Economic Policy最新文献_第3页

On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to russia* 关于有效制裁的设计：禁止向俄罗斯出口的案例*

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad043

Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter, Muhammed A Yıldırım

{"title":"On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to russia*","authors":"Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter, Muhammed A Yıldırım","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad043","url":null,"abstract":"We build on Baqaee and Farhi (2019, 2021) and derive a theoretically-grounded criterion that allows targeting bans on exports to a sanctioned country at the level of ∼5000 6-digit HS products. The criterion implies that the costs to the sanctioned country are highly convex in the market share of the sanctioning parties. Hence, there are large benefits from coordinating export bans among a broad coalition of countries. Applying our results to Russia reveals that sanctions imposed by the EU and the US in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are not systematically related to our arguments once we condition on Russia’s total imports of a product from participating countries. We discuss drivers of these differences, and then provide a quantitative evaluation of the export bans to show that (i) they are very effective with the welfare loss typically ∼100 times larger for Russia than for the sanctioners; (ii) improved coordination of the sanctions and targeting sanctions based on our criterion allows to increase the costs to Russia by about 80% with little to no extra cost to the sanctioners; and (iii) there is scope for increasing the cost to Russia further by expanding the set of sanctioned products.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139586991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bank lending policies and monetary policy: Some lessons from the negative interest era 银行贷款政策和货币政策：负利率时代的一些经验教训

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae001

Oscar Arce, Miguel García-Posada, Sergio Mayordomo, Banco de España, Steven Ongena

引用次数: 0

Sanctions and the Exchange Rate in Time 制裁与汇率时间

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad034

Barry Eichengreen, Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Arnaud Mehl, Isabel Vansteenkiste, Roger Vicquéry

{"title":"Sanctions and the Exchange Rate in Time","authors":"Barry Eichengreen, Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Arnaud Mehl, Isabel Vansteenkiste, Roger Vicquéry","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad034","url":null,"abstract":"We test the predictions of recent theoretical studies of the impact of sanctions on the exchange rate. We build a database of exchange rates and sanctions spanning 1914-1945—an era when both large and small economies were targeted by multilateral sanction packages, facilitating comparisons with today’s Russian war episode. We estimate the dynamic response of the exchange rate in a panel of sanction episodes at weekly frequency using local projections, conditioning on the type of sanctions taken. We tease out mechanisms through which sanctions affect the exchange rate by estimating their effects on macroeconomic variables plausibly acting as transmission channels. Our estimates suggest that import restrictions, export restrictions, asset freezes and trade embargoes lead to exchange rate effects consistent with theory, though the precision of the measured effects varies across sanction type. These findings suggest that recent models of the effects of sanctions on the exchange rate do not just match developments in today’s specific Russia episode but have broader applicability. It follows that the direction of exchange rate movements is not an adequate metric of the success or failure of sanctions but a reflection of the type and scale of the measures taken.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138579894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Private Sanctions 私人制裁

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad041

Oliver Hart, David Thesmar, Luigi Zingales

{"title":"Private Sanctions","authors":"Oliver Hart, David Thesmar, Luigi Zingales","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad041","url":null,"abstract":"We survey a representative sample of the U.S. population to understand stakeholders’ desire to see their firms leave Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Only 37% of the respondents think that leaving Russia is a pure business decision, and only 30% think that sanctions are a pure matter for the government. If a firm does not conform to the desire to leave Russia, 66% of the respondents are willing to boycott it (exit). We randomize a (hypothetical) cost of exiting the firm. This cost has a strong effect on the stated propensity to exit. This sensitivity allows us to provide a natural $equivalent of moral motivations for exiting. We try to distinguish deontological and impact-related motives to exit, by randomizing beliefs about the impact on the firm. We find a clear effect of impact for shareholders, but not for consumers and employees. Our results continue to hold on the subsample of participants who actually donate part of their survey compensation to Ukraine. In our survey, consumers emerge as the most powerful force to control the morality of firms. We discuss the geopolitical and economic implications of a world where private corporations can discontinue profitable business relationships for moral or political reasons.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138563155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Natural Unemployment and Activity Rates in Italy: Flow-based Determinants and Implications for Price Dynamics 意大利的自然失业率和经济活动率:基于流量的决定因素及其对价格动态的影响

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-25 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad032

Francesco D’Amuri, Marta De Philippis, Elisa Guglielminetti, Salvatore Lo Bello

引用次数: 0

Low price-to-book ratios and bank dividend payouts: economic policy implications 低市净率和银行派息:经济政策影响

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-21 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad028

Leonardo Gambacorta, Tommaso Oliviero, Hyun Song Shin

引用次数: 0

Power Mismatch and Civil Conflict: An Empirical Investigation 权力错配与国内冲突:一个实证研究

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad030

Massimo Morelli, Laura Ogliari, Long Hong

{"title":"Power Mismatch and Civil Conflict: An Empirical Investigation","authors":"Massimo Morelli, Laura Ogliari, Long Hong","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad030","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically shows that the imbalance between an ethnic group’s political and military power is crucial to understanding the likelihood that such a group engages in a conflict. We develop a novel measure of a group’s military power by combining machine learning techniques with rich data on ethnic group characteristics and outcomes of civil conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. We couple this measure with available indicators of an ethnic group’s political power as well as with a novel proxy based on information about the ethnicity of cabinet members. We find that groups characterized by a higher mismatch between military and political power are between 30% and 50% more likely to engage in a conflict against their government depending on the specification used. We also find that the effects of power mismatch are nonlinear, which is in agreement with the predictions of a simple model that accounts for the cost of conflict. Moreover, our results suggest that high-mismatched groups are typically involved in larger and centrist conflicts. The policy implication is that power-sharing recommendations and institutional design policies for peace should consider primarily the reduction of power mismatches between relevant groups, rather than focusing exclusively on equalizing political power in isolation.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138541363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What can keep euro area inflation high? 是什么让欧元区通胀居高不下?

3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad029

Ricardo Reis

引用次数: 0

An Empirical Approximation of the Effects of Trade Sanctions with an Application to Russia 贸易制裁效果的实证逼近——以俄罗斯为例

3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad027

Jean Imbs, Laurent Pauwels

{"title":"An Empirical Approximation of the Effects of Trade Sanctions with an Application to Russia","authors":"Jean Imbs, Laurent Pauwels","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions that can readily be computed on the basis of international input-output data. Approximated effects are very close to the exact responses obtained from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model, without having to make difficult calibration choices. We illustrate the approximation with trade sanctions against Russia and obtain estimates well within the existing range. Russia is much more affected by trade sanctions than the EU, even though the importance of EU markets for Russia has been falling, especially since 2014 with China picking up the slack. Within the EU the consequences are largest in ex-“satellite” countries of the Soviet Union: These countries do not typically have access to substitute markets and in fact have historically been highly dependent on Russia. This extreme and persistent dependence is at least partly explained by the existence of specific energy transporting infrastructure (pipelines) that appears to constrain tightly the production of electricity. Our proposed approximation is practical and can be implemented in a variety of contexts: We have developed a web-based dashboard, accessible at exposure.trade that can be used to approximate the costs of trade sanctions for any combinations of sanctioning and sanctioned countries or sectors.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135291796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The legacy of Covid-19 in education 2019冠状病毒病对教育的影响

3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad016

Katharina Werner, Ludger Woessmann

引用次数: 5