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Successful Central Banks Can Afford to Pay Scant Attention to Money
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12506
Papadia Francesco, Cadamuro Leonardo
{"title":"Successful Central Banks Can Afford to Pay Scant Attention to Money","authors":"Papadia Francesco,&nbsp;Cadamuro Leonardo","doi":"10.1111/manc.12506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12506","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the last few decades, central bankers and economists have paid little attention to monetary aggregates, in contrast with the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s. Our evidence shows that monetary aggregates lose relevance when central banks maintain low and stable inflation, as has occurred in recent decades. However, to move from unstable to stable inflation, our findings also show that attention to monetary aggregates is needed. Our findings help resolve the long-standing controversy about the importance of monetary aggregates for the conduct of monetary policy: monetary aggregates are vital to move from unstable to stable inflation but lose relevance once a central bank has consistently reached price stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"199-215"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12506","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade Policy in a Third-Country Model With Kantian Optimization
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12503
Leonard F. S. Wang, Di Wu, Can Yang
{"title":"Trade Policy in a Third-Country Model With Kantian Optimization","authors":"Leonard F. S. Wang,&nbsp;Di Wu,&nbsp;Can Yang","doi":"10.1111/manc.12503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12503","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We address the issue of trade policies in a Kantian equilibrium. We find that “in principle” at Kantian equilibrium between the exporting countries, the trade policy is export tax. A Kantian equilibrium between the exporting countries leads to the lowest importing countries' consumer surplus, exporting firms' profits and global welfare, while the social welfare of the exporting countries is the highest. On the contrary, A Kantian equilibrium between the exporting firms leads to the highest importing countries' consumer surplus, exporting firms' profits and global welfare. The stability analysis demonstrates the robustness of our findings within an oligopoly comprising multiple exporters.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"191-198"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A GVAR Approach
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12502
Luccas Assis Attílio, André Varella Mollick
{"title":"Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A GVAR Approach","authors":"Luccas Assis Attílio,&nbsp;André Varella Mollick","doi":"10.1111/manc.12502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12502","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We investigate the effects of oil price shocks on industrial and emerging market economies. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with 19 economies from 1999M1 to 2022M3. Our sample evaluates output responses of each country to the same global shock, defined in several ways. While we find that domestic prices and interest rates in industrial economies respond to the WTI real oil price shock, the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) tend to be not statistically significant in emerging economies. Stock markets increase in the first months for the oil producers but have negative values in the long-run. The oil price shock causes a generalized fall in industrial production and loses importance over time. We reinforce our results by identifying the oil shock using the structural GIRF (SGIRF) following a causal ordering from oil to real output. When we decompose WTI into either supply or demand shocks, industrial production declines in the short-run due to supply shocks but increases in response to oil demand shocks. Our results are very robust, especially in industrial economies when allowing for time-varying bilateral trade. Underscoring the importance of identifying oil price shocks, the oil price shock pushes inflation up, prompting the central bank's response in policy rates.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"170-190"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of wealth inequality on inflation and unfair competition among consumers
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12500
Esat Daşdemir
{"title":"The impact of wealth inequality on inflation and unfair competition among consumers","authors":"Esat Daşdemir","doi":"10.1111/manc.12500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12500","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines unfair competition among consumers according to wealth groups. The study hypothesizes that consumer groups with high income and wealth levels have a competitive advantage over consumer groups with low income and wealth levels, and therefore wealth inequality may create upward pressure on prices. Data from 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries covering 2000–2022 were used in the analysis. According to the results of the analysis, increases in the wealth of high-wealth groups increase the inflation rate more severely.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"149-169"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job satisfaction and workplace representation in Europe 欧洲的工作满意度和工作场所代表性
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12499
John T. Addison, Paulino Teixeira
{"title":"Job satisfaction and workplace representation in Europe","authors":"John T. Addison,&nbsp;Paulino Teixeira","doi":"10.1111/manc.12499","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12499","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The backdrop to this inquiry into the relationship between worker job satisfaction and workplace representation in European nations is twofold. The first is that the bulk of research has focused on union membership and job satisfaction in Anglophone nations with their very different industrial relations systems and bargaining arrangements. The second and more immediate context is the dramatic shift from negative to positive in the association between union membership and job satisfaction (inter al.) observed in the most recent literature. Using data on 28 European nations from the last two waves of the European Working Conditions Survey, however, we report that workers in establishments with <i>formal workplace representation</i> record lower job satisfaction than their counterparts in plants without such representation. These findings of conditional correlation are then upgraded by constructing a pseudo-panel with cohort fixed effects to take account of unobserved worker heterogeneity. First-difference estimates suggest that the negative relationship between worker representation and job satisfaction found in cross section continues to hold. Next, an endogenous treatment effects model is deployed to address the possible endogeneity of worker representation. The results are supportive of a causal negative relationship between job satisfaction and worker representation. One interpretation of our findings is that in the matter of the association between unions and job satisfaction the jury is still out.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"123-148"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142198901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Equilibrium vertical structure with a common supplier 有共同供应商的均衡垂直结构
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12498
Kangsik Choi, Sangheon Han, DongJoon Lee
{"title":"Equilibrium vertical structure with a common supplier","authors":"Kangsik Choi,&nbsp;Sangheon Han,&nbsp;DongJoon Lee","doi":"10.1111/manc.12498","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12498","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We consider a vertically related market, in which each downstream firm produces a differentiated product by assembling a key input produced by a common supplier and another input produced by a dedicated upstream firm. On the one hand, vertical integration has the advantage of inducing the common supplier to set a lower input price, but the disadvantage of reducing downstream firms' competitiveness in the downstream market. On the other hand, vertical separation has the advantage of increasing downstream firms' competitiveness in the downstream market but the disadvantage of inducing the common supplier to set a higher input price. Contrary to results of previous studies, we find that the existence of a common supplier can lead to vertical integration under Cournot competition, which emerges as a unique equilibrium when a common supplier adopts input discrimination. Although vertical integration is better for the individual firms, it reduces the total welfare. Even when the common supplier uses uniform input pricing, vertical integration also emerges in equilibrium.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"103-122"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Did 2004 EU expansion matter to new migrants' housing tenure and settlement choices in England? 2004 年欧盟扩张对新移民在英格兰的住房保有权和定居选择有影响吗？
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12496
Sarah Jewell, Anupam Nanda, Olayiwola Oladiran
{"title":"Did 2004 EU expansion matter to new migrants' housing tenure and settlement choices in England?","authors":"Sarah Jewell,&nbsp;Anupam Nanda,&nbsp;Olayiwola Oladiran","doi":"10.1111/manc.12496","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12496","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyses how migration policy changes affect the housing and location patterns of immigrants in the UK. Using the UK Longitudinal Household Survey, we examine the relationship between the 2004 EU accession as a migration policy change and housing and locational patterns. In addition to confirming the importance of migration policy frameworks, we find that liberalised migration can create a wave of immigrants with a lower propensity for homeownership and may cause the dispersion of new immigrants to locations away from the gateway cities and primary immigrant clusters such as London. The results are robust to several sensitivity tests.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 1","pages":"83-102"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12496","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141741080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Online shopping and rural-urban wage inequality 网上购物与城乡工资不平等
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12497
Jiancai Pi, Xinyi Liu
{"title":"Online shopping and rural-urban wage inequality","authors":"Jiancai Pi,&nbsp;Xinyi Liu","doi":"10.1111/manc.12497","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12497","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper takes online shopping into consideration, and constructs general equilibrium models to analyze how consumers' dependence on online shopping affects rural-urban skilled-unskilled wage inequality. We find that when consumers' dependence on online shopping increases, wage inequality can be conditionally narrowed down, depending on the unskilled labor intensity in the urban manufacturing sector and the possible elasticity of the contract price.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 1","pages":"70-82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141741081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption response to aggregate shocks and the role of leverage 消费对总体冲击的反应及杠杆作用
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12495
Agnes Kovacs, May Rostom, Philip Bunn
{"title":"Consumption response to aggregate shocks and the role of leverage","authors":"Agnes Kovacs,&nbsp;May Rostom,&nbsp;Philip Bunn","doi":"10.1111/manc.12495","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12495","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the relationship between mortgage leverage and consumption around the 2008 financial crisis. Using data from the UK's Family Expenditure Survey and Wealth and Asset Survey, we first show that high-leveraged households made larger cuts to consumption following the financial crisis, and this was largely driven by young households. Second, using a life-cycle framework, we qualitatively evaluate four possible channels that could explain the observed positive relationship between consumption and leverage: income, uncertainty, credit supply and house price channels. Our key finding is that credit supply tightening is the main driver of the empirical co-movement between pre-crisis leverage and consumption growth after 2008.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 1","pages":"30-69"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12495","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impacts of exchange rate on US adjusted bilateral trade balance with Germany under Brexit: A comparative analysis 英国脱欧下汇率对美国与德国调整后双边贸易平衡的影响：比较分析
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12494
Serdar Ongan, Ismet Gocer, Huseyin Karamelikli
{"title":"The impacts of exchange rate on US adjusted bilateral trade balance with Germany under Brexit: A comparative analysis","authors":"Serdar Ongan,&nbsp;Ismet Gocer,&nbsp;Huseyin Karamelikli","doi":"10.1111/manc.12494","DOIUrl":"10.1111/manc.12494","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study reveals the hidden dynamics of USA-Germany international trade through a revised J-curve hypothesis. It emphasizes the inadequacy of the traditional Bilateral Trade Balance (BTB) ratio based on total exports. To this aim, it introduces two new testing approaches based on adjusted BTB: the GDP-driven-BTB-based J-curve hypothesis (GDPJ) and the Non-GDP-driven-BTB-based J-curve hypothesis (NGDPJ). The empirical findings advocate the necessity of these alternative tests, offering policymakers more informative results than the traditional approach. GDPJ is validated for 13 goods, while NGDPJ and traditional methods are validated for 10 and 8 goods. These results underscore the risks of solely relying on the traditional approach. By embracing the revised J-curve hypothesis and alternative BTBs, policymakers can gain deeper insights into the USA-Germany trade relationship. One interpretation is that, under Brexit, German consumers reduce their purchases of re-exported goods more than domestically produced goods from the US.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 1","pages":"1-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141352135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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