Vasileios Gkonis , Ioannis Tsakalos , Ilias Kampouris
{"title":"Constrained portfolio optimization via Artificial Gorilla Troops: Benchmarking against swarm-intelligence metaheuristic algorithms","authors":"Vasileios Gkonis , Ioannis Tsakalos , Ilias Kampouris","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the years, the challenge of portfolio optimization has gained increasing attention from scientists and experienced investors, where maximizing returns with the least possible risk is the major goal. In recent times, there has been a significant surge in interest in metaheuristic algorithms across various industries. In this study, we propose the use of the Artificial Gorilla Troops Optimizer (AGTO) for portfolio optimization. We evaluate its effectiveness and compare it against sixteen other swarm intelligence-based metaheuristic algorithms under varying population and epoch sizes. Our evaluation is based on the Sharpe ratio, utilizing a portfolio composed of stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The results indicate that AGTO demonstrates strong potential as an effective method for optimal portfolio selection. In addition, this work provides valuable insights into metaheuristic algorithms that have seen relatively limited application in the existing portfolio optimization literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145791085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic Agency, financial hedging and optimal investment","authors":"Yehong Yang, Xun You, Yuqian Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the continuous-time contract framework (DeMarzo et al., 2012), hereinafter referred to as the DFHW model), we develop an enhanced continuous-time contract framework incorporating an optimal financial hedging strategy to effectively mitigate firm-specific risks. This paper confirms the presence of a lagged effect of the hedging strategy on a firm’s investment. Compared with the DFHW model, our findings reveal that the optimal hedging strategy has a significant influence on dynamic contracts, including investors’ value, dynamic investment, dividend payments, and so on. Especially in an equilibrium state, the investors tend to distribute dividends at lower levels and earlier than those predicted by the DFHW model, thereby mitigating the risk burden on entrepreneurs. Finally, the hedging strategy is significantly influenced by hedging costs, which in turn have an impact on firms’ investment and dividend boundary. This paper further validates the rationality and feasibility of our devised financial hedging strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 102556"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The spillover effect of customer extreme climate risk: Evidence from supplier trade credit","authors":"Zhen Huang, Tianyu Dou","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the spillover effect of customer extreme climate risk on suppliers’ trade credit provision to their customers, and the moderating effects of customer climate sensitivity and customer green investment. We find that suppliers decrease trade credit provision as customer extreme climate risk increases. This adverse impact is stronger when firms have higher customer climate sensitivity and lower customer green investment. The negative effect continues to hold under several robustness tests, such as instrumental variable regression and propensity score matching. We further find that the influencing mechanism through which customer extreme climate risk impacts supplier trade credit is to increase the likelihood of customer credit risk. Additionally, the effect of customer extreme climate risk on suppliers’ trade credit provision is more significant when customers are non-state-owned or have a low market position. Our findings highlight the importance of customer extreme climate risk and offer valuable insights for suppliers to refine their business strategies in the context of supply chain risk spillover.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 102553"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does innovation-driven policy optimize urban energy consumption? Evidence from China’s innovation-driven city pilot policies","authors":"Yingnan Cong , Yufei Hou , Yuan Ji , Xiaojing Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Restructuring energy consumption is essential for promoting green, low-carbon economic and societal development. Innovation-driven policies, particularly those implemented in pilot cities, play a crucial role in this transformation. This study conducts a theoretical analysis to examine how such policies influence urban energy-consumption structures. Using a multitime-point difference-in-differences model, it treats China’s national innovation-driven city pilot policies as a quasi-natural experiment. The results indicate that these policies significantly improve urban energy structures. Mechanism analyses reveal that the improvements occur mainly through green innovation and industrial upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the effects are more pronounced in cities with lower administrative tiers, more challenging geographical conditions, and stronger environmental priorities. These findings provide valuable policy insights for refining innovation-driven strategies, enhancing urban energy-consumption structures, and promoting sustainable economic development in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 102548"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cybersecurity risk and firm growth: Empirical evidence based on text analysis","authors":"Gengxi Xu, Yugang Li, Shanshan Liu, Zhuhong Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite cybersecurity risk emerging as a critical firm threat, research on effective prevention and response strategies remains limited. Using a sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2022, this study adopts text analysis to construct indicators that portray the cybersecurity risk of Chinese listed companies and systematically examines the impact of cybersecurity risk on firm growth. The findings reveal that cybersecurity risk significantly inhibits firm growth. Mechanism analysis indicates that cybersecurity risk adversely impacts growth by increasing firms’ excessive cash holdings, amplifying operational risks, and exacerbating financing constraints. Further analysis shows that the growth-inhibiting effect is more pronounced among firms in technology-intensive industries, larger scale, higher media attention, and higher analyst attention. This study provides empirical evidence to guide firms in developing preemptive cybersecurity strategies, supports regulators in implementing differentiated governance, and helps governments refine cybersecurity incentives. These measures help firms strike a balance between growth and risk while supporting effective cybersecurity governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 102542"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Expected versus unexpected Inflation:The role of Trade Policy","authors":"Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how trade policy shocks, specifically tariffs, distinctly affect the 1-year expected versus unexpected components of U.S. inflation. Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression model and monthly data from 2007 to 2025, we decompose headline inflation to uncover a powerful and nuanced role for trade policy. We find that tariffs have a statistically significant and positive long-run impact on unexpected inflation. In contrast, while a tariff shock does not produce a statistically significant response in the level of expected inflation, our variance decomposition reveals it is the single largest long-run contributor to its volatility. These effects are distinct from short-run dynamics, where oil prices primarily drive inflation surprises. We also identify a formal structural break in May 2018, after which the effects of monetary policy grew to overshadow those of trade policy. A counterfactual analysis confirms that in the absence of tariff shocks, the inflation path would have been different. A key implication is that trade policy, through tariffs, creates significant long-term uncertainty for inflation expectations, complicating the task of maintaining price stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102578"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaorui Xue , Shaofang Li , Xiaonan Wang , Tingting Ren
{"title":"Enhancing stock market predictions with multivariate signal decomposition and dynamic feature optimization","authors":"Xiaorui Xue , Shaofang Li , Xiaonan Wang , Tingting Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting stock trends is vital in financial systems, providing insights for strategies aimed at generating excess returns. The market’s intrinsically chaotic, nonlinear, and multivariate characteristics hinder the efficacy of traditional deep learning models, especially in recognizing dynamic interdependencies and temporal non-stationarity. This study introduces an innovative hybrid framework (MVMD-NT-TiF) that integrates multivariate signal decomposition, non-stationary sequence modeling, and dual-attention-based feature selection into a cohesive architecture. By concurrently tackling noise, temporal adaptability, and feature redundancy, the approach facilitates precise and resilient forecasting in intricate financial contexts. Empirical findings regarding key stock indices illustrate its enhanced accuracy and universality relative to leading baselines, underscoring its use in real-world scenarios such as quantitative investing, risk management, and trend analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 102546"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abdulaziz A. Alshamrani , David Rakowski , Salil Sarkar
{"title":"Credit ratings and top executives’ political ideology","authors":"Abdulaziz A. Alshamrani , David Rakowski , Salil Sarkar","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine whether credit ratings reflect the political ideology of the broader top management team rather than that of the CEO alone. Using political donation data for top executives from 1992 to 2017, we show that firms with more conservative executive teams receive higher credit ratings and are more likely to be investment grade. While CEO conservatism is positively associated with ratings, the ideology of non-CEO executives has comparable and often greater explanatory power. In firms where CEO and executive team ideologies diverge, ratings align more closely with the ideology of non-CEO managers. Additional analyses exploiting CEO turnover, firm fixed effects, and matched samples largely rule out alternative explanations based on firm culture or selection. Overall, the results suggest that credit rating agencies condition on the risk preferences of senior leadership teams rather than solely on CEOs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102573"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inflation targeting and stock market liquidity: a difference-in-difference and doubly robust analysis of emerging markets","authors":"Ichrak Dridi , Mohamed Malek Belhoula , Adel Boughrara","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of full-fledged inflation targeting (IT) regime adoption on stock market liquidity in emerging markets, addressing a critical yet underexplored dimension of monetary policy’s financial market effects. Understanding how IT influences financial market stability is crucial, particularly for emerging economies where liquidity constraints exacerbate financial fragility. Analyzing 35 emerging countries, of which 15 are inflation targeters, over the period 1990–2023, we employ Difference-in-Differences and Doubly Robust methods to assess the influence of IT on stock market liquidity, utilizing several proxies for liquidity. Our findings indicate that IT has a significant impact on liquidity, particularly during crises such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive impact of IT adoption on stock market liquidity emerges after a three-year delay and becomes statistically significant once key economic and financial variables are controlled for. Robust across multiple checks, our study extends prior literature by offering a broad multi-country perspective, isolating IT’s unique role, and using advanced methods to address selection bias. It highlights IT as a key policy tool for financial stability, equipping central bankers with strategies to prevent liquidity dry-ups and strengthen economic resilience in turbulent times.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102580"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Halilibrahim Gökgöz , Aamir Aijaz Syed , Catalin Gheorghe , Ahmed Jeribi
{"title":"Quantile-frequency dependence between U.S. sector stock indices and macro-financial indicators: A quantile coherence approach","authors":"Halilibrahim Gökgöz , Aamir Aijaz Syed , Catalin Gheorghe , Ahmed Jeribi","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the quantile–frequency linkages between U.S. sectoral stock indices and four macro-financial indicators: market volatility (VIX), geopolitical risk (GPR), inflation expectations (T5YIE), and the yield curve (T10Y3M), using the Quantile Coherence (QC) framework. The method captures nonlinear and asymmetric interactions across quantiles and horizons. The dataset covers daily observations from January 2016 to July 2025, encompassing episodes such as Brexit, the China–U.S. trade war, and recent geopolitical conflicts. Results reveal strong sectoral heterogeneity: dependence on VIX is predominantly negative in the short term during bullish phases, with reversals at longer horizons; the influence of GPR is asymmetric and forward-looking; inflation expectations, captured by T5YIE, show a stable long-run positive association with all sectors; while the yield curve (T10Y3M) generates systematic long-term co-movements, with leadership alternating between financial indicators and sector indices across regimes. These findings demonstrate uneven sectoral responses to macro-financial drivers and provide guidance for risk management and portfolio design in uncertain environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 102552"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}