact on hourly wages. The effects on long hours are larger in more unionized sectors (i.e., construction, manufacturing, and transportation). While the likelihood of working non-standard hours increases for particular sectors (education and public administration), there is no evidence of a significant increase in the overall sample.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 3","pages":"696-713"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139436904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information campaigns and public perceptions of structural reforms: Evidence from a survey experiment on gasoline subsidy reform in Nigeria 宣传活动与公众对结构性改革的看法：尼日利亚汽油补贴改革调查实验的证据
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22561
Joonseok Yang, Tom Moerenhout
{"title":"Information campaigns and public perceptions of structural reforms: Evidence from a survey experiment on gasoline subsidy reform in Nigeria","authors":"Joonseok Yang,&nbsp;Tom Moerenhout","doi":"10.1002/pam.22561","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.22561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Governments often reform financial policies, such as industrial subsidies taxes and currency exchange rates, during times of fiscal distress. Existing studies suggest that information campaigns can improve popular support for policy reforms that promise longer term macroeconomic growth but come with short-term financial costs to people's livelihoods. This article assesses the effects of information campaigns on the acceptance of fossil fuel subsidy reforms in Nigeria, a type of fiscal reform that many developing countries may adopt in the coming years. A randomized survey experiment imbedded in a nationally representative survey of Nigerian households investigates whether information interventions lead Nigerians to change their opinion on fossil fuel subsidy reforms. We find that merely providing factual information does not affect whether or not people support fossil fuel subsidy reforms. Moreover, we find that factual information helps supporters articulate their preferences and weakens the propensity of opponents to use wrongful information to justify their position.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 2","pages":"509-529"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139534946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Selective exercise of discretion in disability insurance awards 在伤残保险赔偿中选择性行使酌处权
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2023-12-29 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22560
Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Pierre Koning, Owen O'Donnell, Carlos Riumalló-Herl
{"title":"Selective exercise of discretion in disability insurance awards","authors":"Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Pierre Koning, Owen O'Donnell, Carlos Riumalló-Herl","doi":"10.1002/pam.22560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22560","url":null,"abstract":"Variation in assessor stringency in awarding benefits leaves applicants exposed to uninsured risk that could be systematic if discretion were exercised selectively. Using administrative data on disability insurance (DI) applications in the Netherlands, we show that even in one of the most rule-based DI programs, there is still between assessor variation in awards, and there is systematic variation in assessment across applicants. Discretion is exercised in favor of lower-wage applicants relatively more than it is used to benefit higher-wage applicants. This is evident indirectly from downward discontinuities in pre-disability wages just above benefit entitlement thresholds and directly from wage-related differences in the extent to which assessors intervene in the semi-automated calculation of earnings capacity. While lower-wage applicants benefit on average, they are exposed to greater risk from between assessor variation in the exercise of discretion. Rule-based disability evaluation can reduce, but not eliminate, between-applicant variation in awards.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139061562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22543
Erdal Tekin Editor
{"title":"","authors":"Erdal Tekin Editor","doi":"10.1002/pam.22543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22543","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 1","pages":"5-9"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138713699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Drinking water contaminant concentrations and birth outcomes 饮用水污染物浓度与出生结果
IF 3.8 3区 管理学
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22558
Richard W. DiSalvo, Elaine L. Hill
{"title":"Drinking water contaminant concentrations and birth outcomes","authors":"Richard W. DiSalvo,&nbsp;Elaine L. Hill","doi":"10.1002/pam.22558","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.22558","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous research in the U.S. has found negative health effects of contamination when it triggers regulatory violations. An important question is whether levels of contamination that do not trigger a health-based violation impact health. We study the impact of drinking water contamination in community water systems on birth outcomes using drinking water sampling results data in Pennsylvania. We focus on the effects of water contamination for births not exposed to regulatory violations. Our most rigorous specification employs mother fixed effects and finds changing from the 10th to the 90th percentile of water contamination (among births not exposed to regulatory violations) increases low birth weight by 12% and preterm birth by 17%.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 2","pages":"368-399"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138658184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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