Quantitative Economics最新文献_第6页

Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys 部分四舍五入概率预测调查的不确定性度量

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-07-19 DOI: 10.3982/qe1703

Alexander Glas, Matthias Hartmann

{"title":"Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys","authors":"Alexander Glas, Matthias Hartmann","doi":"10.3982/qe1703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1703","url":null,"abstract":"Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel stylized fact that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect the fact that some survey participants employ a rather judgmental approach to forecasting as opposed to using a formal model. We use the distinct numerical accuracies of panelists' reported probabilities as a way to propose several alternative and easily implementable corrections that (i) can be carried out in real time, that is, before outcomes are observed, and (ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex ante and ex post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates, uncertainty about inflation, output growth and unemployment in the U.S. and the Euro area is higher after correcting for the rounding effect. The increase in the share of nonrounded responses in recent years also helps to understand the trajectory of survey-based average uncertainty during the years since the financial and sovereign debt crisis.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 36","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A discrete choice model for partially ordered alternatives 部分有序方案的离散选择模型

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-07-19 DOI: 10.3982/qe1497

Eleni Aristodemou, Adam M. Rosen

{"title":"A discrete choice model for partially ordered alternatives","authors":"Eleni Aristodemou, Adam M. Rosen","doi":"10.3982/qe1497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1497","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze a discrete choice model for partially ordered alternatives. The alternatives are differentiated along two dimensions: the first an unordered “horizontal” dimension, and the second an ordered “vertical” dimension. The model can be used in circumstances in which individuals choose among products of different brands, wherein each brand offers an ordered choice menu, for example, by offering products of varying quality. The unordered–ordered nature of the discrete choice problem is used to characterize the identified set of model parameters. Following an initial nonparametric analysis that relies on shape restrictions inherent in the ordered dimension of the problem, we then provide a specialized analysis for parametric specifications that generalize common ordered choice models. We characterize conditional choice probabilities as a function of model primitives with particular analysis focusing on cases in which unobservable taste for quality of each brand offering is multivariate normally distributed. We provide explicit formulae used for estimation and inference via maximum likelihood, and we consider inference based on Wald and quasi-likelihood ratio statistics, the latter of which can be robust to a possible lack of point identification. An empirical illustration is conducted using data on razor blade purchases in which each brand has product offerings vertically differentiated by quality.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic. 大流行病中的社会疏远和供应中断。

IF 1.9 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-05-01 Epub Date: 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.3982/QE1618

Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Guerrieri

{"title":"Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic.","authors":"Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Guerrieri","doi":"10.3982/QE1618","DOIUrl":"10.3982/QE1618","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We integrate an epidemiological model, augmented with contact and mobility analyses, with a two-sector macroeconomic model, to assess the economic costs of labor supply disruptions in a pandemic. The model is designed to capture key characteristics of the U.S. input-output tables with a core sector that produces intermediate inputs not easily replaceable by the other sectors, possibly subject to minimum-scale requirements. Using epidemiological and mobility data to inform our exercises, we show that the reduction in labor services due to the observed social distancing (spontaneous and mandatory) could explain up to 6-8 percentage points of the roughly 12% U.S. GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020. We show that public measures designed to protect workers in core industries and occupations with tasks that cannot be performed from home, can flatten the epidemiological curve at reduced economic costs-and contain vulnerabilities to supply disruptions, namely a new surge of infections. Using state-level data for the United States, we provide econometric evidence that spontaneous social distancing was no less costly than mandated social distancing.</p>","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"13 2","pages":"681-721"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/b8/1a/QUAN-13-681.PMC9348191.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40596116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Financing corporate tax cuts with shareholder taxes 用股东税为企业减税融资

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1167

Alexis Anagnostopoulos, O. Ateşağaoğlu, Eva Cárceles-Poveda

引用次数: 11

Rising skill premium and the dynamics of optimal capital and labor taxation 不断上升的技能溢价和最优资本和劳动税收的动态

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1326

Yi-Chan Tsai, C. C. Yang, YU HSIN-JUNG, Yi-Chan Tsai, Hsin-Jung Yu

引用次数: 0

Inequality and dynamics of earnings and disposable income in Denmark 1987–2016 1987-2016年丹麦收入和可支配收入的不平等和动态

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1843

Søren Leth-Petersen, Johan Sæverud

引用次数: 4

Information theoretic approach to high‐dimensional multiplicative models: Stochastic discount factor and treatment effect 高维乘法模型的信息理论方法:随机折现因子及其处理效果

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1603

Taisuke Otsu, Chen Qiu

引用次数: 2

Modeling time varying risk of natural resource assets: Implications of climate change 自然资源资产时变风险建模:气候变化的影响

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1597

Anke D. Leroux, Vance L. Martin, Kathryn A. St. John

引用次数: 0

The development of randomization and deceptive behavior in mixed strategy games 混合策略博弈中随机化和欺骗行为的发展

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1769

I. Brocas, J. Carrillo

引用次数: 3

Market counterfactuals and the specification of multiproduct demand: A nonparametric approach 市场反事实与多产品需求规范:一种非参数方法

IF 1.8 3区经济学

Quantitative Economics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1653

Giovanni Compiani

{"title":"Market counterfactuals and the specification of multiproduct demand: A nonparametric approach","authors":"Giovanni Compiani","doi":"10.3982/qe1653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1653","url":null,"abstract":"Demand estimates are essential for addressing a wide range of positive and normative questions in economics that are known to depend on the shape—and notably the curvature—of the true demand functions. The existing frontier approaches, while allowing flexible substitution patterns, typically require the researcher to commit to a parametric specification. An open question is whether these a priori restrictions are likely to significantly affect the results. To address this, I develop a nonparametric approach to estimation of demand for differentiated products, which I then apply to California supermarket data. While the approach subsumes workhorse models such as mixed logit, it allows consumer behaviors and preferences beyond standard discrete choice, including continuous choices, complementarities across goods, and consumer inattention. When considering a tax on one good, the nonparametric approach predicts a much lower pass‐through than a standard mixed logit model. However, when assessing the market power of a multiproduct firm relative to that of a single‐product firm, the models give similar results. I also illustrate how the nonparametric approach may be used to guide the choice among parametric specifications.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70361102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 24