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Contemporary Economic Policy最新文献

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Inflation target credibility and the Taylor rule 通胀目标可信度和泰勒法则
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70028
Dieter Nautz
{"title":"Inflation target credibility and the Taylor rule","authors":"Dieter Nautz","doi":"10.1111/coep.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate how the monetary policy of the European Central Bank affects consumers' perceptions about the credibility of the inflation target. Monetary policy is assessed by the gap between the actual policy rate and a Taylor rate to approximate the interest rate expected by the public. Drawing on survey data for German consumers, our results suggest that the massive dent in inflation target credibility observed from 2021 to 2023 could have been ameliorated by a more decisive tightening of monetary policy. Therefore, simple outcome-based interest rate rules may deserve more attention in the communication of monetary policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"689-697"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/coep.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Turkey on the fault line: The impact of the earthquake on the labor market 断层线上的土耳其：地震对劳动力市场的影响
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70018
Serkan Demirkılıç, Zuhal Özbay Daş, Güney Aydin
{"title":"Turkey on the fault line: The impact of the earthquake on the labor market","authors":"Serkan Demirkılıç,&nbsp;Zuhal Özbay Daş,&nbsp;Güney Aydin","doi":"10.1111/coep.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess the impact of the 2011 earthquakes of eastern Turkey on the labor market and the potential resilience strategy by exploring heterogeneity among subgroups. Our findings indicate a rise in low-skilled employment and an increase in the wage rates for low-skilled women following the earthquake. The instant response to earthquakes varies according to the residents' education level. The manufacturing sector was significant in enhancing the workers' resilience. The results further reveal that the return to the family business may have helped to mitigate the negative economic conditions created by the earthquakes.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"698-716"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fortune favors the bold and patient: How economic freedom impacts economic preferences 《财富》青睐大胆而有耐心的人：经济自由如何影响经济偏好
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70021
Ryan Kitzan, Adam Stivers, Nabamita Dutta
{"title":"Fortune favors the bold and patient: How economic freedom impacts economic preferences","authors":"Ryan Kitzan,&nbsp;Adam Stivers,&nbsp;Nabamita Dutta","doi":"10.1111/coep.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the relationship between economic freedom and individual economic preferences, particularly patience and risk tolerance. While patience has been found to result in beneficial outcomes, the findings on the effects of risk tolerance are mixed. Therefore, we investigate the relationship between national levels of patience and risk taking in the presence of varying economic institutions. Our findings suggest that countries with both higher economic freedom and higher risk tolerance also exhibit greater levels of patience. Further, higher levels of risk tolerance do not equate to higher levels of patience in countries with low levels of economic freedom.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"486-514"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of household debt on safety-net participation 家庭债务对社会保障参与的影响
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70023
Timothy Bianco, Nicholas Moellman
{"title":"The effect of household debt on safety-net participation","authors":"Timothy Bianco,&nbsp;Nicholas Moellman","doi":"10.1111/coep.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine how participation in the Food Stamp Program (FSP)/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program responds to changes in state level household debt using administrative, quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. Using dynamic panel models, we find no consistently significant relationship. We argue this fails to capture the systemic structure of the safety-net and household finances. Using a panel vector autoregression to systemically model this relationship shows TANF is generally unresponsive to a one standard deviation shock to debt innovations, while FSP/SNAP participation responds significantly, substantially, and persistently, rising 10.99% cumulatively over 10 quarters.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"576-598"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The social cost of US wildfire carbon emissions 美国野火碳排放的社会成本
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70015
Molly Duddleson Elder
{"title":"The social cost of US wildfire carbon emissions","authors":"Molly Duddleson Elder","doi":"10.1111/coep.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70015","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Combustion during forest fires and decomposition for several decades afterward both release CO<sub>2</sub> into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change, but the large costs imposed on society by these emissions are typically excluded from accounts of wildfire damages. This paper quantifies the social cost of the entire wildfire emissions profile of combustion, post-combustion emissions and regrowth, by incorporating a representative fire emissions vector into the dynamic integrated climate and economy model. The analysis finds that the social costs of temperate fire emissions are approximately $7.8 million per 1000 ha burned (2019 dollars). Back of the envelope calculations incorporating fire severity, and temperate and boreal emissions intensities, yield an average annual cost of $4.6 billion across the entire United States.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"599-617"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Indoor vaccine mandates in U.S. cities, vaccination behavior, and COVID-19 outcomes 美国城市的室内疫苗授权，疫苗接种行为和COVID-19结果
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70016
Vitor Melo, Elijah Neilson, Dorothy Kemboi
{"title":"Indoor vaccine mandates in U.S. cities, vaccination behavior, and COVID-19 outcomes","authors":"Vitor Melo,&nbsp;Elijah Neilson,&nbsp;Dorothy Kemboi","doi":"10.1111/coep.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many U.S. cities introduced indoor vaccine mandates in 2021–2022 to increase COVID-19 vaccination and curb transmission. While national mandates abroad boosted uptake, the effects of city-level mandates in the U.S. remain unclear. Using the synthetic difference-in-differences methodology, we estimate the impact of mandates in nine major cities on first-dose uptake, cases, and deaths. We find no consistent pattern of significant effects, and results are robust across estimators, outcome definitions, lag structures, and donor pool choice. The contrast with international findings suggests localized mandates may be less effective in settings with high baseline coverage, mobility across jurisdictions, and vaccine hesitancy.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"529-548"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nurse practitioner scope of practice law and safety net participation: Evidence from WIC 执业护士执业范围法律和安全网参与：来自WIC的证据
IF 1 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70019
Owen Fleming, Lilly Springer
{"title":"Nurse practitioner scope of practice law and safety net participation: Evidence from WIC","authors":"Owen Fleming,&nbsp;Lilly Springer","doi":"10.1111/coep.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Given that nurse practitioners (NPs) are likely to practice in underserved areas, NP scope of practice reform may have spillover effects on safety net program participation. Leveraging the staggered rollout of NP full practice authority (FPA) across states, we estimate the effect of NP FPA on Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) participation. We find that starting 4–5 years after FPA, WIC participation increases by 4.1%, rising to 7.4% a decade post-FPA. The increase is driven by the enrollment of women and children and may be attributable to the patient-centered care delivery of NPs, which reduces the stigma and information costs associated with WIC participation.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 3","pages":"634-655"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Taxing windfall money: A quasi-experimental study 对意外之财征税：一项准实验研究
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70002
Álvaro Muñiz-Fernández, Levi Pérez
{"title":"Taxing windfall money: A quasi-experimental study","authors":"Álvaro Muñiz-Fernández,&nbsp;Levi Pérez","doi":"10.1111/coep.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines individuals' reaction to windfall income taxation. We take advantage of similar tax reforms on lottery winnings in Portugal and Spain in 2013 to study effects on lottery participation in both countries. Using a Synthetic Difference in Differences approach on a database of 348 draws from EuroMillions, our results indicate that taxation caused a decline in sales by 11.75% in low jackpot draws, with no significant effects for larger jackpots. These findings suggest that individuals fail to adjust their behavior when potential gains are large, likely due to overestimating the likelihood of winning and underestimating the tax burden.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"319-332"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/coep.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147684071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Timing of SNAP disbursement and crime incidence in the United States 在美国，紧急援助计划的支付时间和犯罪率
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70005
Licheng Xu
{"title":"Timing of SNAP disbursement and crime incidence in the United States","authors":"Licheng Xu","doi":"10.1111/coep.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The timing of welfare benefit distribution is critical but often neglected when evaluating the efficacy of welfare programs. Taking the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) as an example, this study explores whether and how variation in the timing of food assistance distribution affects crime incidence. Analyzing crime data from 36 U.S. states (2006–2017) and SNAP administrative data, it finds that more distribution days and a longer staggering period in SNAP reduce financially motivated crime, especially robbery. The most extended schedule could yield a $2.7 million nationwide benefit from fewer robberies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"275-298"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections 选举前后经济预期变化的异质性
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70001
Paul Niekamp
{"title":"Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections","authors":"Paul Niekamp","doi":"10.1111/coep.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses the Survey of Consumer Expectations to study the effects of the 2016 and 2020 US elections on economic expectations. I find that Trump's 2016 election victory elicited broad-based improvements in US stock price and debt expectations, transcending the “winning team.” Aggregate expectations of a US debt level decrease more than doubled. While stronger for white individuals, improvements were distributed across demographics, including predicted Democrat voters, except black individuals. I find no evidence that Biden's 2020 election victory elicited improvements in expectations of the “winning team.” Aggregate stock market expectations decreased and individuals anticipated a higher unemployment rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"299-318"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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