从相对价格趋势估计最优通胀目标

IF 6.3 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Klaus Adam, Henning Weber
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们在一个具有产品生命周期和多种商品异质性来源的模型中,导出了Calvo和菜单成本摩擦下的最优通胀目标的封闭表达式。我们展示了两种摩擦提供相同的最佳目标,以及如何从观察到的相对价格趋势估计它。使用英国CPI的微观价格数据,我们记录了大多数支出项目的相对价格在产品生命周期内下降。这导致最佳通胀目标为正,我们对英国2016年的基线估计为2.6%。在过去的二十年中,由于相对价格下降的速度随着时间的推移而加快,最佳目标一直在稳步增加。(凝胶c51, d15, e31, 11)
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices
We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a product life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the optimal inflation target to be positive, with our baseline estimate for the United Kingdom being equal to 2.6 percent in 2016. The optimal target has steadily increased over the prior two decades due to an acceleration in the rates of relative price decline over time. (JEL C51, D15, E31, L11)
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.
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