{"title":"A penalized U-MIDAS multinomial logit model with applications to corporate credit ratings","authors":"Cuixia Jiang , Junwei Sun , Qifa Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a penalized U-MIDAS-Mlogit model by introducing the group LASSO penalty into the unrestricted MIDAS multinomial logit model. This penalized U-MIDAS-Mlogit model can implement multinomial classification in a high-dimensional mixed-frequency data environment. We apply it to credit ratings for listed companies in China over the period 2008–2023. The penalized U-MIDAS-Mlogit model can extract pivotal information from high-frequency financial variables and low-frequency internal and external governance indicators. It outperforms several competing models in predicting credit ratings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102381"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sharon S. Yang , Jr-Wei Huang , Hong-Yi Chen , Min-Hung Tsay
{"title":"Detecting corporate ESG performance: The role of ESG materiality in corporate financial performance and risks","authors":"Sharon S. Yang , Jr-Wei Huang , Hong-Yi Chen , Min-Hung Tsay","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In line with the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) guidelines, this study constructs SASB ESG Scores for firms and evaluates their influence on financial performance and risks. Empirical evidence shows a positive association between a firm’s SASB ESG Score and financial performance, along with a negative link to financial risks. In contrast, the ESG Disclosure Score fails to predict a firm’s financial performance and risks. Furthermore, the effect of the SASB ESG Score on profit is associated with higher market competitiveness and greater operational efficiency. On the other hand, the risk reduction is associated with the mitigation of stock price crash risks. The piecewise linear regression analysis suggests that superior SASB ESG Scores are linked to enhanced financial performance and reduced financial risks. We attribute the findings to the efficient allocation of resources toward ESG activities that hold material significance within a firm’s specific industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102370"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mutual fund style drift measured using higher moments and its cash flow incentive","authors":"Qi Chen , Peng Wang , Dong Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the contribution of higher moment information to the identification of mutual fund investment styles. We develop a multi-objective optimization model that identifies fund investment styles by simultaneously considering returns and higher moments risks. Our results indicate that this model, by incorporating variance and skewness, can more accurately identify fund investment styles. We then quantify the degree of style drift exhibited by funds utilizing the proposed model. Employing a dataset of 1327 open-ended equity funds in China between 2008 and 2023, we find that style drift is both pervasive and persistent. Funds susceptible to style drift tend to be smaller, have higher portfolio turnover and expense ratios, and are supervised by less seasoned managers. In addition, we explore how cash flows affect funds’ style drift behavior. Our analysis reveals a positive relationship between low cash inflows and the magnitude of style drift. This finding remains consistent after addressing potential endogeneity concerns. Finally, we find no support for the hypothesis that style drift enhances future fund performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102373"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"International extreme sovereign risk connectedness: Network structure and roles","authors":"Wei-Qiang Huang , Peipei Liu , Yao-Long Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With network topology measures, we can model the global and individual properties of international extreme sovereign risk spillovers and understand how shocks propagate. Hence, using dynamic connectedness based on a TVP-VAR model, we construct daily extreme sovereign risk spillover networks based on defined extreme risk series among the G20. Our purpose is to creatively explore the network structures and describe international connectedness. We find that system- and country-level measures are all more sensitive to global systemic events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Country-level analysis shows that emerging countries such as Mexico, South Africa and European countries such as Spain emit and receive larger risk spillovers. Using the Logit and threshold regression, we creatively explore whether these system- and country-level measures can explain the probability of countries’ extreme sovereign risk outbreaks. The results show that system-level measures such as total risk spillover strength and country-level measures all play positive roles. Specifically, the greater the total risk spillover strength, the more central countries’ position and the greater the probability of countries’ extreme sovereign risk outbreak. Most importantly, their roles are the largest when the total risk spillover strength is at the middle level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102355"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A predictive term-spread model in the age of inflation targeting","authors":"Jostein Tvedt","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102364","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102364","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The link between the shape of the US government bond yield curve and future economic growth is analysed using a novel real economy endowment model. The model suggests that the predictive power of bond market prices relies on the entire yield curve, i.e., on the long run interest rate level, the short-dated bond yield, the forecast horizon specific term spread and term premiums. A forecast horizon specific, maturity weighted, term spread is suggested as a supplement to extant one-factor term-spread models. The endowment model offers a theoretical basis for the findings of the recent empirical literature, which indicate predictive power of both the slope and curvature of the yield curve. The paper’s empirical section supports the observation that, in recent decades, the slope and curvature are predictors of US economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102364"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Patric Papenfuß, Amelie Schischke, Andreas Rathgeber
{"title":"Factors of predictive power for metal commodities","authors":"Patric Papenfuß, Amelie Schischke, Andreas Rathgeber","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are numerous forecasting studies on commodity prices using various micro- and macroeconomic indicator sets. However, commodity markets have undergone a substantial transformation in the last 20 years, with periods of the financialization, and possibly also a de-financialization, which should also be reflected in the commodity price forecasts. To identify the changes in price predictors and determinants, we individually forecast 24 metal prices one-month ahead in the pre- and post financial crisis period, where we identify the autoregressive price components having a large impact across all commodities and periods. However, interest rates are of larger impact in the first sub-sample, whereas commodity- and financial market indices are dominating in the second sub-sample. Further, we perform an out-of-sample forecast over the entire timespan, where we are able to significantly outperform the predefined benchmark forecast models, a random-walk and a random-walk with drift, in 12 of the 24 cases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102309"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does the VIX act as the main transmitter of mispricing in index futures markets? Insights from European and American regions","authors":"S.M.R.K. Samarakoon , Rudra P. Pradhan , Sasikanta Tripathy , Manju Jayakumar","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the interconnected mispricing of index futures in European and American markets from 2008 to 2023, with a specific focus on the role of the Volatility Index (VIX) and the adjustment for transaction costs in shaping these dynamics. Utilizing the cost of carry model, theoretical prices are computed, and discrepancies with actual market values are analysed to measure actionable mispricing. Econometric tools, including DCC-GARCH, connectedness approach, and quantile regression, are employed to assess dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillovers, using three distinct datasets: daily mispricing series, weekly mispricing series, and transaction cost-adjusted boundary violation series. This layered approach enables a comprehensive analysis of interconnected mispricing and robustness across different temporal frequencies and adjustments. Our results highlight significant interconnected mispricing driven by market volatilities, with the VIX serving as a pivotal transmitter of volatility during periods of financial turbulence. The analysis demonstrates that the inclusion of the VIX significantly amplifies systemic connectedness, while its exclusion emphasizes regional dynamics, with the Euro Stoxx 50 Index Futures emerging as a principal hub within European markets. The incorporation of transaction costs further reveals critical insights into boundary violations, identifying actionable mispricing and its contribution to systemic volatility, providing a more granular understanding of these dynamics. The robustness of the findings is validated through the use of both daily and weekly data, with consistent patterns of interconnectedness and volatility propagation observed across all analyses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102341"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Connectedness of cryptocurrency-related stocks and the cryptocurrency market: Evidence from the United States","authors":"Erdinc Akyildirim , Shaen Corbet , Ali Coskun , Metin Ercan","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the dynamic interplay and volatility spillovers between cryptocurrency markets and major NASDAQ Blockchain Economy Index (NBEI) stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilising a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, we capture the evolving relationships and identify key patterns of market connectedness. Results reveal a significant increase in market interconnectedness during the pandemic, with pronounced unidirectional volatility spillovers from cryptocurrencies to traditional stocks. Stocks related to digital payment systems predominantly mediate these spillovers, highlighting their central role in financial volatility transmission. This research sheds light on the integrated behaviour of digital and traditional financial assets and offers critical insights for investors and policymakers in enhancing portfolio diversification and strategic decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102344"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ESG rating divergence and stock price crash risk","authors":"Chunhua Ju , Xusheng Fang , Zhonghua Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to explore the impact of ESG rating divergence on firms’ stock price crash risk. Using ESG ratings from six different agencies, we find that a greater divergence in ESG ratings significantly lowers the likelihood of future crash risk. Specifically, the mechanism by which ESG rating divergence reduces crash risk lies in the fact that it triggers more investor attention as well as improves the quality of voluntary corporate disclosure. Further cross-sectional tests reveal that the negative impact of ESG rating divergence on crash risk is more pronounced when managers are more likely to conceal bad news. Finally, we also find that the relationship between the two is moderated by firm size and ownership structure. This paper offers new insights into how ESG rating divergence impacts firms’ capital market performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102323"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Explosiveness in the renewable energy equity sector: International evidence","authors":"Juan Ariza, Román Ferrer","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2025.102378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates episodes of explosiveness in the renewable energy equity sectors of the three major economic regions, namely the U.S., China, and Europe, as well as the degree of connectedness between these regional renewable energy sectors and their respective broader stock markets. To this end, the novel methodology developed by <span><span>Phillips and Shi (2019)</span></span> is employed in conjunction with the robust bootstrap procedure of <span><span>Phillips and Shi (2020)</span></span>. Furthermore, the connectedness framework of <span><span>Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012</span></span>, <span><span>Diebold and Yilmaz, 2014</span></span> is used to assess return connectedness. The empirical results reveal significant episodes of explosiveness within the renewable energy sectors across the three regions. The principal period of explosivity began in late 2020 within U.S. and European renewable energy stocks, following the initial COVID-19 pandemic wave, and subsequently spread to Chinese renewable energy stocks. However, there is limited co-explosivity between the renewable energy sectors and broader stock markets, indicating that the explosive dynamics in renewable energy equities do not pose a systemic threat for the general stock markets. Additionally, the study reveals a decrease in connectedness between the regional renewable energy sectors and their broader market counterparts during the recent explosive periods, likely reflecting the decoupling of renewable energy stocks from general market trends during the latter stages of the renewable energy bubble.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 102378"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143094295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}