Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique最新文献

{"title":"Intergenerational income mobility trends in Canada","authors":"Marie Connolly,&nbsp;Catherine Haeck","doi":"10.1111/caje.12699","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12699","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document the rise the intergenerational transmission of income using newly updated administrative Canadian tax data for children born between the early 1960s and the mid-1980s. We show that children whose parents were in the bottom income quintile have become less likely to exit the bottom quintile once in adulthood and less likely to transition into the middle class. Declining mobility is observed both at the national and provincial level. While federal and provincial policy-makers should worry about the rise in the strength of the poverty trap, the impact of recent policy developments on children that have yet to become adults remains to be documented.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 1","pages":"5-26"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12699","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139251286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis","authors":"Martin Eichenbaum","doi":"10.1111/caje.12697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12697","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this lecture, I review work addressing three questions. First, are predictions about macro stabilization policies robust to reasonable departures from rational expectations? Second, do people's expectations converge to a particular set of rational expectations? Third, if they do converge, how quickly? I discuss examples from the literature where the answer to the first question is no. The answer to the second question is that learning equilibria converge to the “standard” rational equilibria analyzed in new Keynesian models. Finally, I discuss circumstances under which the answer to the third question is <i>very</i> slowly. In the examples, learning is slowest and policy analysis based on rational expectations is least robust in the face of shocks that render the stakes of getting policy “right” the highest.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"56 4","pages":"1221-1237"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12697","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138468637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mandatory minimum sentencing and its effect on sentencing distributions: Evidence from Canada","authors":"Jeffrey Penney,&nbsp;Steven Lehrer,&nbsp;Emilia Galan","doi":"10.1111/caje.12696","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12696","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Whether judges and prosecutors should be given full discretionary power in sentencing or mandatory minimum sentences be imposed remains a fiercely debated topic. In this paper, we examine the impact of Canada's 2005 introduction of minimum sentences on sexual offences against children and child pornography on the distribution of sentence lengths using administrative data containing the universe of these offences that occurred between 2003 and 2007. We find that the average sentence length for affected crimes at times increased by substantially more than the newly imposed minimum, and effects of the policy appear even in the middle and upper portions of the sentencing distribution. These increases occur immediately following the policy change, signalling that judges and prosecutors quickly change their sentencing behaviour after the implementation of mandatory minimum sentences. These lengthier sentences have significant implications for the estimation of the fiscal costs of minimum sentencing policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 1","pages":"55-77"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12696","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135036896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When pro-poor microcredit institutions favour richer borrowers: A moral hazard story","authors":"Sara Biancini,&nbsp;David Ettinger,&nbsp;Baptiste Venet","doi":"10.1111/caje.12694","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12694","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We suggest an explanation for the existence of “mission drift,” the tendency for Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) to lend money to wealthier borrowers rather than to the very poor. We focus on the relationship between MFIs and external funding institutions. We assume that both the MFIs and the funding institutions are pro-poor. However, asymmetric information on the effort chosen by the MFI to identify higher-quality projects may increase the share of loans attributed to wealthier borrowers. This occurs because funding institutions have to build incentives for MFIs, creating a trade-off between the quality of the funded projects and the attribution of loans to poorer borrowers.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 1","pages":"225-242"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12694","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135037041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An experimental investigation of persuasion through selective disclosure of evidence","authors":"Arianna Degan,&nbsp;Ming Li,&nbsp;Huan Xie","doi":"10.1111/caje.12695","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12695","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We experimentally study the interaction between a persuader and a decision-maker. The former would like to persuade the latter to approve a project by providing evidence on the project's value. He may choose a selective disclosure strategy on the basis of his private information. Our experimental design contrasts situations where the persuader observes private information or not and where the decision-maker interacts with a human or robot persuader. The experimental results confirm the theoretical prediction that the human persuader manipulates the production of evidence. Although the decision-maker does not adequately take into account such manipulation, the comparative static analysis across treatments is mostly consistent with theoretical predictions with a rational decision-maker. Our findings on the welfare effect of the persuader's manipulation on the decision-maker are consistent with theory. In particular, the decision-maker may benefit from such manipulation. However, the welfare effect on the persuader is not always consistent with theory, in that there are instances in which the persuader is not hurt by manipulation even though theory predicts that he is.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"56 4","pages":"1490-1516"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12695","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135391501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comment on Dincecco et al. (2022): Pre-colonial warfare and long-run development in India","authors":"Rachel Forshaw,&nbsp;Tim Ölkers,&nbsp;Ritika Sethi,&nbsp;Manali Sovani","doi":"10.1111/caje.12693","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12693","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We test the reproducibility and replicability of M. Dincecco, J. Fenske, A. Menon and S. Mukherjee (2022), which reports a positive relationship between pre-colonial interstate warfare and long-run development patterns across India. Overall, we confirm that all of the study's estimates are computationally reproducible using the provided replication package in Stata, but note that the ease of replication could be improved by the provision of code and intermediate data sets for the conflict exposure measure. We test for and find no evidence of data manipulation in the final data sets. Concerning direct replicability, we consider different ways of measuring distance to conflicts and also alternative proxies for both the dependent variable and variables that capture channels by which the main effects operate. We find that some estimates are sensitive to the type of conflict considered. Other estimates are sensitive to the time period considered, most likely due to time heterogeneity in the number of conflicts recorded. Nevertheless, most estimates are substantially in line with the original study.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"58 1","pages":"75-96"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12693","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135678837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the empirical validity of “Gendered reactions to terrorist attacks can cause slumps not bumps” (Holman et al. 2022)","authors":"Michael Jetter,&nbsp;Kieran Stockley","doi":"10.1111/caje.12692","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12692","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;M. R. Holman, J. L. Merolla and A. Zechmeister (2022) propose women (compared to men) political leaders experience significant drops in public approval ratings after a transnational terrorist attack. After documenting how survey-based evaluations of then-Prime Minister Theresa May suffered after the 2017 Manchester Arena attack, Holman et al. (2022) assemble a country–quarter level panel database to explore the generality of their hypothesis. They report evidence suggesting women (compared to men) leaders systematically experience decreased public approval rates after major transnational terrorist attacks (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ p $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;-value of 0.020). We find that result disappears once &lt;i&gt;any&lt;/i&gt; of the following adjustments is implemented: (i) excluding election quarter covariates (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;.&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;104&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ p=0.104 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), (ii) correcting objective coding errors in the election quarter covariates (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;.&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;058&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ p=0.058 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), (iii) excluding the May–Manchester observation (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;.&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;098&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ p=0.098 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) or (iv) clustering standard errors at the country level (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;.&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;558&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ p=0.558 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;). Exploring all &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {2}^5 $$&lt;/annot","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"58 1","pages":"97-108"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12692","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135820369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the composition of household portfolios: A latent class approach","authors":"Raslan Alzuabi,&nbsp;Sarah Brown,&nbsp;Mark N. Harris,&nbsp;Karl Taylor","doi":"10.1111/caje.12691","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12691","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore portfolio allocation in Great Britain by introducing a latent class modelling approach using household panel data based on a nationally representative sample of the population, namely the Wealth and Assets Survey. The latent class aspect of the model splits households into four groups, from lowest-wealth and least-diversified through to highest-wealth and most-diversified, which serves to unveil a more detailed picture of the determinants of portfolio diversification than existing econometric approaches. A pattern of class heterogeneity is revealed that conventional econometric models are unable to identify because the statistical significance and the direction of the effect of some explanatory variables vary across the groups. For example, the effect of labour income on the number of financial assets held influences the level of diversification for the two middle classes, whereas no effect is found for households with the lowest or the highest levels of diversification. Noticeable differences in the magnitude of the effects of pension wealth and occupation are also revealed across the four classes. Such findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for latent heterogeneity when modelling financial behaviour. Ultimately, treating the population as a single homogeneous group may lead to biased parameter estimates, whereby policy based on such models could be inappropriate or erroneous.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 1","pages":"243-275"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12691","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134906441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of discretionary tax changes in Canada: Evidence from a new narrative measure of tax shocks","authors":"Syed M. Hussain,&nbsp;Lin Liu","doi":"10.1111/caje.12689","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12689","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of changes in federal taxes for the Canadian economy for the time period 1961–2014. We document all legislated tax changes and the motivations behind them. We then employ the narrative methodology of Romer and Romer (2010) and Cloyne (2013) to identify exogenous changes in federal taxes. Our main empirical result shows that a tax cut of 1% of GDP leads to an increase in GDP of 2.1% on impact and a peak increase of 2.68% after three quarters of the initial shock. Disaggregated analysis shows that the response of output is driven by consumption and investment. We also find changes in personal income and other (sales and production) taxes to have strong effects on output.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 1","pages":"78-107"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12689","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135113087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Family-level responses to the introduction of Tax-Free Savings Accounts","authors":"Adam M. Lavecchia","doi":"10.1111/caje.12690","DOIUrl":"10.1111/caje.12690","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents evidence on the effect of the introduction of Canadian Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) on the savings of families with children. Contributions to TFSAs are not tax-deductible but capital income earned in the account accrues tax-free and withdrawals are not taxed. Using a difference-in-differences instrumental variables research design that exploits the sharp change in a family's cumulative TFSA contribution room that arises when a child turns 18 years old, I find that a $1 increase in family-level TFSA balances lowers taxable financial asset holdings by approximately $0.25 to $0.45 and has no statistically significant effect on holdings in traditional tax-deferred accounts. My results suggest that having an additional adult family member eligible to open a TFSA increases the TFSA contributions and account balances of both adult children and their parents.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 1","pages":"108-139"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12690","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135265651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}