Trade Liberalization, Economic Activity, and Political Violence in the Global South: Evidence from PTAs

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Francesco Amodio, Leonardo Baccini, Giorgio Chiovelli, Michele Di Maio
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on economic activity and political violence in emerging countries. We use data on all Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) signed between 25 low- and middle-income countries and their high-income trade partners between 1995 and 2013. We exploit the implied reduction in agricultural tariffs over time combined with variation within countries in their suitability to produce liberalized crops to find that economic activity increases differentially in affected areas. We also find strong positive effects on political violence, and present evidence consistent with both producer- and consumer-side mechanisms: violence increases differentially in more urbanized areas that are suitable to produce less labor-intensive crops as well as crops that are consumed locally. Our estimates imply that economic activity and political violence would have been around 2% and 7% lower, respectively, across countries in our sample had the PTAs not been signed.
全球南部的贸易自由化、经济活动和政治暴力:来自 PTAs 的证据
本文研究了农业贸易自由化对新兴国家经济活动和政治暴力的影响。我们使用了 1995 年至 2013 年间 25 个中低收入国家与其高收入贸易伙伴签署的所有优惠贸易协定(PTA)的数据。我们利用农业关税随时间推移的隐含降幅,结合各国国内生产自由化作物的适宜性差异,发现受影响地区的经济活动会出现不同程度的增长。我们还发现了对政治暴力的强烈正面影响,并提出了与生产方和消费方机制相一致的证据:在适合生产劳动密集程度较低的农作物以及当地消费的农作物的城市化程度较高的地区,暴力会有不同程度的增加。我们的估计结果表明,如果没有签署《自由贸易协定》,样本国家的经济活动和政治暴力将分别减少约 2% 和 7%。
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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