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Economic complexity and productivity polarization: Evidence from Italian provinces 经济复杂性与生产率两极分化:来自意大利各省的证据
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-03-18 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0070
Roberto Basile, Gloria Cicerone
{"title":"Economic complexity and productivity polarization: Evidence from Italian provinces","authors":"Roberto Basile, Gloria Cicerone","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0070","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we analyze the role of economic complexity as a driver of regional labor productivity growth in Italy. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) measures the multiplicity of knowledge embedded in an economy’s productive structure and can be interpreted as an indicator of “qualified diversity”. We assess the impact of ECI on the distribution dynamics of labor productivity by combining growth regression analysis with conditional density estimates. Counterfactual analysis results suggest that ECI plays a key role in the observed tendency to polarization of regional labor productivity. We also provide evidence of a long-run relationship between labor productivity and ECI by using a panel cointegration analysis.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"3586 1","pages":"567 - 594"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86668934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Too much of a good thing? Households’ macroeconomic conditions and credit dynamics 好事过犹不及?家庭宏观经济状况和信贷动态
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0033
Martin Hodula, Simona Malovaná, Jan Frait
{"title":"Too much of a good thing? Households’ macroeconomic conditions and credit dynamics","authors":"Martin Hodula, Simona Malovaná, Jan Frait","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0033","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Favorable macroeconomic conditions, accompanied by optimistic consumer confidence, can stimulate and shape households’ expectations in such a way that they gradually extrapolate the view of good times lasting “forever”. As a consequence, households can then be inclined to accept a much higher level of indebtedness – higher than they would be willing to take on if they were to correctly perceive a discontinuation of the positive trend in the future. This paper documents the empirical link between the macroeconomic conditions faced by households, the confidence of households as investors and consumers, and households’ demand for credit on a sample of 21 European countries. The well-known procyclicality of household credit is found to grow stronger when favorable macroeconomic conditions are met with optimistic consumer confidence. While household credit goes hand in hand with the improving economy during an economic upturn, it is found to be sticky on the way down. Estimates show that households tend to extrapolate recent and current macroeconomic trends to the future and over-estimate the persistence of favorable or adverse conditions.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"61 1","pages":"529 - 566"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77158104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Missing growth measurement in Germany 德国经济增长数据缺失
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-02-09 DOI: 10.17169/REFUBIUM-29566
Sven Schreiber, V. Schmidt
{"title":"Missing growth measurement in Germany","authors":"Sven Schreiber, V. Schmidt","doi":"10.17169/REFUBIUM-29566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17169/REFUBIUM-29566","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion et al. (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and services varieties, where measurable plant entry and exit dynamics play a crucial rule. Our main results regarding understated real output growth lie in the range of 0.39 to 0.54 average annual percentage points for 1998–2016, which is quite closely in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors appear most affected, and that the effect in East Germany is somewhat larger. We investigate different market share proxies, provide additional robustness analysis and also discuss limitations of the approach.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"493 - 527"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73047952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Missing growth measurement in Germany 德国经济增长数据缺失
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-02-08 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0068
Sven Schreiber, Vanessa Schmidt
{"title":"Missing growth measurement in Germany","authors":"Sven Schreiber, Vanessa Schmidt","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0068","url":null,"abstract":"Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion et al. (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and services varieties, where measurable plant entry and exit dynamics play a crucial rule. Our main results regarding understated real output growth lie in the range of 0.39 to 0.54 average annual percentage points for 1998–2016, which is quite closely in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors appear most affected, and that the effect in East Germany is somewhat larger. We investigate different market share proxies, provide additional robustness analysis and also discuss limitations of the approach.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the effects of e-participation on shadow economy: a worldwide empirical analysis 电子参与对影子经济的影响:一个世界性的实证分析
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-02-02 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0076
Agnese Sacchi, Raffaella Santolini, F. Schneider
{"title":"On the effects of e-participation on shadow economy: a worldwide empirical analysis","authors":"Agnese Sacchi, Raffaella Santolini, F. Schneider","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper explores the relationship between the e-participation attitude of citizens and the size of the shadow economy, whose consequences could be detrimental to countries’ economic development. We exploit a rich panel dataset for 149 countries characterized by a large digital divide within their public sectors, different levels of both income and democratic institutions at work over years 2003–2015. Using the instrumental variables approach to address potential endogeneity issues, we find that e-participation significantly contributes to reducing the shadow economy. Due to its interactive nature for both businesses and citizens, it positively affects the individuals’ behavior against informal economic activities by creating a more collaborative environment between the government and its stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"463 - 491"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86216862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Dynamic inefficiency and fiscal interventions in an economy with land and transaction costs 具有土地和交易成本的经济体中的动态无效率和财政干预
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0110
Martin F. Hellwig
{"title":"Dynamic inefficiency and fiscal interventions in an economy with land and transaction costs","authors":"Martin F. Hellwig","doi":"10.1515/ger-2020-0110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2020-0110","url":null,"abstract":"The paper contributes to the discussion on whether real interest rates below real growth rates can be taken as evidence of dynamic inefficiency so that some fiscal intervention may be called for. A seemingly killing objection points to land, a non-produced durable asset in positive supply, as a reason why dynamic inefficiency can be ruled out. If real interest rates were expected to be below real growth rates forever, the value of land would be unbounded, which is incompatible with equilibrium. The paper shows that this objection is not robust to the presence of an arbitrarily small per-unit-of-value transaction cost. The paper also specifies fiscal interventions that provide for Pareto improvements even though they involve a resource cost. For the debate about public debt policy, the land argument is a red herring because it is incompatible with the presence of fiat money and debt denominated in units of fiat money.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Frontmatter
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-frontmatter1
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/ger-2022-frontmatter1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2022-frontmatter1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89146746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of retirement on social relationships 退休对社会关系的影响
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-01-08 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0109
S. Comi, E. Cottini, C. Lucifora
{"title":"The effect of retirement on social relationships","authors":"S. Comi, E. Cottini, C. Lucifora","doi":"10.1515/ger-2020-0109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2020-0109","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We analyze the causal effect of retirement on individual social relationships using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We find that retirement changes the composition of the individual’s social network, inducing a substitution between weak (friends or colleagues) and strong ties (family), along with an increase in the intensity of the surviving ties, and there is no effect on the network’s size. These changes in the social network’s composition are associated with a higher satisfaction and stronger relationships. Interestingly, females reduce the share of friends while males that of colleagues.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"3 1","pages":"275 - 299"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85724383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Market structure and horizontal growth strategies – A case study of the container shipping industry 市场结构与横向增长策略——以集装箱航运业为例
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-01-04 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0075
N. Tran
{"title":"Market structure and horizontal growth strategies – A case study of the container shipping industry","authors":"N. Tran","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0075","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article aims to review the structural transformation in the container shipping industry from 1995 to 2020 and identify the growth strategies of global carriers to enhance their market presence. Along with large investments in mega vessels, the growing deployment of charter capacity in all ship sectors has been a prominent trend in fleet expansion. The waves of mergers/acquisitions and bankruptcies have narrowed the group of global carriers. In addition to internal and external growth, they have been increasingly involved in strategic alliances to expand service coverage and compete well with powerful rivals. A few mega carriers have progressively captured the industry. In 2020, the Top 12 controlled 88 % of the global supply, and nearly 56 % was in the hands of the Top 4. Besides the substantial expansion of the four biggest carriers, we can identify the de-concentration within this gigantic group through the less inequality between their market shares.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"383 1","pages":"423 - 461"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85487525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election 2017年德国议会选举中的移民和反移民投票
IF 1.1 4区 经济学
German Economic Review Pub Date : 2021-12-09 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0026
Kim Leonie Kellermann, S. Winter
{"title":"Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election","authors":"Kim Leonie Kellermann, S. Winter","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"27 1","pages":"341 - 401"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75216955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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