Economic Policy最新文献

Automatic for the (tax) people: information sharing and cross-border investment in tax havens 自动为（税务）人服务：信息共享与避税地跨境投资

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae041

Agustín Bénétrix, Lorenz Emter, Martin Schmitz

引用次数: 0

The simple macroeconomics of AI 人工智能的简单宏观经济学

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae042

Daron Acemoglu

{"title":"The simple macroeconomics of AI","authors":"Daron Acemoglu","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI’s effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI’s microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the task level, its macroeconomic consequences will be given by a version of Hulten’s theorem: GDP and aggregate productivity gains can be estimated by what fraction of tasks are impacted and average task-level cost savings. Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years. The paper then argues that even these estimates could be exaggerated, because early evidence is from easy-to-learn tasks, whereas some of the future effects will come from hard-to-learn tasks, where there are many context-dependent factors affecting decision-making and no objective outcome measures from which to learn successful performance. Consequently, predicted TFP gains over the next 10 years are even more modest and are predicted to be less than 0.53%. I also explore AI’s wage and inequality effects. I show theoretically that even when AI improves the productivity of low-skill workers in certain tasks (without creating new tasks for them), this may increase rather than reduce inequality. Empirically, I find that AI advances are unlikely to increase inequality as much as previous automation technologies because their impact is more equally distributed across demographic groups, but there is also no evidence that AI will reduce labor income inequality. Instead, AI is predicted to widen the gap between capital and labor income. Finally, some of the new tasks created by AI may have negative social value (such as design of algorithms for online manipulation), and I discuss how to incorporate the macroeconomic effects of new tasks that may have negative social value.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141946434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multilateral Tax Treaty Revision to Combat Tax Avoidance: On the Merits and Limits of BEPS’s Multilateral Instrument 修订多边税务条约以打击避税：关于 BEPS 多边文书的优点和局限性

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae043

Antonia Hohmann, Valeria Merlo, Nadine Riedel

{"title":"Multilateral Tax Treaty Revision to Combat Tax Avoidance: On the Merits and Limits of BEPS’s Multilateral Instrument","authors":"Antonia Hohmann, Valeria Merlo, Nadine Riedel","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae043","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2015, more than 140 countries have cooperated in the OECD’s “Base Erosion and Profit Shifting” (BEPS) project to combat multinational tax avoidance. Several of the key actions, most importantly measures against tax-treaty shopping, require changes to double taxation treaties. The OECD designed a special instrument—the ‘multilateral instrument’ (MLI) - to allow for a swift implementation of BEPS-related tax treaty changes. In this paper, we show that MLI take-up is incomplete, we present (partly surprising) correlates of the take-up decision and develop a simple theoretical model to rationalize the observed take-up behavior. A key insight is that conduit countries, which are the beneficiaries of tax treaty shopping, can benefit from anti-treaty shopping laws as firms have incentives to scale-up real activity in conduit nations in order to be exempted from the new anti-treaty shopping rules. Empirical findings are consistent with these considerations: MLI adoption rates of conduit countries are high. Treaty shopping has, to date, not significantly dropped. And there is indeed indication that firms have scaled up their real economic activity in conduit nations. Overall, our findings reject that treaty shopping has been “killed” as envisaged by the OECD. JEL classification: F21, F23, F53, H25, H26, H32, H87, K34","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141969467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence Over 50 Years 移民融入德国劳动力市场：50 年来的证据

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae040

Paul Berbée, Jan Stuhler

引用次数: 0

Distributional and climate implications of policy responses to energy price shocks 应对能源价格冲击的政策对分配和气候的影响

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae038

Thiemo Fetzer, Ludovica Gazze, Menna Bishop

引用次数: 0

Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment 较长的学制、儿童保育和母亲的就业质量

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae037

Matias Berthelon, Diana Kruger, Catalina Lauer, Luca Tiberti, Carlos Zamora

{"title":"Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment","authors":"Matias Berthelon, Diana Kruger, Catalina Lauer, Luca Tiberti, Carlos Zamora","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae037","url":null,"abstract":"Better employment quality can improve personal well-being, social cohesion, and inclusive growth and development. Yet good quality jobs—associated with greater well-being—are less accessible to women than men. While it is understood that policies balancing family and work lead to greater female labor participation, this paper investigates whether one such policy—increased childcare—improves the quality of jobs where mothers are employed. The context we analyze is a nationwide school reform in Chile that extended school schedules for primary school-aged children, providing childcare services. We combine administrative data of the phase-in of the policy with panel data of individual mothers’ employment outcomes and socio-economic characteristics. We estimate a fixed-effects model that controls for mothers’ unobserved heterogeneity and identifies the effect of the policy from plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variations in access to schools with long schedules and exogenous exposure to the policy. We find a positive effect of childcare on several measures of employment quality and gender gaps within the couple. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism driving the impact is the implicit subsidy to the cost of childcare, affecting the opportunity cost of mothers’ time. In addition, we find heterogeneous results by mothers’ education level. Access to childcare through longer primary school schedules can increase household welfare and can play a role in reducing income and gender inequalities.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141568369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Women in Political Power and School Closure During Covid Times 科维德时代的女性政治力量与学校关闭

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae033

Natalia Danzer, Sebastian Garcia-Torres, Max Steinhardt, Luca Stella

引用次数: 0

Can Wage Transparency Alleviate Gender Sorting in the Labor Market? 工资透明能否缓解劳动力市场的性别排序？

IF 2.5 3区经济学

Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae025

Omar Bamieh, Lennart Ziegler

引用次数: 0

Trade Liberalization, Economic Activity, and Political Violence in the Global South: Evidence from PTAs 全球南部的贸易自由化、经济活动和政治暴力：来自 PTAs 的证据