Australian Economic Papers最新文献

{"title":"Sector-Specific Exchange Rate Movements in Hong Kong Stock Market","authors":"Nazif Durmaz,&nbsp;Song Yang,&nbsp;Dechen Wang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present paper empirically examines the effects of exchange rate movements in Hong Kong's stock market using both linear ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models. Using quarterly data between 2005 and 2024 for 10 sector-specific industries, our findings reveal significant and asymmetric effects of currency appreciation and depreciation across various industries. Sectors such as finance, healthcare, consumption, and energy exhibit high sensitivity to exchange rate movements, influenced by trade exposure and macroeconomic conditions. The study underscores the necessity of nonlinear models to capture the complex interactions between exchange rates and equity markets. Additionally, macroeconomic variables play crucial roles in determining stock market performance, highlighting the multifaceted nature of financial market behavior in an open economy like Hong Kong. These insights extend the empirical literature and offer practical guidance for investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for sector-specific risk management strategies, targeted policy support, and enhanced macroeconomic coordination to mitigate the adverse effects of currency volatility and bolster Hong Kong's financial system against global economic shifts.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"30-48"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do Minimum Wages Increase Female Employment? Evidence From a Meta-Analysis","authors":"Xiaomei Li,&nbsp;Yulin Liu,&nbsp;Xu Si","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>One of the purposes of minimum wage legislation is to protect women workers. However, the impact of minimum wage on female employment has been controversial. We perform a meta-analysis to test the policy effect. After correcting for publication bias using the overall sample, the effect is positive, indicating that minimum wages actually increase female employment. We use 32 moderators as potential explanatory variables to explain the heterogeneity of the literature and find that it stems from the data characteristics and methods used in econometric estimates. In addition, education plays an important role in regulating the female employment effect of minimum wages. Furthermore, we find that the minimum wage results in an increase in female employment in developing countries, while developed countries do not benefit from the minimum wage system. This could be related to differences in industrial structure, social security coverage, and informal employment rate in the two types of countries. Our results suggest that minimum wages may be an effective policy for women who are more likely to engage in minimum wage work.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the Mediating Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment in Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption: Evidence From China","authors":"Ming Meng,&nbsp;Xinxin Li,&nbsp;Tingting Pang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using a hierarchical regression model and China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2022, this paper investigates the mediating mechanism of industrial structure adjustment in the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption. Findings reveal a positive effect of economic growth on electricity consumption, with electricity consumption increasing by 0.937% for every 1% increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). Economic growth also plays a crucial role in adjusting and upgrading industrial structure, which drives local industries toward high-value chains. Furthermore, this study identified negative mediating effects of industrial structure adjustment on electricity consumption, with a total effect size of −0.085%. Specifically, the mediating effects of rationalization, upgrading, and softening of industrial structure are −0.018%, −0.021%, and −0.046%, respectively. Finally, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative effect of industrial structure adjustment is stronger in the central and western regions. In light of these findings, this study offers policy implications to achieve green and low-carbon energy transition and high-quality economic growth.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"72-82"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the Framework for Modelling Carbon Allowances: The Role of Speculation in Some Forecasting Experiment?","authors":"Jianjie Huang,&nbsp;Kazeem O. Isah,&nbsp;Oladotun D. Olaniran,&nbsp;Mohammed N. Ibrahim","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To align with the global goal of keeping temperature rise well below 2°C, the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) was established as a market-based initiative to mitigate climate change. While most carbon allowances are held and traded by polluting companies for compliance, financial actors including banks, investment firms, and brokers have increasingly participated as non-emission compliance agents (ENCAs), engaging in speculative activities that may affect market functioning. Despite widespread discussion, compelling empirical evidence on the role of speculation in carbon price dynamics has been limited. Drawing from a large Google Trends dataset, we construct a news-based speculation index to quantify speculative pressures and integrate it into an all-inclusive modeling framework that accounts for both emission compliance and non-compliance dynamics. Given the inherent volatility and mixed-frequency nature of the data, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS model, which accommodates variables at their natural frequencies while capturing both short- and long-term volatility. Our out-of-sample forecasts show that models incorporating speculation and composite indicators consistently outperform the benchmark GARCH-MIDAS-RV model in returns, volatility, and Sharpe Ratios. Speculation emerges as a significant driver of risk-adjusted performance, particularly over medium- and long-term horizons, indicating that non-compliance actors materially influence EUA price formation. The findings have clear economic and policy implications. Regulators can use data-driven estimates of speculation to guide market participation rules and maintain stability, while investors can enhance portfolio performance by integrating speculative signals into forecasting models. Overall, the study provides a comprehensive, economically meaningful understanding of carbon price dynamics, reconciling market fundamentals with speculative activity and informing both policy and investment strategy in the EU-ETS.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"59-71"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Factors Principally Driving the Volatility of Australian Stocks Through the Business Cycle","authors":"Sudhir Madaree","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70004","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examined the principal factors driving the return volatility of a basket of Australian stocks, with the aim of understanding the volatility behaviour of such factors over the business cycle. Special focus was placed on unusual market events identified during the business cycle, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. The study analysed monthly stock return and seasonally adjusted quarterly real GDP data from June 2011 to December 2024 using PAF and HP filter models respectively. The results showed that four factors accounted for around 67% of the return volatility of the stocks sampled. Factor 1 was primarily driven by REIT stocks, Factor 2 by bank stocks, Factor 3 by industrial and metal stocks and Factor 4 by coal, oil and gas stocks. These four principal factors exhibited unusual downside volatility levels over one subperiod of the business cycle, namely the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. An implication of this study from the investment function perspective of the economy concerns the impact of overexposure to unusually volatile stock sectors by major fund providers. A particular issue concerns the rising interconnectedness between Superannuation funds and overinvested sectors, particularly the noticeable exposure to major local banks and the potential impact such an overexposure may have on financial market stability during periods of market volatility.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"491-503"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Security Schemes, Economic Crisis, and Child Education: An Empirical Study During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand","authors":"Aeggarchat Sirisankanan,&nbsp;Papar Kananurak","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study first examined the function of social security schemes in moderating the adverse effects on child education of unemployment among household members. Using data from the 2019 non-crisis period and the 2021 crisis period from the Thailand Socio-Economic Survey, two-step estimation models were employed due to the presence of a large number of censored observations. In addition, the validity of the results was supported by utilizing an instrumental variable approach to address the possibility of an endogeneity problem. Of greater importance, the negative effects of unemployment were moderated when unemployed household members were covered by social security schemes. The results show that the negative impact of unemployment on educational spending was significantly larger during the 2021 crisis period compared to the 2019 non-crisis period. To further verify the mitigating role of SSS, the robustness of the results was also checked by including an interaction term between unemployment and SSS in two-stage decision models, along with additional control variables.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"417-434"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Finance: Employment Opportunity or Alternative Crisis: Evidence From Chinese Listed Companies","authors":"Yuran Sun,&nbsp;Xiaohui Chen,&nbsp;Zhenmin Wang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Based on a theoretical analysis, this study examines the impact of climate finance on employment and its mechanism based on calculated climate finance indices of Chinese cities and provinces from 2008 to 2023, combined with samples of A-share listed enterprises in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The results show that climate finance plays a positive role in promoting the employment level of enterprises. With the improvement in the climate finance level in the city where enterprises are located, the employment level of enterprises increases. Second, climate finance reduces the capital-labor ratio of enterprises by encouraging them to carry out R&amp;D activities, digital transformation, and risk hedging. This reduces the capital-labor ratio and improves the employment level of enterprises. Third, climate finance can reduce the agency cost between shareholders and managers by reducing the difficulty of supervision by shareholders, alleviates information asymmetry, and curbs managerial opportunistic behavior. This lowers agency costs between shareholders and managers, thereby improving the employment level of enterprises.</p>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"402-416"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8454.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unemployment and Transport Poverty: Evidence From Australian Households","authors":"Opoku Adabor,&nbsp;Enock Kojo Ayesu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Transportation is crucial in modern society because it improves access to essential services, employment opportunities, and recreational activities. Examining the implications of transport poverty is therefore an important public policy issue. To add to the literature and policy, we examine the impact of transport poverty on unemployment at the household level. Using three different measures of transport poverty, we find that transport poverty increases unemployment at the household level. We find this effect to be relatively larger after addressing the endogeneity inherent in our preferred measures of transport deprivation using heteroskedasticity-based identification and an instrumental variable strategy. Our mediation analysis shows that employees deprived of access to affordable and reliable transport services spend more time traveling to work, increasing the risk of job instability.</p>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"389-401"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8454.70003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade Efficiency of Information and Communication Technology Products Between China and RCEP Member Countries","authors":"Xiaomei Wang,&nbsp;Yixin Zhu,&nbsp;Tonghe Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using the stochastic frontier gravity model and information and communication technology (ICT) product trade data from 2007 to 2021, this study measures and compares the efficiency of ICT product trade between China and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) member countries. The results of this study indicate that the trade flow of ICT products is positively correlated with the level of economic development and negatively correlated with geographical distance. Government efficiency, trade and transport-related infrastructure quality, higher education enrollment rate, and the number of mobile phone users have a positive effect on the trade efficiency of ICT products. Compared to the United States and the European Union, China has the lowest export efficiency and the highest import efficiency of ICT products to RCEP member countries. The trade efficiency estimates also reveal that China's efficient ICT product trading partners include Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea, while inefficient ICT product trading partners include Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Moreover, there are significant differences in trade efficiency among different categories of ICT products. Therefore, China should focus on minimizing the impact of non-efficiency factors in trade, implement differentiated cooperation strategies with RCEP member countries, and promote the diversification of ICT product trade.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"473-485"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oil Shocks and Air Travel Demand: Insights From Korea and Japan","authors":"Jungho Baek,&nbsp;Soojoong Nam","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This research explores the effects of various oil shocks—supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand—on the demand for air passenger and freight services in South Korea and Japan. Employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, it analyzes data from 2000 to 2022. The findings indicate that different oil shocks, especially two types of demand shocks, substantially impact air travel demand in these countries. The study also points out the significant roles economic growth and exchange rates play. These outcomes highlight the critical need to integrate oil price dynamics into air travel demand models, considering the specific economic contexts of South Korea and Japan. The study concludes by offering policy recommendations to mitigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on air travel, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies within the aviation industry to manage these changes effectively.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"457-472"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}