{"title":"New misspecification tests for multinomial logit models","authors":"Dennis Fok, Richard Paap","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multinomial Logit [MNL] models are misspecified when the Independence of Irrelevant Assumption [IIA] does not hold. In this paper we compare existing tests for IIA with two newly proposed tests. Both new tests use that, when MNL is the true model, preferences across pairs of alternatives can be described by independent binary logit models. The first test compares Composite Likelihood parameter estimates based on pairs of alternatives with standard Maximum Likelihood estimates using a Hausman (1978) test. The second is a test for overidentification in a GMM framework using more pairs than necessary. A detailed Monte Carlo study shows that the GMM test is in general superior with respect to the performance under the null and under the alternative hypothesis. An empirical illustration demonstrates the practical usefulness of the tests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100531"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Location choice of residential housing supply: An application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model","authors":"Yu Zhang, Eric J. Miller","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The supply location of residential housing is the result of multiple, simultaneous decisions by housing developers. This choice situation can be characterized by the discretionary choice of locations for the housing projects and the amount of housing units to be built at the given locations. Within this context, the modelling of residential housing supply locations, or the allocation of predicted housing supply over space, is a discrete-continuous process. In this paper, we apply a multiple discrete continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model to simultaneously model the location choice and amount of housing supply. The empirical study is conducted in the city of Toronto with a pooled model, and four separated models for each structure type. The prediction results indicate reasonable fits. The developed model can be used to generate housing supply at a given period over space in an urban microsimulation system and serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, urban planners, and researchers in the field of housing supply and urban systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100535"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yaoming Liang , Ruiqi Chen , Senbin Zhang , Hongfu Liu , Li Han
{"title":"Social finance in emerging markets: Insights into Chinese individual investor preferences with broader implications","authors":"Yaoming Liang , Ruiqi Chen , Senbin Zhang , Hongfu Liu , Li Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100534","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100534","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social finance, which integrates social impact with financial returns, is increasingly recognized as a catalyst for sustainable socio-economic development. This study presents an empirical analysis of Chinese individual investors' preferences for social finance products, using a customized choice experiment. The results reveal a strong investor preference for products with high annualized returns, short investment tenures, a focus on the healthcare sector, government backing, and flexible redemption options. By applying latent class analysis, we identify three distinct investor segments: Flexible Savers, Holistic Benefit Assessors, and Economic Return Seekers. The study also examines how demographic characteristics such as age, education, income, risk tolerance, philanthropic involvement, and awareness of social finance are associated with distinct investor segments. The findings suggest that future efforts should focus on designing social finance products that align with the diverse needs of these investor segments, thereby enhancing the appeal and effectiveness of social finance initiatives. Such tailored strategies could play a pivotal role in mobilizing private capital for social finance, maximizing its potential to drive sustainable socio-economic progress in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100534"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Latent class choice models with an error structure: Investigating potential unobserved associations between latent segmentation and behavior generation","authors":"Sung Hoo Kim , Patricia L. Mokhtarian","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Latent class choice modeling has gained great popularity in the transportation and choice modeling communities across the years. However, discussion of principles associated with the specification of the class membership model has barely appeared in the literature. Related to this issue, this study questions whether one of the basic assumptions of latent class choice modeling, that of independence between latent segmentation and the behavior generation process, is tenable. We formulate latent class choice models where the unobserved influences on latent segmentation and behavior generation are correlated, by introducing an error structure reflecting that supposition. The proposed method is applied to two empirical settings. In the first application, the dependent variable is an ordinal variable measuring willingness to share autonomous vehicle rides with strangers. In the second application, the dependent variable is a binary indicator of whether a person has used ridehailing services for social purposes. In both applications, error correlations were statistically significant, indicating that the segmentation and behavior generation processes are jointly determined. Although goodness of fits and parameter estimates per se are similar to those of the standard latent class choice models for these particular applications, allowing an error structure leads to a subtle change in model implications. In particular, our scenario analyses, which present marginal effects, illustrate the value of the proposed model for considering jointness arising from correlated errors, in contrast to standard latent class models. Lastly, we propose several avenues for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100519"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ruth Quainoo , Gregory Howard , Vasundhara Gaur , Corey Lang
{"title":"Model choice and framing effects: Do discrete choice modeling decisions affect loss aversion estimates?","authors":"Ruth Quainoo , Gregory Howard , Vasundhara Gaur , Corey Lang","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether the presence and magnitude of estimated loss aversion (LA) in a discrete choice experiment is a function of modeling choice. The experiment examined preferences for utility-scale solar energy siting based on a series of installation attributes and changes in household electric bill (the payment vehicle, which can increase or decrease relative to the status-quo). We employ multiple discrete choice modeling approaches and show that, across all models, the implications of accounting for loss aversion are qualitatively similar and match theoretical predictions. Despite this similarity, when comparing results across models we find that model choice has substantial impacts on estimated loss aversion. Specifically, different models estimate loss/gain ratios below two and in excess of six for the same data set. Thus, the consequences of framing decisions, which are an important aspect of nonmarket valuation, are not just the provenance of survey and choice experiment design but may also be heavily influenced by empirical model choice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100524"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Louis de Grange , Felipe González , Matthieu Marechal , Rodrigo Troncoso
{"title":"A consistent moment equations for binary probit models with endogenous variables using instrumental variables","authors":"Louis de Grange , Felipe González , Matthieu Marechal , Rodrigo Troncoso","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A methodology is developed for obtaining consistent moment estimators of the parameters in probit models that include both exogenous and endogenous variables. The approach is based on the use of instrumental variables in the formulation of moment conditions in order to solve a system of equations from which the consistent estimators are derived. The moment conditions also enable the correlations between the endogenous variables and the error terms to be estimated. Comparisons with uncorrected maximum likelihood and Heckman's classic two-stage method using simulated data demonstrate that the proposed method generates consistent estimators with relatively smaller mean square errors. We also apply our method to a real data case, confirming the good estimation properties of our new approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100523"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transformation-based flexible error structures for choice modeling","authors":"Chandra R. Bhat","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we propose a reverse Yeo-Johnson (YJ) transformation to accommodate flexible skewed and fat-tailed specifications of stochastic terms in multivariate choice models. Essentially, we specify a YJ transformation of the univariate error terms to a univariate symmetric distribution, and then tie the resulting transformed univariate symmetric terms into a convenient symmetric multivariate distribution. In this paper, we use a normal distribution for the transformed univariate symmetric terms and bring these together using a multivariate normal distribution. In this way, the original non-normal error terms become reverse YJ-transformed. The use of such a flexible parametric distribution lends additional robustness to the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator. The proposed approach can be applied to a number of different univariate and multivariate mixed modeling choice structures. In a demonstration application, in the current paper, the proposed model is applied to investigate the effect of urban living on walking frequency, considering the choice of urban living as being endogenous to walking frequency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100522"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142540135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling household online shopping and home delivery demand using latent class & ordinal generalized extreme value (GEV) models","authors":"Kaili Wang, Ya Gao, Khandker Nurul Habib","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The surge in e-commerce during the past decade has led to dramatic changes in consumer shopping behaviour. The study applies two Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) family models to investigate households' e-shopping demands. The study proposes a model structure to jointly model ordinal-based choice behaviour with choice-makers' latent class membership. Introducing latent class structure with the OGEV formulation accounts for the relationship between choice-makers heterogeneous preferential groups and their ordinal choice outcomes. Furthermore, the study also applies the Ordered General Extreme Value (OGEV)-Negative Binomial (NB) model, capturing the interplay between consumers' in-store shopping demands and online shopping behaviour. The RUM principle inherited within the OGEV-NB model allows econometric valuation of in-store shopping activity explicitly considering households' e-shopping demands. Both models are empirically estimated using a dataset collected in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The empirical findings and behavioural implications are also discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100521"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Petr Mariel , Alaitz Artabe , Ulf Liebe , Jürgen Meyerhoff
{"title":"An assessment of the current use of hybrid choice models in environmental economics, and considerations for future applications","authors":"Petr Mariel , Alaitz Artabe , Ulf Liebe , Jürgen Meyerhoff","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100520","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100520","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the use of hybrid choice models (HCM), also referred to as integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models, within environmental valuation studies. The investigation is motivated by the fact that stated preference surveys in this field increasingly incorporate additional data into their modelling, particularly respondents' attitudes towards the environment in a broader context or specifically towards the environmental changes under evaluation. Key findings include the fact that sample sizes are usually too small for such complex models, that many studies use ad hoc scales as indicators of latent variables without first testing the validity and reliability of the scales, and that model results are often not compared with a benchmark model. One particularly notable finding of the simulation study is that excluding a latent variable, such as estimating Random Parameter Logit (RPL) instead of HCM, does not necessarily lead to biased willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. Therefore, if the inclusion of a latent construct is not critical to the study, we suggest opting for more traditional and robust models such as RPL or Latent Class Models (LCM). The perceived benefits of gaining a better understanding of how latent factors influence decisions come with risks associated with defining and estimating an HCM. To improve the quality of research, we provide recommendations for future applications of HCM in environmental economics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100520"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Too much, too little? A CBC approach accounting for screening from both sides","authors":"Lisa Wamhoff, Bernhard Baumgartner","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Consumers are often assumed to use a two-stage decision process, screening out products in the first step and choosing among the remaining alternatives in the second step. When analyzing data from discrete choice studies, a compensatory decision strategy is usually presumed. Gilbride and Allenby (2004) introduced a method to model a decision process in a choice-based conjoint analysis combining the compensatory assumption with the two-stage decision process. Respondents first screen out alternatives that do not meet minimum requirements for attributes, followed by a choice between the remaining alternatives using the compensatory rule.</p><p>In this paper, we extend their approach by considering not only screening with a minimum threshold but also with a maximum value for every attribute. We compare this extension to the original method by Gilbride and Allenby (2004) and a single-step compensatory model. We do so on the basis of one simulation scenario as well as three empirical conjoint datasets.</p><p>The results indicate that two-sided screening is applied especially to prices. Both the original and extended models exhibit nearly identical performance. However, they outperform the one-step choice model that ignores screening in terms of fit and predictive validity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100508"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175553452400040X/pdfft?md5=2432f35ff28dedac4b1080f5cb2768a2&pid=1-s2.0-S175553452400040X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142230576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}