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Interest rate, price level, and the inflation rate: Evidence from the UK during the gold standard regimes 利率、价格水平和通货膨胀率:来自金本位制度下英国的证据
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12454
Taufiq Choudhry
{"title":"Interest rate, price level, and the inflation rate: Evidence from the UK during the gold standard regimes","authors":"Taufiq Choudhry","doi":"10.1111/manc.12454","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12454","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper empirically investigates the Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect for the UK during different metallic and non-metallic regimes. The paper applies long-span monthly data on the long-term interest rate and the price index from 1790 to 1931. The ARDL cointegration is employed to study the long-term relationship. Significant evidence is provided for the paradox during the uninterrupted gold standard era of the UK (1821–1914). We also find evidence of the paradox during the short-term gold exchange standard era (1925–1931). Further results also confirm the Fisher Effect during the 1821–1914 period, providing some backing to its ability to explain the paradox. This is further asserted by the short-run mutual influence between the rate of interest and the inflation rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"92 1","pages":"20-39"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91229973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Do financial markets predict macroeconomic performance? US evidence from risk-based measures 金融市场能预测宏观经济表现吗？基于风险的措施的美国证据
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-07-07 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12451
David G. McMillan
{"title":"Do financial markets predict macroeconomic performance? US evidence from risk-based measures","authors":"David G. McMillan","doi":"10.1111/manc.12451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12451","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Financial markets are expected to predict macroeconomic conditions as movement in the former depends upon expectations of future performance for the latter. However, existing evidence is mixed. We argue that this arises because the stock return and term structure series typically used in studies, fail to sufficiently capture investor risk preferences. For US data, we use the variance risk premium (VRP) and default yield (DFY) to better capture such a risk measure and demonstrate that these variables exhibit greater evidence of predictive power for key macroeconomic series. In addition to VRP and DFY, we include further variables that may also capture market risk. Given similar dynamics between different risk measures and the potential for multicollinearity in estimation, we consider variable combinations. Using results obtained through predictive regressions, out-of-sample forecasting and a probit model designed to capture periods of expansion and contraction, we show that these combination variables can predict future movements in macroeconomic conditions as well as results using individual variables. Of key interest, combinations that include the VRP and DFY are preferred across all macro-series.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 5","pages":"439-466"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12451","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50124015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Real interest rate parity in practice: Evidence from Asia-pacific economies 实际利率平价：来自亚太经济体的证据
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12452
Ming-Jen Chang, Shikuan Chen, Chih-Chung Chien
{"title":"Real interest rate parity in practice: Evidence from Asia-pacific economies","authors":"Ming-Jen Chang,&nbsp;Shikuan Chen,&nbsp;Chih-Chung Chien","doi":"10.1111/manc.12452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12452","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This research investigates the relationship between real interest rate parity and the interest parity puzzle across several economies in the Asia-Pacific region. Unlike previous studies, we establish a comprehensive theoretical framework for parity and utilize macroeconomic and financial market data from 15 economies in the region to examine it. Our findings indicate that most countries exhibit mild deviations from parity, with real interest rate differentials strongly correlated with changes in the real exchange rate and interest-exchange rate interaction terms, particularly in middle-income economies. While interest parity puzzle is also observed in high-income economies, it is less prevalent in most middle-income economies. Our analysis reveals that income levels are key drivers of deviations from parity in this model, with interaction terms also playing a crucial role in most cases. The implication here is that for carry trades, investors place significant importance on risk factors, especially in economies with relatively low risk. This insight helps to clarify a puzzle in this area. Therefore, it is imperative that investors should take into account the impact of interest-exchange rate interaction terms when making carry trade decisions. Lastly, we underscore the significance of ex ante price forecast approaches in achieving parity.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 6","pages":"614-641"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50133331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A rent-limiting design of professional self-regulation 职业自律的租金限制设计
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12453
Krzysztof Szczygielski
{"title":"A rent-limiting design of professional self-regulation","authors":"Krzysztof Szczygielski","doi":"10.1111/manc.12453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12453","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We consider a government that purchases a public good or a private good for public consumption from a heterogenous group of professionals (such as scientists, doctors, or lawyers) in an environment characterized by an extremely high level of information asymmetry. Specifically, we assume that the government needs information from a self-regulatory organization (SRO) of agents (such as a research council, a medical board, or a bar association) to draft the contract. We show that the government information disadvantage is minimized when the SRO is dictatorial, that is, when it follows the preferences of the efficient agents.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 6","pages":"570-586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50148528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Notes on excess entry theorem in a Kantian oligopoly 关于Kantian寡头垄断中超额进入定理的注记
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-06-17 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12450
Yasuhiko Nakamura
{"title":"Notes on excess entry theorem in a Kantian oligopoly","authors":"Yasuhiko Nakamura","doi":"10.1111/manc.12450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12450","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study revisits the excess entry theorem for quantity and price competition with substitutes and complements in a Kantian oligopoly. In such an oligopoly, we demonstrate that the equilibrium market outcomes are the same between the aforementioned two types of competition regimes with substitutes and complements, and in particular, each firm's equilibrium price and consumer surplus do not depend on the number of firms. Therefore, in quantity and price competition with substitutes and complements in a Kantian oligopoly, the excess entry theorem holds that the number of firms is larger under free entry than under the second-best social optimality. Finally, in the two types of competition with substitutes and complements, we characterize the ranking orders of the number of firms between free entry and the second-best social optimality in Kantian and Nashian oligopolies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 5","pages":"506-519"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50135980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A note on the social efficiency of free entry in Cournot oligopoly in a pure network goods market 论纯网络商品市场中古诺寡头垄断的自由进入的社会效率
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12447
Tsuyoshi Toshimitsu
{"title":"A note on the social efficiency of free entry in Cournot oligopoly in a pure network goods market","authors":"Tsuyoshi Toshimitsu","doi":"10.1111/manc.12447","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12447","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore the social efficiency of free entry in a pure network goods market where Cournot oligopolistic competition prevails and consumers have passive expectations. Focusing on network compatibility between firms, we consider the cases of two network systems: a firm-specific system and a single industry-wide network system. We demonstrate the following results. In the firm-specific network system, the number of firms under free entry is socially excessive compared with the second-best criteria. However, in the single industry-wide network system, if the elasticity of network effects in relation to the expected network sizes is sufficiently large, the number of firms under free entry is socially insufficient compared with the second-best criteria. Otherwise, socially excessive entry arises. We also examine the same issue in the case of a mixed network goods market.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"92 1","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84487552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Behavior-based price discrimination in the domestic and international mixed duopoly 国内外混合双寡头垄断中基于行为的价格歧视
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12448
Suzuka Okuyama
{"title":"Behavior-based price discrimination in the domestic and international mixed duopoly","authors":"Suzuka Okuyama","doi":"10.1111/manc.12448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12448","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates mixed markets in which a social welfare-maximizing public firm and a private firm engage in behavior-based price discrimination (BBPD). A total of two cases are considered: one where domestic shareholders completely own the private firm and one where foreign shareholders completely own it. In the domestic mixed duopoly, BBPD is irrelevant from the viewpoint of domestic social welfare. This is because poaching does not occur. In the international mixed duopoly, BBPD improves domestic social welfare, as BBPD reduces the outflow of the private firm's profit to foreign shareholders. In both cases, privatization is more undesirable under BBPD than uniform pricing.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 5","pages":"482-505"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50130578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Property rights enforcement and wage inequality 产权强制执行与工资不平等
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12449
Jiancai Pi, Pengqing Zhang
{"title":"Property rights enforcement and wage inequality","authors":"Jiancai Pi,&nbsp;Pengqing Zhang","doi":"10.1111/manc.12449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12449","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper establishes a general equilibrium model to investigate how property rights enforcement impacts wage inequality when unproductive and productive activities coexist. We consider enforcement funded by a gross income tax, a labor tax, or a capital tax, and find that in all of the three schemes, when property rights enforcement is relatively efficient and the skilled sector is more capital intensive than the unskilled sector, an increase in enforcement will decrease wage inequality. However, the critical values of property rights enforcement efficiency under the three funding sources are different. In particular, the critical value in the scheme of a capital tax is always smaller than that in the scheme of a gross income tax, which suggests that if the skilled sector is more capital intensive than the unskilled sector, switching the funding sources of enforcement from a gross income tax to a capital tax can help mitigate wage inequality.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 5","pages":"467-481"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50123930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial agglomeration or dispersion under Cournot-Bertrand competition 古诺-伯特兰竞争下的空间集聚或分散
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-05-16 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12440
Hsiao-Chi Chen, Shi-Miin Liu, Sung-Chi Lin
{"title":"Spatial agglomeration or dispersion under Cournot-Bertrand competition","authors":"Hsiao-Chi Chen,&nbsp;Shi-Miin Liu,&nbsp;Sung-Chi Lin","doi":"10.1111/manc.12440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12440","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This research explores the equilibria of a spatial model with consumers having finite reservation prices and two firms under Cournot-Bertrand competition. We find three types of equilibria. For high effective reservation prices, a unique equilibrium exists with spatially agglomerating firms serving all consumers. For medium effective reservation prices, the intermediate-location-differentiation firms serve all consumers at equilibria. For low effective reservation prices, the firms act as two monopolists and do not serve all consumers at equilibria. The results herein and from previous studies together demonstrate that changing one of two Bertrand (Cournot) firms to Cournot-type (Bertrand-type) can make the minimum-location-differentiation equilibrium appear (disappear). Moreover, both firms' location distances at our intermediate-location-differentiation equilibria are always larger than those at the equilibria of firms' price competition.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 5","pages":"414-438"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50151478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environment, alcohol intoxication and overconfidence: Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment 环境、酒精中毒和过度自信：来自实验室实地实验的证据
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12439
Iain W. Long, Kent Matthews, Vaseekaran Sivarajasingam
{"title":"Environment, alcohol intoxication and overconfidence: Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment","authors":"Iain W. Long,&nbsp;Kent Matthews,&nbsp;Vaseekaran Sivarajasingam","doi":"10.1111/manc.12439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12439","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Alcohol has long been known as the demon drink; an epithet owed to the numerous social ills it is associated with. Our lab-in-the-field experiment assesses the extent to which changes in intoxication and an individual's environment lead to changes in overconfidence or cognitive ability that are, in turn, often linked to problematic behaviours. Results indicate that it is the joint effect of being intoxicated <i>in a bar</i>, rather than simply being intoxicated, that matters. Subjects systematically underestimated the magnitude of their behavioural changes, suggesting that they cannot be held fully accountable for their actions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"91 5","pages":"389-413"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12439","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50121105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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