Hela Nammouri, Sana Braiek, Catalin Gheorghe, Ahmed Jeribi
{"title":"When does gold protect emerging markets? structural vs. cyclical uncertainty in a time–frequency analysis","authors":"Hela Nammouri, Sana Braiek, Catalin Gheorghe, Ahmed Jeribi","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102676","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102676","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how gold protects emerging market (EM) equities by separating long-term structural uncertainty from short-term market stress. We use a multiscale time–frequency framework combining wavelet coherence, partial and multiple coherence, and cross-wavelet analysis. The sample covers daily data for twelve major EMs between 2016 and 2025, conditioned on the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index and the Volatility Index (VIX). Results reveal two distinct regimes. Under geopolitical risk, gold and equities move together at low frequencies, showing that gold behaves as a strategic hedge over long horizons. During volatility spikes, however, the link becomes short-lived and intense, eroding diversification when stress is highest. The strength of these effects varies across countries, depending on financial depth, external exposure, and currency risk. A complementary multifractal cross-correlation analysis confirms that gold’s hedging power is dynamic and scale-dependent. These findings provide time–frequency evidence on the conditions under which gold’s portfolio role appears stronger or weaker across emerging markets. They also offer guidance for investors seeking horizon-aware diversification and for policymakers monitoring risk transmission to emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102676"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148523631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Binh Nguyen Thanh, Thanh Cong Nguyen, Anh Nguyen Tuan, Hanh Le Hong, Anh Dao Le Trang
{"title":"Herding behavior of cryptocurrency during the 2024 U.S. presidential election","authors":"Binh Nguyen Thanh, Thanh Cong Nguyen, Anh Nguyen Tuan, Hanh Le Hong, Anh Dao Le Trang","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the presence of herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets during the 2024 U.S. presidential election − an unprecedented period in which digital assets emerged as a major topic in national political discourse. Using high-frequency (30-minute interval) data on five leading cryptocurrencies and employing two established dispersion measures (CSSD and CSAD), the research investigates investor behavior before and after the electoral victory of President Donald Trump, who explicitly endorsed cryptocurrencies. Contrary to much of the prior literature that finds evidence of herding during periods of market uncertainty, our results consistently indicate statistically significant evidence of anti-herding behavior across all examined timeframes. These findings suggest that, despite heightened political attention and increased market volatility, cryptocurrency investors exhibited independent and rational trading behavior rather than following collective market trends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102663"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148523632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"When volatility is not enough: classical and quantum behaviors in stock investment","authors":"F.Xavier Alvarez, Hector Sala","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102667","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102667","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce two novel metrics —the Zero Bin Ratio (ZBR) and algorithmic price variance (<span><math><mrow><mi>λ</mi></mrow></math></span>)— to analyze investor behavior in high-frequency equity markets. Using nanosecond-level trading data from Nasdaq-100 stocks, we distinguish between classical and quantum patterns of investor behavior. In the classical case, bid-ask spreads are primarily driven by realized volatility, while in the quantum case, they are better explained by algorithmic variance and central distribution dynamics. The ZBR complements this distinction by capturing the role of zero-price-change trades in shaping liquidity. Our framework offers a new lens on market microstructure and investor heterogeneity. We apply it to twelve Nasdaq-100 firms—selected for their structural diversity, trading intensity, and exposure to stock splits—and uncover both persistent behavioral types and sharp regime shifts directly linked to those stock splits. The findings, derived through two empirical specifications tailored to each regime, reveal systematic behavioral heterogeneity with implications for market design, liquidity modeling, and trading strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102667"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148523729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The influence of geopolitical risk on CBDC adoption and uncertainty: wavelet coherence analysis","authors":"Muhammad Umar, Hang Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides empirical evidence on the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and central bank digital currency (CBDC) adoption and uncertainty. Using the wavelet coherence technique, the results reveal a strong association between GPR and both the CBDC adoption index and the CBDC uncertainty index, particularly during the period from May 2021 (Israel-Palestine crisis) to March 2023 (intensified Russia-Ukraine conflict). Throughout this interval, the series predominantly exhibit in-phase movements, indicating a positive relationship; specifically, geopolitical tensions following U.S. sanctions on Russia coincided with an increase in CBDC adoption. To provide deeper insights, the study further examines the relationship between U.S. and Russian geopolitical risks and the CBDC adoption and uncertainty indices separately. The findings show that Russian geopolitical risk has a comparatively stronger association with both indices than U.S. geopolitical risk. Overall, the results suggest that heightened geopolitical risk weakens confidence in the existing global financial system and motivates countries to pursue CBDC initiatives, potentially contributing to the emergence of an alternative framework for international transactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102673"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148523730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hina Mushtaq , Muhammad Ishtiaq , Surayya Jamal , Syed Maisam Raza Rizvi , Hamad Raza
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Regime-Switching volatility and risk quantification in South Asian and developed stock Markets: A Comparative perspective using Markov-Switching GARCH with MLE and MCMC estimations” [N. Am. J. Econ. Financ. 82 (2026) 102576]","authors":"Hina Mushtaq , Muhammad Ishtiaq , Surayya Jamal , Syed Maisam Raza Rizvi , Hamad Raza","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102626","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102626","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 102626"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147850749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of monetary policy shocks on inequality in the Eurozone","authors":"Makram El-Shagi","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we assess the impact of monetary policy shocks on the income distribution in the Eurozone after the Global Financial Crisis, i.e., a time of unconventional monetary policy. Unlike previous papers that focus on the pre-crisis era, where monetary policy was primarily conducted through interest rates, expansionary policy typically increases inequality. This can be mitigated by highly developed financial markets and sound institutions that limit rent-seeking.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 102608"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147388463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of global EPU spillovers on the housing market returns: cross-country evidence","authors":"Yuting Gong , Feifei Wang , Wenjun Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102638","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102638","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research introduces a new measure of cross-border policy uncertainty transmission through the application of quantile VAR techniques to EPU dynamics. Using a sample of 23 countries from 2003 to 2022, we find that elevated global EPU spillovers are associated with significantly reduced housing market returns. This relationship is stronger during crisis periods and particularly noticeable in developed markets. The findings are robust to various tests, including expanded macroeconomic and financial control variables, longer forecast horizons, alternative EPU quantification approaches, subsample analysis, and addressing potential endogeneity. Furthermore, we find that US-originated policy uncertainty exerts substantially greater influence on housing returns than those from China. Our findings underscore the relevance of global economic uncertainty for housing markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 102638"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147798453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inflation shocks: quantile unit root inference for panel data with cross-correlations","authors":"Saban Nazlioglu , Dogukan Tarakci , Cagin Karul , Lokman Salih Erdem","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing empirical literature documents evidence on persistence of shocks to inflation; however, little is known about the nature of inflation shocks with asymmetric persistence and cross-correlations. By introducing panel quantile unit root approach with common shocks for a sample of 75 countries from January-1980 to December-2022, this study provides new insights on the persistence of inflation shocks. The panel quantile unit root analysis sheds light on that (i) inflation appears to exhibit significant cross-correlations across countries at all quantiles, and persistence of inflation shocks shifts notably between low and high quantiles, reflecting asymmetric persistence in inflation dynamics, (ii) inflation rates tend to be mean reverting during low to moderate inflation periods, but more persistent in high inflation period, (iii) inflation becomes persistent at higher thresholds in countries with a history of inflationary episodes. These findings reveal the importance of considering asymmetric persistence and cross-correlations for analyzing inflation shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102592"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social tolerance and firm innovation","authors":"Gia Han Doan , Suin Lee , Bin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the relationship between social tolerance and firm innovation. We find that firms located in states with higher levels of social tolerance are more innovative. We also find that firms in areas with higher degrees of social tolerance attain higher diversity scores. In addition, the relationship between social tolerance and firm innovation is stronger for firms located in states with higher levels of social capital and for firms with weaker diversity initiatives. Collectively, our findings support the notion that social tolerance, representing the openness and inclusiveness of a local community, plays a significant role in firm innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102602"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Asymmetry and determinants of financial connectivity in G20: Evidence from a quantile-based and lasso regression analysis” [N. Am. J. Econ. Financ. 77 (2025) 102379]","authors":"Guangyi Yang , Yong Li , Xiaoxing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102601","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2026.102601","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102601"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147396850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}