World Bank Research Observer最新文献_第4页

Beyond Poverty Escapes—Social Mobility in Developing Countries: A Review Article 超越贫困的逃亡——发展中国家的社会流动：一篇评论文章

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-09-10 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKZ003

V. Iversen, A. Krishna, K. Sen

{"title":"Beyond Poverty Escapes—Social Mobility in Developing Countries: A Review Article","authors":"V. Iversen, A. Krishna, K. Sen","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKZ003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKZ003","url":null,"abstract":"While social mobility in advanced economies has received extensive scholarly attention, crucial knowledge gaps remain about the patterns and determinants of income, educational, and occupational mobility in developing countries. Focusing on intergenerational mobility, we find that estimates often differ greatly for the same country, depending on the concept and measure of mobility used, on variable constructions and on the data set utilized. There is also wide variation in mobility across regions and social groups. We discuss data and income and other variable measurement challenges when agriculture and the informal sector absorb most of the workforce, and illustrate why occupational classifications and widely used mobility measures may perform less well in such settings. Factors beyond those featuring in the literature on advanced economies are plausible determinants of social mobility, particularly of what we call moderate and large ascents (and descents), in developing country contexts. We highlight the lack of in-depth understanding of the multiple and often localized hurdles to such more pronounced progress. Similar knowledge gaps exist for large descents, which give rise to particularly profound concerns in low-income settings. We report and touch on the implications of suggestive findings of a disconnect between educational and occupational mobility. Innovative research requires critical engagement with theory and with methodology, identification, and data challenges that may overlap or deviate notably from those encountered in advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/WBRO/LKZ003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43828987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 36

External Validity and Policy Adaptation: From Impact Evaluation to Policy Design 外部有效性与政策适应：从影响评价到政策设计

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/wbro/lky010

M. J. Williams

{"title":"External Validity and Policy Adaptation: From Impact Evaluation to Policy Design","authors":"M. J. Williams","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lky010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lky010","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 With the growing number of impact evaluations worldwide, the question of how to apply this evidence in policy making processes has arguably become the main challenge for evidence-based policy making. How can policy makers predict whether a policy will have the same impact in their context as it did elsewhere, and how should this influence the policy’s design and implementation? This paper suggests that failures of external validity (both in transporting and scaling up policy) can be understood as arising from an interaction between a policy’s theory of change and a dimension of the context in which it is being implemented. The paper surveys existing approaches to analyzing external validity, and suggests that there has been more focus on the generalizability of impact evaluation results than on the applicability of evidence to specific contexts. To help fill this gap, the study develops a method of “mechanism mapping” that maps a policy’s theory of change against salient contextual assumptions to identify external validity problems and suggest appropriate policy adaptations. In deciding whether and how to adapt a policy, there is a fundamental informational trade-off between the strength of evidence on the policy from other contexts and the policy maker’s information about the local context.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/wbro/lky010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43745129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 26

What Explains Uneven Female Labor Force Participation Levels and Trends in Developing Countries? 如何解释发展中国家女性劳动力参与水平和趋势的不平衡?

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKZ005

Stephan Klasen

{"title":"What Explains Uneven Female Labor Force Participation Levels and Trends in Developing Countries?","authors":"Stephan Klasen","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKZ005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKZ005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Rapid fertility decline, a strong expansion of female education, and favorable economic conditions should have promoted female labor force participation in developing countries. Yet trends in female labor force participation rates (FLFP) have been quite heterogeneous, rising strongly in Latin America and stagnating in many other regions, while improvements were modest in the Middle East and female participation even fell in South Asia. These trends are inconsistent with secular theories such as the feminization U hypothesis but point to an interplay of initial conditions, economic structure, structural change, and persistent gender norms and values. We find that differences in levels are heavily affected by historical differences in economic structure that circumscribe women's economic opportunities still today. Shocks can bring about drastic changes, with the experience of socialism being the most important shock to women's labor force participation. Trends are heavily affected by how much women's labor force participation depends on their household's economic conditions, how jobs deemed appropriate for more educated women are growing relative to the supply of more educated women, whether growth strategies are promoting female employment, and to what extent women are able to break down occupational barriers within the sectors where women predominantly work.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/WBRO/LKZ005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48883724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 152

Globalization and Structural Change around the World, 1985–2015 全球化与全球结构变化，1985-2015

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY009

A. Wood

引用次数: 9

The World Bank Human Capital Index: A Guide 世界银行人力资本指数：指南

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKZ001

Aart C. Kraay

引用次数: 39

Changing Behavioral Patterns Related to Maternity and Childbirth in Rural and Poor Populations: A Critical Review 在农村和贫困人口中改变与生育有关的行为模式:一个重要的回顾

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY008

Ariadna García-Prado

引用次数: 8

Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers: Review of the Evidence 有条件现金转移的长期影响：证据审查

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY005

T. Millán, T. Barham, K. Macours, J. Maluccio, M. Stampini

{"title":"Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers: Review of the Evidence","authors":"T. Millán, T. Barham, K. Macours, J. Maluccio, M. Stampini","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKY005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKY005","url":null,"abstract":"Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs, started in the late 1990s in Latin America, have become the antipoverty program of choice in many developing countries in the region and beyond. This paper reviews the literature on their long-term impacts on human capital and related outcomes observed after children have reached a later stage of their life cycle, focusing on two life-cycle transitions. The first includes children exposed to CCTs in utero or during early childhood who have reached school ages. The second includes children exposed to CCTs during school ages who have reached young adulthood. Most studies find positive long-term effects on schooling, but fewer find positive impacts on cognitive skills, learning, or socio-emotional skills. Impacts on employment and earnings are mixed, possibly because former beneficiaries were often still too young. A number of studies find estimates that are not statistically different from zero, but for which it is often not possible to be confident that this is due to an actual lack of impact rather than to the methodological challenges facing all long-term evaluations. Developing further opportunities for analyses with rigorous identification strategies for the measurement of long-term impacts should be high on the research agenda. As original beneficiaries age, this should also be increasingly possible, and indeed important before concluding whether or not CCTs lead to sustainable poverty reduction.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/WBRO/LKY005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44603891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 103

Myth-Busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa 打破神话？直面关于无条件现金转移作为非洲减贫战略的六种常见看法

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/wbro/lky003

S. Handa, S. Daidone, Amber Peterman, B. Davis, Audrey Pereira, T. Palermo, J. Yablonski

{"title":"Myth-Busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa","authors":"S. Handa, S. Daidone, Amber Peterman, B. Davis, Audrey Pereira, T. Palermo, J. Yablonski","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lky003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lky003","url":null,"abstract":"This paper summarizes evidence on six perceptions associated with cash transfer programming, using eight rigorous evaluations conducted on large-scale government unconditional cash transfers in sub-Saharan Africa under the Transfer Project. Specifically, it investigates if transfers: 1) induce higher spending on alcohol or tobacco; 2) are fully consumed (rather than invested); 3) create dependency (reduce participation in productive activities); 4) increase fertility; 5) lead to negative community-level economic impacts (including price distortion and inflation); and 6) are fiscally unsustainable. The paper presents evidence refuting each claim, leading to the conclusion that these perceptions—insofar as they are utilized in policy debates—undercut potential improvements in well-being and livelihood strengthening among the poor, which these programs can bring about in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally. It concludes by underscoring outstanding research gaps and policy implications for the continued expansion of unconditional cash transfers in the region and beyond.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"33 1","pages":"259 - 298"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/wbro/lky003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42905526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 84

Mobile Money and the Economy: A Review of the Evidence 移动货币与经济：证据综述

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY001

J. Aron

引用次数: 97

A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 低收入和中等收入国家现金转移和亲密伴侣暴力的混合方法研究

IF 8.1 1区经济学

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2018-03-23 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY002

A. Buller, Amber Peterman, M. Ranganathan, A. Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, L. Heise

{"title":"A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries","authors":"A. Buller, Amber Peterman, M. Ranganathan, A. Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, L. Heise","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKY002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKY002","url":null,"abstract":"There is increasing evidence that cash transfer (CT) programs decrease intimate partner violence (IPV); however, little is known about how CTs achieve this impact. We conducted a mixed method review of studies in low- and middle-income countries. Fourteen quantitative and nine qualitative studies met our inclusion criteria, of which eleven and six respectively demonstrated evidence that CTs decrease IPV. We found little support for increases in IPV, with only two studies showing overall mixed or adverse impacts. Drawing on these studies, as well as related bodies of evidence, we developed a program theory proposing three pathways through which CT could impact IPV: 1) Economic security and emotional wellbeing, 2) intra-household conflict, and 3) women’s empowerment. The economic security and wellbeing pathway hypothesizes decreases in IPV, while the other two pathways have ambiguous effects depending on program design features and behavioural responses to program components. Future studies should improve IPV measurement, empirical analysis of program mechanisms, and fill regional gaps. Program framing and complementary activities, including those with the ability to shift intra-household power relations are likely to be important design features for understanding how to maximize and leverage the impact of CTs for reducing IPV, and mitigating potential adverse impacts.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2018-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/WBRO/LKY002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45044546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 186