2017年德国议会选举中的移民和反移民投票

IF 1.2 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

German Economic Review Pub Date : 2021-12-09 DOI:10.1515/ger-2021-0026

Kim Leonie Kellermann, S. Winter

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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本文实证研究了2017年德国议会选举中移民与德国另类选择党(AfD)选票之间的关系。我们进行了横断面分析，利用选举结果和社会人口以及401个德国行政区的地理特征。我们发现移民对德国新选择党投票有负面影响。外国人得票率每上升1个百分点，德国新选择党得票率就会下降至多0.37个百分点。结果对几种估计变量具有鲁棒性，例如通过工具变量分析解决外国人的潜在内生分布。

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Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election

Abstract We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.

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来源期刊

German Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： German Economic Review, the official publication of the German Economic Association (Verein für Socialpolitik), is an international journal publishing original and rigorous research of general interest in a broad range of economic disciplines, including: - macro- and microeconomics - economic policy - international economics - public economics - finance - business administration The scope of research approaches includes theoretical, empirical and experimental work. Innovative and thought-provoking contributions, in particular from younger authors, are especially welcome.