Journal of Risk Finance最新文献

{"title":"Cyber risk management in SMEs: insights from industry surveys","authors":"F. Hoppe, Nadine Gatzert, Petra Gruner","doi":"10.1108/JRF-02-2020-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-02-2020-0024","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis article aims to gain insights on the current state of small- and medium-sized enterprises’ (SMEs’) cyber risk management process and to derive future research directions.Design/methodology/approachThis is done by collecting market insights from 37 recent industry surveys and structuring them based on the steps of the risk management process. From this analysis, major challenges are derived and future fields of research identified.FindingsThe results indicate that deficiencies in risk culture as well as the strained market for IT experts are the major obstacles with respect to the implementation of cyber risk management in SMEs, and that these challenges are similar across countries. The findings suggest that especially the relationship between cyber security culture and cyber risk management should be investigated further, and that a stronger link between the research streams on enterprise risk management and cyber risk management would be desirable.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature by providing a systematic overview on the current state of SMEs' cyber risk management from a market perspective. The findings provide support for the existing academic literature by emphasizing the central role of cyber security culture (perception, knowledge, attitude) for a successful cyber risk management, which however should be addressed in more depth in future (empirical) research.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45511897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structured product investment behavior in low-interest rate environments","authors":"Hirotaka Fushiya, Tomoki Kitamura, Munenori Nakasato","doi":"10.1108/JRF-12-2019-0232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-12-2019-0232","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to investigate the impact of interest rates, the underlying asset and investment experience on the investment behavior of Japanese retail investors toward structured products (SPs).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Three treatments are constructed through internet-based survey experiments: interest rate, underlying asset framing and investment experience treatments. The interest rate treatment includes high- and low-interest rate environments. The underlying asset framing treatment includes equity and foreign exchange rates for the SP. The investment experience treatment includes experienced and inexperienced respondents for SPs.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The main finding of this study concerns the effect of the interaction between low-interest rates and investment experience. Specifically, SP-experienced investors tend to choose SPs in a low-interest rate environment and prefer equity-linked SPs, even though such SPs are overpriced. This finding is useful for financial regulators in formulating policies that protect retail SP investors in low-interest rate environments worldwide.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is the first to measure the sensitivities of investment behavior regarding the relative attractiveness of SPs to low-risk straight bonds, given interest rates, the underlying asset and investment experience. It provides evidence to support the development of SP regulations.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"4 1-2","pages":"113-129"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41302933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to estimate expected credit losses – ECL – for provisioning under IFRS 9","authors":"Mariya Gubareva","doi":"10.1108/JRF-05-2020-0094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-05-2020-0094","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.FindingsThis study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.Research limitations/implicationsMany issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.Practical implicationsThe proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.Originality/valueNo previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"169-190"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45016301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systematic and bibliometric review on risk culture: a novel theoretical framework","authors":"Riccardo Cimini","doi":"10.1108/JRF-06-2020-0123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-06-2020-0123","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper includes a systematic and bibliometric review of research products that address risk culture published between 1996 and 2019.Design/methodology/approachThe Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol has been followed for the systematic literature review. As to the bibliometric analysis, a network helps the readers to identify the most prominent research, if any, in terms of mutual references.FindingsRisk culture has been extensively investigated under different perspectives by scholars who belong to a research community not so much integrated in terms of reciprocal references.Practical implicationsManagers, policy makers and politicians should learn that it is important to understand risk culture because the effectiveness of corporate strategies and reforms pass also through cultural values of people that determine their conduct in the everyday lives.Originality/valueBeing still lacking, this article contributes to the literature by providing a novel theoretical framework that reconciles the different approaches through which risk culture has been investigated. The framework explains that behind risk culture there are always people and their behaviour facing risk and uncertainty. In the extent, bounded rationality might produce (mis)perceptions of risks, a large variety of human behaviour, and so different risk cultures can be observed.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"153-168"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41456654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The performance of corporate bond issuers in times of financial crisis: empirical evidence from Latin America","authors":"M. Berninger, Bruno Fiesenig, D. Schiereck","doi":"10.26083/TUPRINTS-00018676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26083/TUPRINTS-00018676","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe fundamental theory of Modigliani and Miller (1958) states that a firm's financing decisions are independent from the firm's value. Nevertheless, several empirical studies as well as theoretical approaches from the past decade impugn this relation for real markets with their immanent inefficiencies. However, these questions are rather than academic in nature: Especially the influence of macroeconomic conditions on the market perception of debt issues is from high economic importance, since the need for new liquidity usually becomes even more urgent when the economic conditions worsen.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the reaction of shareholders to the issue of debt by Latin American firms under special consideration of the macroeconomic sentiment. To do so, a sample of debt issued by Latin American companies between 2003 and 2010 is empirically examined through an event study.FindingsThe authors empirically demonstrate that specifically in Latin America, debt issuing companies show a significant underperformance during recessionary periods and an overperformance during nonrecessionary periods. These findings differ from previous results for mature capital markets. The authors conclude that not only the overall economic conditions matter to explain stock market reactions on bond issues but also the maturity of the corporate debt market plays an important role.Originality/valueThe authors provide first evidence that the previously described changes in the returns on specific stocks depending on the economic sentiment (Baker and Wurgler, 2006) are under certain conditions also present in the market for corporate debt.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42958558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scenario-based measurement of interest rate risks","authors":"Sebastian Schlütter","doi":"10.1108/JRF-11-2020-0228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-11-2020-0228","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper aims to propose a scenario-based approach for measuring interest rate risks. Many regulatory capital standards in banking and insurance make use of similar approaches. The authors provide a theoretical justification and extensive backtesting of our approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors theoretically derive a scenario-based value-at-risk for interest rate risks based on a principal component analysis. The authors calibrate their approach based on the Nelson–Siegel model, which is modified to account for lower bounds for interest rates. The authors backtest the model outcomes against historical yield curve changes for a large number of generated asset–liability portfolios. In addition, the authors backtest the scenario-based value-at-risk against the stochastic model.FindingsThe backtesting results of the adjusted Nelson–Siegel model (accounting for a lower bound) are similar to those of the traditional Nelson–Siegel model. The suitability of the scenario-based value-at-risk can be substantially improved by allowing for correlation parameters in the aggregation of the scenario outcomes. Implementing those parameters is straightforward with the replacement of Pearson correlations by value-at-risk-implied tail correlations in situations where risk factors are not elliptically distributed.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper assumes deterministic cash flow patterns. The authors discuss the applicability of their approach, e.g. for insurance companies.Practical implicationsThe authors’ approach can be used to better communicate interest rate risks using scenarios. Discussing risk measurement results with decision makers can help to backtest stochastic-term structure models.Originality/valueThe authors’ adjustment of the Nelson–Siegel model to account for lower bounds makes the model more useful in the current low-yield environment when unjustifiably high negative interest rates need to be avoided. The proposed scenario-based value-at-risk allows for a pragmatic measurement of interest rate risks, which nevertheless closely approximates the value-at-risk according to the stochastic model.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"56-77"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42113039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dependent structure and risk analysis of S&P 500 Index's continuously rising returns and continuously falling returns","authors":"Wuyi Ye, Ruyu Zhao","doi":"10.1108/JRF-01-2020-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-01-2020-0003","url":null,"abstract":"The stock market price time series can be divided into two processes: continuously rising and continuously falling. The authors can effectively prevent the stock market from crashing by accurately estimating the risk on continuously rising returns (CRR) and continuously falling returns (CFR).,The authors add an exogenous variable into Log-autoregressive conditional duration (Log-ACD) model, and then apply our extended Log-ACD model and Archimedean copula to estimate the marginal distribution and conditional distribution of CRR and CFR. Plus, the authors analyze the conditional value at risk (CVaR) and present back-test results of the CVaR. The back-test shows that our proposed risk estimation method has a good estimation power for the risk of the CRR and CFR, especially the downside risk. In addition, the authors detect whether the dependent structure between the CRR and CFR changes using the change point test method.,The empirical results indicate that there is no change point here, suggesting that the results on the dependent structure and risk analysis mentioned above are stable. Therefore, major financial events will not affect the dependent structure here. This is consistent with the point that the CRR and CFR can be analyzed to obtain the trend of stock returns from a more macro perspective than daily stock returns scholars usually study.,The risk estimation method of this paper is of great significance in understanding stock market risk and can provide corresponding valuable information for investment advisors and public policy regulators.,The authors defined a new stock returns, CRR and CFR, since it is difficult to analyze and predict the trend of stock returns according to daily stock returns because of the small autocorrelation among daily stock returns.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"93-109"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45367560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the trade-off between liquidity, risk and return under sectoral diversification across distinct economic settings","authors":"Carla Henriques, E. Neves","doi":"10.1108/JRF-05-2020-0101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-05-2020-0101","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper aims to explore the trade-off between liquidity, risk and return under sectoral diversification across distinct economic settings and investment strategies.Design/methodology/approachA novel multi-objective portfolio model is proposed to assess investment decisions under sectoral diversification, where the objective functions and constraints are interval-valued. The objective functions used are risk minimization (through the semi-absolute deviation measure of risk), maximization of liquidity (using turnover as a proxy) and the maximization of logarithmic return. Besides coherence constraints (imposing that the sum of the percentages of investment assigned to each stock should be equal to 100%), constraints regarding the maximum proportion of capital that can be invested (ensuring a minimum level of diversification) and cardinality constraints (to account for transaction costs) are also imposed.FindingsBesides the trade-off between return and risk, the study findings highlight a trade-off between liquidity and return and a positive relationship between risk and liquidity. Under an economic crisis scenario, the trade-off between return and liquidity is reduced. With the economic recovery, the levels of risk increase when contrasted with the setting of the economic crisis. The highest liquidity levels are reached with the economic boom, whereas the highest returns are obtained with the economic recession.Originality/valueThis paper suggests a new modeling approach for assessing the trade-offs between liquidity, risk and return under different scenarios and investment strategies. A new interactive procedure inspired on the reference point approach is also proposed to obtain possibly efficient portfolios according to the investor's preferences. Regarding previous approaches suggested in the literature, this new procedure allows obtaining both supported and unsupported efficient solutions when cardinality constraints are included.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"130-152"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48670436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A volatility-match approach to measure performance: the case of socially responsible exchange traded funds (ETFs)","authors":"M. Lobato, Javier Rodríguez, Herminio Romero","doi":"10.1108/JRF-04-2020-0066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-04-2020-0066","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study examines the risk-adjusted performance of socially responsible exchange traded funds (SR ETFs) in comparison to conventional ETFs.Design/methodology/approachThe main empirical result is based on a risk-adjusted performance metric that does not rely on a linear framework. It measures the difference between the returns of an ETF and the returns of a volatility-match and efficient portfolio. In addition, performance is measured using alpha based on single and multifactor formulations.FindingsResults show that the performance of SRI ETFs is not different from the performance of conventional ETFs.Originality/valueGiven the results of the study, socially aware investors can choose to invest in SRI ETFs without sacrificing performance.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"34-43"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49668361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk assessment for financial accounting: modeling probability of default","authors":"Tobias Filusch","doi":"10.1108/JRF-02-2020-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-02-2020-0033","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to introduce and tests models for point-in-time probability of default (PD) term structures as required by international accounting standards. Corresponding accounting standards prescribe that expected credit losses (ECLs) be recognized for the impairment of financial instruments, for which the probability of default strongly embodies the included default risk. This paper fills the research gap resulting from a lack of models that expand upon existing risk management techniques, link PD term structures of different risk classes and are compliant with accounting standards, e.g. offering the flexibility for business cycle-related variations.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The author modifies the non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain model (NHCTMCM) by Bluhm and Overbeck (2007a, 2007b) and introduces the generalized through-the-cycle model (GTTCM), which generalizes the homogeneous Markov chain approach to a point-in-time model. As part of the overall ECL estimation, an empirical study using Standard and Poor’s (S&P) transition data compares the performance of these models using the mean squared error.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The models can reflect observed PD term structures associated with different time periods. The modified NHCTMCM performs best at the expense of higher complexity and only its cumulative PD term structures can be transferred to valid ECL-relevant unconditional PD term structures. For direct calibration to these unconditional PD term structures, the GTTCM is only slightly worse. Moreover, it requires only half of the number of parameters that its competitor does. Both models are useful additions to the implementation of accounting regulations.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The tests are only carried out for 15-year samples within a 35-year span of available S&P transition data. Furthermore, a point-in-time forecast of the PD term structure requires a link to the business cycle, which seems difficult to find, but is in principle necessary corresponding to the accounting requirements.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Research findings are useful for practitioners, who apply and develop the ECL models of financial accounting.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The innovative models expand upon the existing methodologies for assessing financial risks, motivated by the practical requirements of new financial accounting standards.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49245140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}