Foreign Policy Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Partners in Persuasion: Extra-Governmental Organizations in the Vietnam War","authors":"C. Levinson","doi":"10.1093/fpa/orab021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orab021","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Why do US presidents form collaborative relationships with private organizations in matters of national security? This paper argues that these symbiotic relationships are initiated by ambitious presidents facing public resistance and congressional opposition. They enlist extra-governmental organizations (EGOs) to help mobilize public support to pressure Congress to grant its consent. EGOs are able to launder information because of their ostensible political independence and their freedom of expression, which permits them to circumvent anti-propaganda laws that constrain the executive branch. The paper further argues that the ecosystem of extra-governmental influence reflects a bias in the structure of US national security politics that favors presidential collaboration with interventionist organizations. Original archival research into the politics of the Vietnam War covering three phases of the conflict, Americanization, disenchantment, and Vietnamization, supports the paper's claims. The broader historical context shows that EGO collaborations have shaped the political development of the US national security establishment.\u0000 ¿Por qué los presidentes estadounidenses establecen relaciones de colaboración con organizaciones privadas en materia de seguridad nacional? En este artículo, se sostiene que estas relaciones simbióticas son iniciadas por presidentes ambiciosos que se enfrentan a la resistencia pública y a la oposición del Congreso. Consiguen que las organizaciones extragubernamentales (Extra-Governmental Organizations, EGO) ayuden a movilizar el apoyo público para presionar al Congreso a fin de que otorgue su consentimiento. Las EGO pueden blanquear información debido a su ostensible independencia política y a su libertad de expresión, lo que les permite eludir las leyes antipropaganda que limitan al poder ejecutivo. El artículo sostiene, además, que el ecosistema de influencia extragubernamental refleja un sesgo en la estructura de la política de seguridad nacional estadounidense que favorece la colaboración presidencial con las organizaciones intervencionistas. Una investigación de archivos originales sobre la política de la guerra de Vietnam que abarca tres fases del conflicto (la americanización, el desencanto y la vietnamización) respalda las afirmaciones del artículo. El contexto histórico más amplio muestra que las colaboraciones de las EGO dieron forma al desarrollo político del establishment de la seguridad nacional estadounidense.\u0000 Pourquoi les présidents américains établissent-ils des relations de collaboration avec des sociétés privées pour des questions de sécurité nationale? Cet article soutient que ces relations symbiotiques sont initiées par des présidents ambitieux confrontés à une résistance publique et à une opposition du Congrès. Ils font appel à des organisations extra-gouvernementales pour les aider à mobiliser le soutien du public et ainsi faire pression sur le Congrès pour qu'il leur donne son consentement. Ces org","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45835771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Migration and Economic Coercion","authors":"Brendan J. Connell, Samantha L Moya, Adrian J. Shin","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB019","url":null,"abstract":"The dominant narrative on economic coercion focuses on institutional, cultural, and reputational factors to explain why some countries use economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool. In this article, we argue that the linkage between economic sanctions and migration is an important consideration for potential sanction givers. Economic sanctions often increase the economic distress on the target country, which in turn causes more people to migrate to countries where their co-ethnics reside. Countries that host a large number of nationals from the target country face a disproportionately high level of migration pressure when sanctions increase emigration from the target country. Hence, policymakers of these countries oppose economic sanctions on the target country as an attempt to reduce migration. Analyzing the sanctions bills in the European Parliament from 2011 to 2015, we find empirical support for our prediction. ∗We would like to thank Nicole Rae Baerg, David Bearce, and Stefanie Walter for their comments and suggestions. All errors remain our own. In February 2011, the European Union (EU) deliberated the possibility of imposing economic sanctions on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s regime for its perpetuation of violence on its own people. Although the proposal received overwhelming support from prominent Western European liberal democracies, such as Germany and France, Italy and Malta strongly opposed this act of coercion, which in part led to the EU’s overall refrain of issuing immediate sanctions against Libya as talks came to an end. Instead, the EU agreed on a symbolic joint communique condemning the “unacceptable use of force against civilians” in February 2011. It was only after the United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1973 was adopted on March 12, 2011 that the Council of the European Union adopted legislation to implement sanctions on the Gaddafi regime. Why were Italy and Malta against imposing economic sanctions on Libya? More generally, why do some countries favor the use economic sanctions, while others are more reluctant to resort to sanctions as a foreign policy tool? Italy and Malta present an interesting empirical puzzle considering their shared EU membership status with the other 26 member states who preferred the use of sanctions. Existing explanations of economic coercion are also unconvincing in the case of Libya given the series of institutional, economic, and cultural similarities between Italy, Malta, and the EU member states. Historically, states have imposed economic sanctions as punishment for the target country’s violation of international norms, for non-compliance with international agreements, or to shift the target country’s behavior in a way that serves the interests of sending country (Masters 2017). Conventional wisdom too holds that liberal democracies often impose sanctions on autocratic regimes that violate international norms or international humanitarian law. But while it is seen that demo","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42030574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reframing, Remorse, and Reassurance: Remedial Work in Diplomatic Crises","authors":"Lee Aldar, Zohar Kampf, G. Heimann","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB018","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper suggests a framework for studying how remedial actions are deployed following diplomatic crisis. On the basis of thirty-four case studies and twenty-one interviews with senior statespersons, we offer a novel typology of remedial strategies employed for diffusing interstate tension and pinpoint the various calculations taken by decision-makers in performing them. The analysis reveals three primary strategies for restoring diplomatic relations, the last of which was neglected thus far in the literature: reframing, wherein state actors negotiate the definition of transgressions and their responsibility for its occurrence; remorse, wherein the accused actors acknowledge ranging degrees of responsibility for committing wrongdoing; and finally, reassurance, wherein actors channel the remedial focus to the future relationship between the involved parties. Moreover, statespersons articulated several considerations taken into account when selecting a specific remedial strategy: the perceived value of the offended party, domestic political criticism, levels of publicity, adjusting a specific remedy to the target audience, and self-image. We conclude by discussing the value of remedial work for the study of diplomatic crises.\u0000 Cet article suggère un cadre pour l’étude de la manière dont des actions correctives sont déployées suite à une crise diplomatique. Nous nous sommes basés sur trente-quatre études de cas et vingt-et-un entretiens avec des hauts responsables d’État pour proposer une nouvelle typologie des stratégies correctives employées pour atténuer la tension entre États et identifier les divers calculs effectués par les décideurs pour les exécuter. Cette analyse révèle trois principales stratégies de restauration des relations diplomatiques, et la dernière d'entre elles a jusqu'ici été négligée par la littérature: celle du recadrage, dans laquelle les acteurs étatiques négocient la définition des transgressions et leur responsabilité dans leur manifestation; celle du remords, dans laquelle les acteurs accusés admettent leurs divers degrés de responsabilité dans l'engagement dans une mauvaise conduite; et enfin, celle de la réassurance, dans laquelle les acteurs canalisent leur attention corrective sur la future relation entre les parties impliquées. De plus, les responsables d’État ont articulé plusieurs considérations prises en compte lors de la sélection d'une stratégie corrective spécifique: la valeur perçue de la partie offensée, la critique politique intérieure, les niveaux de publicité, l'adaptation d'une action corrective spécifique au public cible et l'image de soi. Nous concluons par une discussion sur la valeur du travail correctif pour l’étude des crises diplomatiques.\u0000 Este artículo sugiere un marco para estudiar cómo se implementan las acciones correctivas tras una crisis diplomática. Sobre la base de treinta y cuatro estudios de casos y veintiuna entrevistas con altos cargos del estado, ofrecemos una novedosa tipología de","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45620344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs, Policy Windows, and “Pragmatic Engagement”: Reconsidering Insights of the Multiple Streams Framework and the Obama Administration's 2009 Policy Shift Toward Military-Run Myanmar","authors":"J. Haacke","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB017","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to contribute to the evolving dialogue between Foreign Policy Analysis and Public Policy with reference to John Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Approach (MSA). It problematises how one of the key concepts of MSA - policy windows- has been used in applications to foreign policy and suggests that policy windows may be more difficult to exploit than illustrations of successful foreign policy entrepreneurship indicate. Indeed, the article argues that policy windows can be either small or large; their size will likely differ not least because policy windows are situated within numerous contexts. With reference to instances of foreign policy redirection, the paper highlights four such contexts: the placement and access of foreign policy entrepreneurs; the level of contestation surrounding a problematic but prevailing policy; geopolitical pressures; and ideas guiding foreign policy. The article moreover suggests that by contextualising policy windows and considering also how contingency may affect policy windows, it seems possible to integrate insights from foreign policy analysis into current theorizing about foreign policy entrepreneurship drawing on the multiple streams framework. The empirical illustration examines the policy window that opened up for policy entrepreneurs to recast longstanding US policy toward military-run Myanmar as the Obama administration took office.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49076277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Going Nativist: How Nativism and Economic Ideology Interact to Shape Beliefs about Global Trade","authors":"Kathleen E Powers, Jason Reifler, T. Scotto","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Existing research explains variation in trade attitudes by pitting explanations rooted in the foreign part of foreign economic policy, like nativism, against economic beliefs like a commitment to free market principles. But what happens when these factors create significant cross-pressures—how do free market-oriented nativists think about trade? We argue that nativism is a higher-order belief that constrains the relationship between lower-order economic attitudes and beliefs about international trade. We test our argument using representative samples from the United States and United Kingdom. First, we analyze observational data and find a significant interaction whereby nativism moderates the relationship between free market attitudes and beliefs that trade provides national and global benefits. Second, we report results from a survey experiment to show that a message about the long-term benefits from free trade increases support for free trade in both samples. Importantly, we also find that nativist values weaken the treatment effect in the US sample. As long as international relations scholars focus on cultural or economic antecedents on their own, we miss much about how elements in belief systems interact.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43829839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Birds of a Feather, Do Sanctioned States Flock Together?","authors":"B. Early","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Despite several high-profile cases of cooperation between sanctioned states, little is understood about how being sanctioned affects target states’ incentives to cooperate with one another and what forms that cooperation might take. I theorize that sanctioned states will tend to seek out sanctions-surviving assistance from nonsanctioned states in most cases. Being sanctioned constrains how much useful assistance that sanctioned states can provide to one another, as they suffer from similar trade constraints, levels of economic turmoil, and governmental resource limitations. I test my theory's predictions that sanctioned states are less likely to cooperate with one another via two different large-n tests involving cooperation via engaging in trade-based sanctions-busting and civil nuclear cooperation. Both of these distinct tests provide strong support for my theory. The final portion of the study conducts an exploratory analysis of why sanctioned states still sometimes cooperate with one another, finding that such cooperation may involve risky or taboo transactions, like arms sales, and that sanctioned parties have incentives to keep their cooperation a secret in such cases. These findings improve our understanding of the various cooperative strategies that states employ to survive sanctions.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48241022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Committed Moderates and Uncommitted Extremists: Ideological Leaning and Parties’ Narratives on Military Interventions in Italy","authors":"L. Curini, V. Vignoli","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Current research highlights that ideology decisively affects political contestation concerning peace and security operations in European countries. In particular, recent studies suggest that party preferences on this issue follow a curvilinear distribution along the left-right axis, delineating a conflict between moderate and extreme parties. However, the impact of this cleavage on the use of strategic narratives to either support or criticize these missions requires more attention. This article aims to fill this gap by employing seeded latent Dirichlet allocation, a semi-supervised automated text analysis method, to analyze parliamentary debates on Italy's most significant troop deployments between 1994 and 2013. We expect to find that while moderates express a supportive narrative aimed at justifying the use of force, extremists attempt to delegitimize military interventions. Accordingly, we hypothesize that moderate parties emphasize more on the multilateral and humanitarian framework of a mission, while extremist parties focus more on its military means. The empirical findings largely confirm our hypotheses. By means of its method and results, the article contributes both empirically and methodologically to the debate on the party politics of military interventions in Europe.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43602334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dimensionality of Party Politics of Foreign Policy: Spatial Modeling of Slovakia's National Council","authors":"M. Onderco, Rik Joosen","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB012","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Recent scholarship on parties and foreign policy argues that foreign policy preferences seem to be split along the same lines as the general policy disputes. We use spatial modeling to analyze whether this is indeed the case. Drawing on the unique complete sample of all votes in the Slovakia's National Council from 2002 through 2019, our results suggest that the split over foreign policy is much smaller than the general policy divide. Contrary to expectations, this split does not follow the left–right distinction. The results suggest that the government–opposition split remains in the foreign policy as well.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/FPA/ORAB012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49573158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The US Congress and Rogue States","authors":"Shereen Kotb, Gyung-Ho Jeong","doi":"10.1093/fpa/orab011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orab011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Foreign policy has become one of the most polarizing issues in American politics. This paper investigates the extent to which this division extends to arguably one of the most bipartisan foreign policy issues: policies toward rogue states. Our examination of congressional voting and sponsorship data related to rogue states since 1991 finds that, while there is a high degree of bipartisanship on the issue, there are nuanced but significant partisan differences. First, we find that Democrats are significantly more likely to support a rogue state bill dealing with human rights concerns, whereas Republicans are significantly less likely to support a conciliatory bill. We also find that members of Congress are less likely to propose and support a rogue state bill in the presence of a co-partisan president. We thus conclude that, despite the overall high degree of bipartisanship on rogue state issues, partisanship plays an important role in influencing legislative behavior.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/fpa/orab011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49440941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alliance Embeddedness: Rodrigo Duterte and the Resilience of the US–Philippine Alliance","authors":"Gregory H. Winger","doi":"10.1093/FPA/ORAB013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/FPA/ORAB013","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pledged to radically reorient Philippine foreign policy by separating from Manila's longtime ally the United States. Yet, this vaunted break with America has failed to manifest. Joint US–Philippine military activities have continued with President Duterte even singing the praises of his American partners. To understand how this about-face in Manila occurred, I conducted a detailed analysis of the first eighteen months of the Duterte administration. Drawing on primary sources and interviews with government officials from both countries, I argue that the continued vitality of the US–Philippine alliance stems not from disenchantment with China nor personal relationship between Duterte and Trump, but rather from an underlying institutional affinity engendered over decades of defense cooperation. Specifically, institutionalized cooperation within the alliance has cultivated a strong reservoir of support for the alliance within key institutions inside the Philippine government. This case not only highlights the development of the Duterte administration but also illustrates the wider ability of alliances to weather political discord by cultivating support within national bureaucracies.","PeriodicalId":46954,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Policy Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42859620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}