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The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes 封锁政策对健康和宏观经济结果的因果影响
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210367
Jonas E Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, J. Rubio-Ramirez, Minchul Shin
{"title":"The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes","authors":"Jonas E Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, J. Rubio-Ramirez, Minchul Shin","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210367","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that additional government-mandated mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at a very small cost in terms of GDP. (JEL E23, H51, I12, I15, I18)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"133 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78460919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development 工作中的人力资本积累:对世界的估计及其对发展的影响
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210002
Remi Jedwab, Paul Romer, Asif M. Islam, Roberto Samaniego
{"title":"Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development","authors":"Remi Jedwab, Paul Romer, Asif M. Islam, Roberto Samaniego","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210002","url":null,"abstract":"We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumulate twice as much human capital at work as those in developing countries; (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience and education to human capital accumulation and economic development might be equally important; and (iv) employ panel regressions to investigate how changes in the returns over time correlate with several factors such as economic recessions, transitions, and human capital stocks. (JEL D12, I25, I26, J24, J31, O15)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136184903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the United States 衡量墨西哥和美国的生活成本
IF 6 1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200486
David Argente, Chang-tai Hsieh, Munseob Lee
{"title":"Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the United States","authors":"David Argente, Chang-tai Hsieh, Munseob Lee","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200486","url":null,"abstract":"We use a dataset with prices and spending on consumer packaged goods matched at the bar code level across the United States and Mexico to measure the price index in Mexico relative to the United States. Mexican prices relative to the United States are 23 percent lower compared to the International Comparisons Project’s (ICP) price index. We decompose the 23 percent gap into the biases from imputation, sampling, quality, and variety. Quality bias increases Mexican prices by 48 percent. Imputation, sampling, and variety bias lowers Mexican prices by 11 percent, 13 percent, and 33 percent, respectively. (JEL C43, E31, I31, O11, O12)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83150832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing 统一定价的宏观经济含义
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210172
Diego Daruich, Julian Kozlowski
{"title":"Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing","authors":"Diego Daruich, Julian Kozlowski","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210172","url":null,"abstract":"We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions—i.e., prices almost do not vary within the stores of a chain. In line with uniform pricing, prices in stores of chains operating in one region react to changes in regional employment while prices in multiregion chains do not. Using a quantitative regional model with multiregion firms and uniform pricing, we find a one-half smaller elasticity of prices to a regional than an aggregate shock. This result highlights that some caution may be necessary when using regional shocks to estimate aggregate elasticities. (JEL D22, L11, L81, O14, O18, R32)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136260259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes 欧洲碳税的宏观经济影响
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210052
Gilbert E. Metcalf, James H. Stock
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes","authors":"Gilbert E. Metcalf, James H. Stock","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210052","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon taxation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a negative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO 2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since European carbon taxes typically do not cover those sectors with the lowest marginal abatement costs. (JEL E23, E24, H23, Q54, Q58)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135314810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial 消费对通胀消息的反应如何?随机对照试验的现场证据
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200445
Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Maarten van Rooij
{"title":"How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial","authors":"Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Maarten van Rooij","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200445","url":null,"abstract":"We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses. (JEL C83, D12, D83, D84, E21, E31)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"330 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136185127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Rise of Niche Consumption 小众消费的兴起
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210263
Brent Neiman, Joseph Vavra
{"title":"The Rise of Niche Consumption","authors":"Brent Neiman, Joseph Vavra","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210263","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last 15 years, individual households have concentrated their spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by “superstar” products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly purchase different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has decreased. We develop a model of heterogeneous household demand and use it to conclude that increasing product variety drives these divergent trends. When more products are available, households select products better matched to their tastes. This delivers welfare gains from selection equal to about half a percent per year in the categories covered by our data. (JEL D12, D91, E21, L66)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136185126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Front Matter 前页
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.15.3.i
{"title":"Front Matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/mac.15.3.i","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.15.3.i","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135265064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks 自我伤害的贸易政策?保护主义与生产网络
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190445
Alessandro Barattieri, Matteo Cacciatore
{"title":"Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks","authors":"Alessandro Barattieri, Matteo Cacciatore","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190445","url":null,"abstract":"Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns. (JEL E24, F13, F14, F16, G14, L14)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136163639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Capital-Reallocation Frictions and Trade Shocks 资本再分配摩擦和贸易冲击
1区 经济学
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200429
Andrea Lanteri, Pamela Medina, Eugene Tan
{"title":"Capital-Reallocation Frictions and Trade Shocks","authors":"Andrea Lanteri, Pamela Medina, Eugene Tan","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200429","url":null,"abstract":"What are the short-term effects of an import-competition shock on capital reallocation and aggregate productivity? To address this question, we develop a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and capital-reallocation frictions. We discipline the model with micro data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufacturing firms and trade flows between China and Peru. Because of large frictions in firm downsizing and exit, an import-competition shock induces a temporary aggregate-productivity loss and larger dispersion in marginal products, due to investment inaction and exit of some productive firms. Empirical evidence on the effects of trade shocks on capital reallocation supports the model mechanism. (JEL E22, E23, F14, L60, O14, O16, O19)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136186791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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