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Trade Variations due to Time Zones Related Distance and Delaying Costs: A Theoretical Exposition 时区相关距离和延迟成本导致的贸易差异：一个理论论述
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12511
Biswajit Mandal, Maitrayee Das
{"title":"Trade Variations due to Time Zones Related Distance and Delaying Costs: A Theoretical Exposition","authors":"Biswajit Mandal,&nbsp;Maitrayee Das","doi":"10.1111/manc.12511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12511","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper constructs a competitive trade model involving countries in two distinct time zone locations. Our results suggest that geographical distance positively impact service trade, in contrast to its harmful nature for goods trade. These results are not in line with the traditional gravity arguments of international trade. Our model also reveals an intriguing relationship: an increase in distance between trading nations results in higher skilled wages and lower rent in case of service trade, while goods trade yields the opposite effect. We then connect distance with delaying cost and find the effects of delaying cost on trade and factor prices. We further extend our basic model to introduce informal sector and government manufacturing sector. Despite these additions, the consistency in the effects of distance on factor prices and output persists.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"289-303"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Fixed or Variable Rate Loan Decision: Which Small Businesses Prefer the Certainty of Fixed Rate Loans and Which Banks Offer Them? 固定利率或浮动利率贷款的决定：哪些小企业更喜欢固定利率贷款的确定性，哪些银行提供？
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12509
Marc Cowling, Kit Pong Wong
{"title":"The Fixed or Variable Rate Loan Decision: Which Small Businesses Prefer the Certainty of Fixed Rate Loans and Which Banks Offer Them?","authors":"Marc Cowling,&nbsp;Kit Pong Wong","doi":"10.1111/manc.12509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12509","url":null,"abstract":"<p>If a small business expects that interest rates will rise in the future then it is rational to insure oneself against this by accepting a fixed rate loan. In addition, small firms may prefer the certainty of fixed interest payments throughout the term of a loan. However, banks may prefer to offer variable rate loans as this insures them against volatility and uncertainty of their funding cost and shifts risk to the borrower. In this paper we empirically analyse what types of lending institutions offer fixed rate loans and what types of small firms accept them using a large UK data set from 2009–2020 covering government guaranteed loans. We initially found that fixed rate loans are more expensive than variable rate loans on average, and that larger firms and those taking out longer maturity loans were more likely to take out fixed rate loans. In contrast, larger size loans were more likely to be issued on a variable interest rate and by a larger lending institution. As large banks made greater returns from fixed rate loans, they increased use of them over the decade to favoured borrowers suggesting that regret aversion also played a role in the bank's decision and also that macroeconomic conditions were improving after the Global Financial Crisis.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"267-280"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12509","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation Persistence in the G7: The Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine War 七国集团的持续通货膨胀：Covid-19大流行和俄乌战争的影响
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12507
Nuruddeen Usman, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
{"title":"Inflation Persistence in the G7: The Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine War","authors":"Nuruddeen Usman,&nbsp;Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana","doi":"10.1111/manc.12507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12507","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This note analyses how shocks caused by the Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine crisis impact on inflation persistence G7 countries. Using data ending at December-2019, high estimates of the persistence parameter <i>d</i> indicate a strong persistence of inflation. The unit root hypothesis could not be refuted for Germany, Japan, and the United States, while this hypothesis is rejected in favour of higher orders of integration in the remaining cases. Expanding the dataset to include the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis reveal that d-values remain significantly elevated across all countries, reinforcing the persistence of inflation. Interestingly, Canada, previously excluded from the group, now aligns with Germany, Japan, and the United States. This suggests a change in inflation dynamics for Canada during these extraordinary periods. Additionally, employing a recursive estimate reveals a slight increase in inflation persistence for most countries, except Japan, which exhibits an almost flat trend in the evolution of the differencing parameter.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"281-288"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12507","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Uncertainty in Energy and Cryptocurrency Markets: Is Gold Really a Safe Haven? 能源和加密货币市场的不确定性：黄金真的是避风港吗？
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12510
Shuangshuang Chang, Meng Qin, Chi Wei Su
{"title":"The Uncertainty in Energy and Cryptocurrency Markets: Is Gold Really a Safe Haven?","authors":"Shuangshuang Chang,&nbsp;Meng Qin,&nbsp;Chi Wei Su","doi":"10.1111/manc.12510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12510","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Investigating gold's safe-haven status is crucial to stabilising energy and cryptocurrency markets. To capture the dynamic relationships between energy-related uncertainty (ERU), gold prices (GP), and cryptocurrency policy uncertainty (CPOU), this study employs the TVP-SV-VAR methodology. Through quantitative analysis, we find ERU has favourable and unfavourable effects on GP. The favourable impact underscores gold's safe-haven role against energy market uncertainty. At the same time, the negative impact contradicts this view and theoretical models, likely due to the U.S. dollar's value and gold's hedging performance against other uncertainties. CPOU, however, positively impacts GP, supporting gold's safe-haven characteristics against uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market and aligning with theoretical predictions. Gold's safe-haven status in the cryptocurrency market is comparably more consistent but slightly less significant. Additionally, this study validates the findings by substituting CPOU with cryptocurrency price uncertainty (CPRU), confirming their robustness. Given the high volatility in energy and cryptocurrency markets, this article offers valuable insights for authorities to maximise profits and ensure stable growth.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"254-266"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Simple Model of Intergenerational Mobility Under the Heterogeneous Effects of Public Expenditure 公共支出异质性效应下代际流动的简单模型
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12508
Lifeng Zhang, Yanhua Xu
{"title":"A Simple Model of Intergenerational Mobility Under the Heterogeneous Effects of Public Expenditure","authors":"Lifeng Zhang,&nbsp;Yanhua Xu","doi":"10.1111/manc.12508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12508","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper analyzes the relationships among intergenerational mobility, human capital and public expenditure. We propose to incorporate the heterogeneous effects of public expenditure into a standard overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation. We show that these heterogeneous effects alter the shape of the relationships among intergenerational mobility, human capital and public expenditure in a way that has new policy implications. First, intergenerational mobility depends on the heterogeneous effects of public expenditure. Second, the relationship between public expenditure and intergenerational mobility can be either positive or negative. Third, public expenditure produces a non-monotonic effect on human capital. We find that when fiscal policy increases intergenerational mobility, the level of human capital may decrease. The government may therefore face a trade-off between fostering intergenerational mobility and increasing the level of human capital through public expenditure.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"242-253"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
External Effect of Entry 进入的外部效应
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12501
Steffen Ziss
{"title":"External Effect of Entry","authors":"Steffen Ziss","doi":"10.1111/manc.12501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12501","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides an analysis of the external effect of entry for both differentiated and homogenous products which takes account of the integer constraint, allows for cost-based or quality-based differences in firm size and for variation in firm conduct. The analysis shows that the external effect of entry is positive if the entrant is sufficiently large compared to the average incumbent, but not necessarily larger than the average incumbent, market conduct is competitive, there are few incumbents, marginal cost is steep relative to demand or products are sufficiently differentiated. These results contribute to the literature by expanding the set of market settings for which the external effect of entry is positive and thus for which profitable entry raises welfare.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"230-241"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12501","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Estimates of Insider Trading in Sports Betting 关于体育博彩内幕交易的估计
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12505
Karl Whelan
{"title":"On Estimates of Insider Trading in Sports Betting","authors":"Karl Whelan","doi":"10.1111/manc.12505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12505","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Several researchers have reported estimates of the fraction of money placed on sports betting by “insiders” with superior information to bookmakers. We show the method for estimating the fraction of insiders used in this research is only accurate under highly unrealistic conditions and that these estimates will tend to be positive in realistic cases where there are no insiders. We also argue that variations in these estimates are unlikely to be related to variations in the amount of inside information but rather are more likely due to other factors such as variations in bookmakers' costs or the extent of competition in betting markets.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"217-229"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12505","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Successful Central Banks Can Afford to Pay Scant Attention to Money 成功的央行可以承担对货币不够关注的后果
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12506
Papadia Francesco, Cadamuro Leonardo
{"title":"Successful Central Banks Can Afford to Pay Scant Attention to Money","authors":"Papadia Francesco,&nbsp;Cadamuro Leonardo","doi":"10.1111/manc.12506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12506","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the last few decades, central bankers and economists have paid little attention to monetary aggregates, in contrast with the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s. Our evidence shows that monetary aggregates lose relevance when central banks maintain low and stable inflation, as has occurred in recent decades. However, to move from unstable to stable inflation, our findings also show that attention to monetary aggregates is needed. Our findings help resolve the long-standing controversy about the importance of monetary aggregates for the conduct of monetary policy: monetary aggregates are vital to move from unstable to stable inflation but lose relevance once a central bank has consistently reached price stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"199-215"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.12506","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade Policy in a Third-Country Model With Kantian Optimization 基于康德最优化的第三国贸易政策模型
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12503
Leonard F. S. Wang, Di Wu, Can Yang
{"title":"Trade Policy in a Third-Country Model With Kantian Optimization","authors":"Leonard F. S. Wang,&nbsp;Di Wu,&nbsp;Can Yang","doi":"10.1111/manc.12503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12503","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We address the issue of trade policies in a Kantian equilibrium. We find that “in principle” at Kantian equilibrium between the exporting countries, the trade policy is export tax. A Kantian equilibrium between the exporting countries leads to the lowest importing countries' consumer surplus, exporting firms' profits and global welfare, while the social welfare of the exporting countries is the highest. On the contrary, A Kantian equilibrium between the exporting firms leads to the highest importing countries' consumer surplus, exporting firms' profits and global welfare. The stability analysis demonstrates the robustness of our findings within an oligopoly comprising multiple exporters.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"191-198"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A GVAR Approach 油价冲击与宏观经济波动：GVAR方法
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12502
Luccas Assis Attílio, André Varella Mollick
{"title":"Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A GVAR Approach","authors":"Luccas Assis Attílio,&nbsp;André Varella Mollick","doi":"10.1111/manc.12502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12502","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We investigate the effects of oil price shocks on industrial and emerging market economies. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with 19 economies from 1999M1 to 2022M3. Our sample evaluates output responses of each country to the same global shock, defined in several ways. While we find that domestic prices and interest rates in industrial economies respond to the WTI real oil price shock, the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) tend to be not statistically significant in emerging economies. Stock markets increase in the first months for the oil producers but have negative values in the long-run. The oil price shock causes a generalized fall in industrial production and loses importance over time. We reinforce our results by identifying the oil shock using the structural GIRF (SGIRF) following a causal ordering from oil to real output. When we decompose WTI into either supply or demand shocks, industrial production declines in the short-run due to supply shocks but increases in response to oil demand shocks. Our results are very robust, especially in industrial economies when allowing for time-varying bilateral trade. Underscoring the importance of identifying oil price shocks, the oil price shock pushes inflation up, prompting the central bank's response in policy rates.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 2","pages":"170-190"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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