Journal of Policy Analysis and Management最新文献_第4页

One threshold doesn't fit all: Tailoring machine learning predictions of consumer default for lower‐income areas 一个阈值并不适合所有人：为低收入地区定制消费者违约的机器学习预测

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22662

Vitaly Meursault, Daniel Moulton, Larry Santucci, Nathan Schor

{"title":"One threshold doesn't fit all: Tailoring machine learning predictions of consumer default for lower‐income areas","authors":"Vitaly Meursault, Daniel Moulton, Larry Santucci, Nathan Schor","doi":"10.1002/pam.22662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22662","url":null,"abstract":"Improving fairness across policy domains often comes at a cost. However, as machine learning (ML) advances lead to more accurate predictive models in fields like lending, education, healthcare, and criminal justice, policymakers may find themselves better positioned to implement effective fairness measures. Using credit bureau data and ML, we show that setting different lending thresholds for low‐ and moderate‐income (LMI) neighborhoods relative to non‐LMI neighborhoods can equalize the rate at which equally creditworthy borrowers receive credit. ML models alone better identify creditworthy individuals in all groups but remain more accurate for the majority group. A policy that equalizes access via separate thresholds imposes a cost on lenders, but this cost is outweighed by the substantial gains from ML. This approach aligns with the motivation behind existing laws such as the Community Reinvestment Act, which encourages lenders to meet the credit needs of underserved communities. Targeted Special Purpose Credit Programs could provide the opportunity to prototype and test these ideas in the field.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social Infrastructure and Left-Behind Places by John Tomaney, Maeve Blackman, Lucy Natarajan, Dimitrios Panayotopoulos-Tsiros, Florence Sutcliffe-Braithwaite, and Myfanwy Taylor. Taylor & Francis, 2024, 108 pages. $48.99 (paperback). ISBN 978-1032710051. 社会基础设施和遗留的地方由JohnTomaney， MaeveBlackman, LucyNatarajan, DimitriosPanayotopoulos‐Tsiros， FlorenceSutcliffe‐Braithwaite和MyfanwyTaylor。泰勒和弗朗西斯出版社，2024,108页。48.99美元(平装)。ISBN 978还是1032710051。

IF 2.3 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22666

Ihsan Manshur Putra, Rahayu Lestari, Fauziah Istiqomah Abdunnafi

引用次数: 0

The effect of inter-municipal cooperation on social assistance programs: Evidence from housing allowances in England 城市间合作对社会救助计划的影响：来自英国住房补贴的证据

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22664

Thomas Elston, Germà Bel, Han Wang

{"title":"The effect of inter-municipal cooperation on social assistance programs: Evidence from housing allowances in England","authors":"Thomas Elston, Germà Bel, Han Wang","doi":"10.1002/pam.22664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22664","url":null,"abstract":"Decentralized implementation of means-tested social assistance programs requires significant organizational capacity among local governments. For other types of local public service, like refuse collection and utilities provision, inter-municipal cooperation has proven capable of reducing the cost of subnational policy implementation, especially for smaller municipalities. But few impact evaluations test whether the same benefits can be achieved for less capital-intensive and more co-produced services, like social assistance. Moreover, most evaluations focus on production costs alone, despite the potential trade-off with service quality. We analyze panel data describing both the cost and quality of housing allowance administration for 314 local authorities in England between 2009 and 2019, during which time 80 switched from autonomous services to inter-municipal cooperation. Using coarsened exact matching and stacked difference-in-differences, we find no evidence of short-term savings after cooperation, and only weak indications thereafter. We also observe declining processing speeds, increased maladministration, and signs of reduced payment accuracy, though mostly these are temporary effects. Altogether, these results suggest that, in this setting, inter-municipal cooperation may be unsuited to labor-intensive public services; that short- and long-term effects can differ; and that, even in the absence of a profit motive, quality shading remains a risk in cooperation reforms.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Not a border crisis, but a labor market crisis: The often overlooked “pull” factor of U.S. border crossings 不是边境危机，而是劳动力市场危机：这是经常被忽视的美国边境过境的“拉动”因素

IF 2.3 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22665

Dany Bahar

引用次数: 0

Long-term impacts on education of a cash transfer during early life 早期现金转移对教育的长期影响

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22663

Juanita Bloomfield, José María Cabrera

引用次数: 0

Occupational licensing and income inequality in the states 各州的职业许可与收入不平等

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22660

Wendy Chen, William W. Franko, Robert J. McGrath

{"title":"Occupational licensing and income inequality in the states","authors":"Wendy Chen, William W. Franko, Robert J. McGrath","doi":"10.1002/pam.22660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22660","url":null,"abstract":"The decades-long rise of economic inequality in the U.S. has led to a growing body of literature examining the role of policy in shaping income differences. We examine one such policy: occupational licensing regulations. Licensing can restrict employment and reduce market competition, which can then inflate wages for those in licensed professions. Existing research demonstrates that occupational licensure does increase wages in specific industries, leading some scholars to argue that licensing makes income inequality worse. We add nuance by arguing that the effect of licensing on inequality is dependent on which occupation classes experience the largest wage premiums. Using a comprehensive over-time database of state licensing regulations, we first demonstrate that medium- and low-wage jobs garner larger wage premiums than high-wage occupations. Second, consistent with this result we then show that the occupational licensing regulations have the overall effect of reducing state income inequality. This research contributes to our understanding of the causes of growing inequality and how public policy can shape economic disparities through sometimes unintended and indirect ways.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142713020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of alimony on married women's labor supply and fertility: Evidence from state-level reforms 赡养费对已婚妇女劳动力供给和生育率的影响：来自州一级改革的证据

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22661

Daniel Fernández-Kranz, Jennifer Roff

{"title":"The effect of alimony on married women's labor supply and fertility: Evidence from state-level reforms","authors":"Daniel Fernández-Kranz, Jennifer Roff","doi":"10.1002/pam.22661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22661","url":null,"abstract":"Reforms that reduce spousal support after divorce are generally thought to reduce the bargaining power of alimony recipients as well as their incentives to participate in the traditional model of household specialization. Using the U.S. Time Use Survey and exploiting a series of recent reforms in several U.S. states that reduced the rights of eligible spouses, we find that wives surprised by the reforms reacted by increasing their labor supply, but the adjustment mechanism varied by educational group. While college educated wives' labor supply increased at the expense of time spent on housework and childcare, wives with less than a college degree sacrificed personal care and leisure time. Effects for men are generally smaller and not statistically significant. We also find a reduction in the rate of new births following the reforms, with the effect being much more pronounced in the case of women with a university education, suggesting that part of the difference in time use may be attributable to differences in preferences and the cost of children by educational levels. Since children are a marital public good, our results imply a decrease in marriage-specific investment. The estimated effects are robust to various sensitivity tests and are greater in couples with a high-income differential and therefore more exposed to changes in alimony laws.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Credible climate policy must account for political and economic realities 可信的气候政策必须考虑政治和经济现实

IF 2.3 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22654

Elizabeth Pancotti, Todd N. Tucker

引用次数: 0

Tariffs are a necessary backstop of the clean energy transition 关税是清洁能源转型的必要后盾

IF 2.3 3区管理学

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22653

Elizabeth Pancotti, Todd Tucker

引用次数: 0

Tariffs on clean-energy technology 清洁能源技术关税