{"title":"The demographic consequences of sex‐selection technology","authors":"Qi Li, J. Pantano","doi":"10.3982/qe2088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe2088","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last several years, highly accurate methods of sex selection before conception have been developed. Given that strong preferences for sex variety in offspring have been documented for the U.S., we ask what the demographic consequences of sex‐selection technology could be. Lacking variation across space and time in access to this technology, we estimate a dynamic programming model of fertility decisions with microdata on fertility histories. We leverage the quasi‐experimental variation inherent in the random determination of sex to identify the key structural parameter characterizing preferences for sex variety in offspring. We then simulate the introduction of this technology. While this technology can reduce fertility by allowing parents to efficiently reach their preferred sex mix, it could also increase it. This is because without this technology, many parents may opt not to have another baby given the uncertainty about its sex. Results suggest that these two effects operate simultaneously, but on net, sex‐selection technology ends up reducing the average family size among married women by less than 2% in the steady state, a much smaller decline than the one that would be predicted by alternative methods.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70361899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, Giovanni L. Violante
{"title":"Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID","authors":"Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, Giovanni L. Violante","doi":"10.3982/qe2260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe2260","url":null,"abstract":"The Global Repository of Income Dynamics (GRID) is a new open-access, cross-country database that contains a wide range of micro statistics on income inequality, dynamics, and mobility. It has four key characteristics: it is built on micro panel data drawn from administrative records; it fully exploits the longitudinal dimension of the underlying data sets; it offers granular descriptions of income inequality and income dynamics for finely defined subpopulations; and it is designed from the ground up with the goals of harmonization and cross-country comparability. This paper introduces the database and presents a set of global trends in income inequality and income dynamics across the 13 countries that are currently in GRID. Our results are based on the statistics created for GRID by the 13 country teams who also contributed to this special issue with individual articles.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"35 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138504806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Moritz Drechsel-Grau, Andreas Peichl, Kai D. Schmid, Johannes F. Schmieder, Hannes Walz, Stefanie Wolter
{"title":"Inequality and income dynamics in Germany","authors":"Moritz Drechsel-Grau, Andreas Peichl, Kai D. Schmid, Johannes F. Schmieder, Hannes Walz, Stefanie Wolter","doi":"10.3982/qe1912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1912","url":null,"abstract":"We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us—for the first time—to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross-sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession, inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tail. We further document substantial gender differences in average earnings and inequality over the life cycle. While for men earnings rise and inequality falls as they grow older, many women reduce working hours when starting a family such that average earnings fall and inequality increases. Men's earnings changes are on average smaller than women's but are substantially more affected by the business cycle. During the Great Recession, men's earnings losses become magnified and gains are attenuated. Apart from recession years, earnings changes are significantly right-skewed reflecting the good overall state of the German labor market and increasing labor supply. In the second part of the paper, we study the distribution of total income including incomes of self-employed, business owners, and landlords. We find that total inequality increased significantly more than earnings inequality. Regarding income dynamics, entrepreneurs' income changes are more dispersed, less skewed, less leptokurtic, and less dependent on average past income than workers' income changes. Finally, we find that top income earners have become less likely to fall out of the top 1 and 0.1%.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 48","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Audra Bowlus, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Huju Liu, Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park
{"title":"Four decades of Canadian earnings inequality and dynamics across workers and firms","authors":"Audra Bowlus, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Huju Liu, Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park","doi":"10.3982/qe1846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1846","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the evolution of individual earnings inequality and dynamics in Canada from 1983 to 2016 using tax files and administrative records. Linking individual tax filers to their employers (and rich administrative records on firms) beginning in 2001, it also documents the relationship between the earnings dynamics of workers and the size and growth of their employers. It highlights three main patterns over this period: First, with a few exceptions (sharp increase in top 1% and declining gender gap), Canada has experienced relatively modest changes in overall earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility between 1983 and 2016. Second, earnings inequality and the distribution of earnings growth vary substantially over the business cycle. Third, the earnings dynamics of individuals are strongly related to the size and employment growth of their employers.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 41","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Earnings dynamics and its intergenerational transmission: Evidence from Norway","authors":"Elin Halvorsen, Serdar Ozkan, Sergio Salgado","doi":"10.3982/qe1849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1849","url":null,"abstract":"Using administrative data, we provide an extensive characterization of labor earnings dynamics in Norway. Some of our findings are as follows: (i) Norway has not been immune to the increase in top earnings inequality seen in other countries, (ii) the earnings distribution compresses in the bottom 90% over the life cycle but expands in the top 10%, and (iii) the earnings growth distribution is left-skewed and leptokurtic, and the extent of these nonnormalities varies with age and past income.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrés Blanco, Bernardo Diaz de Astarloa, Andres Drenik, Christian Moser, Danilo R. Trupkin
{"title":"The evolution of the earnings distribution in a volatile economy: Evidence from Argentina","authors":"Andrés Blanco, Bernardo Diaz de Astarloa, Andres Drenik, Christian Moser, Danilo R. Trupkin","doi":"10.3982/qe1857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1857","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies earnings inequality and dynamics in Argentina between 1996 and 2015. Following the 2001–2002 crisis, the Argentine economy transitioned from a low- to a high-inflation regime, while collective bargaining and the minimum wage gained influence. This transition was associated with a persistent decrease in earnings dispersion and cyclical movements in higher-order moments of the distribution of earnings changes. To shed light on the changing nature of wage rigidity during this period, we develop a new method to estimate regular-wage processes. As the Argentine economy transitioned from low to high inflation, the monthly frequency of regular-wage changes almost doubled, while the distribution of regular-wage changes morphed from having a mode around zero and positive skewness to having a positive mode and more symmetric tails.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 44","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Manuel Arellano, Stéphane Bonhomme, Micole De Vera, Laura Hospido, Siqi Wei
{"title":"Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records","authors":"Manuel Arellano, Stéphane Bonhomme, Micole De Vera, Laura Hospido, Siqi Wei","doi":"10.3982/qe1887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1887","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: More than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income dynamics in the United Kingdom and the impact of the Covid-19 recession.","authors":"Brian Bell, Nicholas Bloom, Jack Blundell","doi":"10.3982/QE1872","DOIUrl":"10.3982/QE1872","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we use an employer-based survey of earnings and hours to set out the key patterns in UK earnings dynamics from 1975 to 2020, with a particular focus on the most recent recession. We demonstrate that (log) earnings changes exhibit strongly procyclical skewness and have become increasingly leptokurtic, and thus less well approximated by a log-normal distribution, over the period of study. This holds across genders and sectors. Exploiting the long duration of our panel, we then explore the responsiveness of earnings and hours to aggregate and firm-level shocks, finding ample heterogeneity in the exposure of different types of workers to aggregate shocks. Exposure is falling in age, firm size, skill level, and permanent earnings, and is lower for unionized and public sector workers. The qualitative patterns of earnings changes across workers observed in the Covid-19 recession of 2020 are broadly as predicted using the previously estimated exposures and size of the shock. Firm-specific shocks are important for wages given the variation in within-firm productivity and the patterns of heterogeneity are markedly different than for aggregate shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"13 4","pages":"1849-1878"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/82/c7/QUAN-13-1849.PMC9877856.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10592097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification","authors":"Stéphane Bonhomme, Martin Weidner","doi":"10.3982/qe1930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1930","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one-step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map it to the local power of a specification test of the reference model. Our approach allows for systematic sensitivity analysis when the parameter of interest may be partially or irregularly identified. As illustrations, we study three applications: an empirical analysis of the impact of conditional cash transfers in Mexico where misspecification stems from the presence of stigma effects of the program, a cross-sectional binary choice model where the error distribution is misspecified, and a dynamic panel data binary choice model where the number of time periods is small and the distribution of individual effects is misspecified.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The importance of hiring frictions in business cycles","authors":"Renato Faccini, Eran Yashiv","doi":"10.3982/qe1512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1512","url":null,"abstract":"Hiring is a costly activity reflecting firms' investment in their workers. Microdata show that hiring costs involve production disruption. Thus, cyclical fluctuations in the value of output, induced by price frictions, have consequences for the optimal allocation of hiring activities. We outline a mechanism based on cyclical markup fluctuations, placing emphasis on hiring frictions interacting with price frictions. This mechanism generates strong propagation and amplification of all key macroeconomic variables in response to technology shocks and mutes the traditional transmission of monetary policy shocks. A local projection analysis of aggregate U.S. data shows that the empirical results, including the cyclicality of markups, are consistent with the model's impulse response functions.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 45","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}