封锁政策对健康和宏观经济结果的因果影响

IF 6.3 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI:10.1257/mac.20210367

Jonas E Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, J. Rubio-Ramirez, Minchul Shin

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引用次数: 5

摘要

我们评估了大流行导致的封锁对健康和宏观经济结果的因果影响，并衡量了遏制大流行传播与经济活动之间的权衡。为此，我们估计了一个具有时变参数的流行病学模型，并将其输出作为估计svar和lp的信息，这些svar和lp量化了非药物政策干预的因果效应。我们将我们的方法应用于比利时2020年COVID-19大流行的数据。我们发现，额外的政府强制交通限制将以很小的GDP成本减少死亡人数。(jel e23, h51, i12, i15, i18)

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The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes

We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that additional government-mandated mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at a very small cost in terms of GDP. (JEL E23, H51, I12, I15, I18)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.