Australian Economic Papers最新文献

{"title":"Digital Economy, Industrial Structure Optimization, and Agricultural Green Development Efficiency: A Double Machine Learning Causal Analysis","authors":"Mi Zhou,&nbsp;Yinchuan Cao,&nbsp;Li Huang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The digital economy plays a role in encouraging green development in agriculture, which helps achieve food security, resource conservation, and sustainable development, and also helps promote the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This paper employs a double machine learning (DML) method to analyze the impact of the digital economy on agricultural green development efficiency and the mechanism by which it exerts this impact across 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that the digital economy positively affects the efficiency of agricultural green development, even after addressing endogeneity issues and conducting robustness checks. Analysis of the mechanism shows that vertical industrial upgrading and horizontal industrial integration are the main drivers. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis uncovers a strong compensatory effect of the digital economy, showing a more pronounced impact in non-major grain-producing, resource-based, and low-income regions. This study provides a reference for using the digital economy to promote agricultural green development efficiency in other developing countries.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"49-58"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green Finance Under Climate Risks: A Comparative Analysis of Hedging Effects Between Green Bonds and Green Stocks","authors":"Ting Wang,&nbsp;Chi-Wei Su,&nbsp;Hsuling Chang,&nbsp;Oana-Ramona Lobonţ","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Investigating the hedging effectiveness of green finance against climate risks is essential for optimizing investment strategies. This study employs the rolling-window wavelet correlation method to capture the time-varying and multiscale relationships among green bond (GB), green stock (GS), climate physical risk index (PRI), and transition risks index (TRI). The empirical results show that GB serves as a stable short-term hedge against climate transition and physical risks, supported by their fixed-income nature and alignment with climate-oriented investment demand. In contrast, GS correlates negatively with TRI in the short run but shows strengthening hedging ability against physical risks after mid-2018. Over longer horizons, GS demonstrates stronger hedging effectiveness against both risk types, with relatively consistent performance in hedging against physical risks. But GB shows weaker and less consistent hedging capacity, often correlating negatively at the fortnightly scale and partially turning positive monthly. Despite both assets remaining vulnerable to systemic financial disruptions, their complementary hedging profiles support strategic diversification within multihorizon portfolios to improve climate risk resilience. Against the backdrop of the escalating climate crisis, this paper offers strategic insights for investors, policymakers, and regulators to enhance climate risk resilience through green finance.</p>\u0000 <p>\u0000 <b>JEL Classification:</b> C32, Q54, G12</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"83-93"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is Housing Supply an Effective Remedy for Australia's House Price Affordability Trend?","authors":"Christian A. Nygaard","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>At policy level, the remedy for the housing affordability trend and crisis experienced in Australia and internationally is increasingly focusing on raising supply above historic levels of output. This <i>Policy Analysis</i> evaluates how effective increased housing supply is and can be in tackling house price affordability trends. A long-run model of house prices and housing affordability is estimated (1974–2023) to identify the required levels of dwelling output to stabilise and improve the house price to income ratio. Achieving Australian aspirational supply targets would only marginally improve the price–income ratio, and only after 20 years of above average supply. One reason for this is the income elasticity of demand relative to the price elasticity of demand. The results show that unrealistic levels of dwelling output is required to materially affect house price affordability and discusses industry-originating barriers, the income elasticity of prices and distribution of new supply to complement current planning and deregulation debates.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"94-103"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Testing the Safe-Haven Properties of Green Bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin for Traditional Bonds: A Wavelet Quantile Correlation Approach","authors":"Chi-Wei Su,&nbsp;Yu-Mei Ding,&nbsp;Kai-Hua Wang,&nbsp;Xiao-Qing Wang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this paper, the safe-haven attributes of green bonds, gold, and bitcoin are compared to those of traditional bonds under various time periods and quantiles by using the WQC methodology. The results indicate that green bonds exhibited a stable safe-haven function at longer time horizons during the full sample period, whereas other assets did not have safe-haven features. During the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin exhibited safe-haven attributes at all time horizons, whereas gold demonstrated these characteristics over the short and medium terms. In the sample period during the Russia–Ukraine war, green bonds had strong safe-haven properties at shorter and middle time horizons, whereas bitcoin had these properties at longer time spans. In this paper, a multivariate network framework that includes green bonds, gold, and bitcoin is constructed, and the theoretical foundations that influence the safe-haven attributes of assets are detailed. In addition, this study clearly presents the safe-haven effects of assets under various sample periods, time horizons, and quantiles, thereby bridging the gap of existing studies that ignore time frequency. Thus, this paper provides advice for investors, regulators, and policy-makers, such as choosing portfolios on the basis of asset characteristics, monitoring asset disclosure, and encouraging the trading of safe-haven assets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"16-29"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sector-Specific Exchange Rate Movements in Hong Kong Stock Market","authors":"Nazif Durmaz,&nbsp;Song Yang,&nbsp;Dechen Wang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present paper empirically examines the effects of exchange rate movements in Hong Kong's stock market using both linear ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models. Using quarterly data between 2005 and 2024 for 10 sector-specific industries, our findings reveal significant and asymmetric effects of currency appreciation and depreciation across various industries. Sectors such as finance, healthcare, consumption, and energy exhibit high sensitivity to exchange rate movements, influenced by trade exposure and macroeconomic conditions. The study underscores the necessity of nonlinear models to capture the complex interactions between exchange rates and equity markets. Additionally, macroeconomic variables play crucial roles in determining stock market performance, highlighting the multifaceted nature of financial market behavior in an open economy like Hong Kong. These insights extend the empirical literature and offer practical guidance for investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for sector-specific risk management strategies, targeted policy support, and enhanced macroeconomic coordination to mitigate the adverse effects of currency volatility and bolster Hong Kong's financial system against global economic shifts.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"30-48"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do Minimum Wages Increase Female Employment? Evidence From a Meta-Analysis","authors":"Xiaomei Li,&nbsp;Yulin Liu,&nbsp;Xu Si","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>One of the purposes of minimum wage legislation is to protect women workers. However, the impact of minimum wage on female employment has been controversial. We perform a meta-analysis to test the policy effect. After correcting for publication bias using the overall sample, the effect is positive, indicating that minimum wages actually increase female employment. We use 32 moderators as potential explanatory variables to explain the heterogeneity of the literature and find that it stems from the data characteristics and methods used in econometric estimates. In addition, education plays an important role in regulating the female employment effect of minimum wages. Furthermore, we find that the minimum wage results in an increase in female employment in developing countries, while developed countries do not benefit from the minimum wage system. This could be related to differences in industrial structure, social security coverage, and informal employment rate in the two types of countries. Our results suggest that minimum wages may be an effective policy for women who are more likely to engage in minimum wage work.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the Mediating Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment in Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption: Evidence From China","authors":"Ming Meng,&nbsp;Xinxin Li,&nbsp;Tingting Pang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using a hierarchical regression model and China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2022, this paper investigates the mediating mechanism of industrial structure adjustment in the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption. Findings reveal a positive effect of economic growth on electricity consumption, with electricity consumption increasing by 0.937% for every 1% increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). Economic growth also plays a crucial role in adjusting and upgrading industrial structure, which drives local industries toward high-value chains. Furthermore, this study identified negative mediating effects of industrial structure adjustment on electricity consumption, with a total effect size of −0.085%. Specifically, the mediating effects of rationalization, upgrading, and softening of industrial structure are −0.018%, −0.021%, and −0.046%, respectively. Finally, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative effect of industrial structure adjustment is stronger in the central and western regions. In light of these findings, this study offers policy implications to achieve green and low-carbon energy transition and high-quality economic growth.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"72-82"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the Framework for Modelling Carbon Allowances: The Role of Speculation in Some Forecasting Experiment?","authors":"Jianjie Huang,&nbsp;Kazeem O. Isah,&nbsp;Oladotun D. Olaniran,&nbsp;Mohammed N. Ibrahim","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To align with the global goal of keeping temperature rise well below 2°C, the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) was established as a market-based initiative to mitigate climate change. While most carbon allowances are held and traded by polluting companies for compliance, financial actors including banks, investment firms, and brokers have increasingly participated as non-emission compliance agents (ENCAs), engaging in speculative activities that may affect market functioning. Despite widespread discussion, compelling empirical evidence on the role of speculation in carbon price dynamics has been limited. Drawing from a large Google Trends dataset, we construct a news-based speculation index to quantify speculative pressures and integrate it into an all-inclusive modeling framework that accounts for both emission compliance and non-compliance dynamics. Given the inherent volatility and mixed-frequency nature of the data, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS model, which accommodates variables at their natural frequencies while capturing both short- and long-term volatility. Our out-of-sample forecasts show that models incorporating speculation and composite indicators consistently outperform the benchmark GARCH-MIDAS-RV model in returns, volatility, and Sharpe Ratios. Speculation emerges as a significant driver of risk-adjusted performance, particularly over medium- and long-term horizons, indicating that non-compliance actors materially influence EUA price formation. The findings have clear economic and policy implications. Regulators can use data-driven estimates of speculation to guide market participation rules and maintain stability, while investors can enhance portfolio performance by integrating speculative signals into forecasting models. Overall, the study provides a comprehensive, economically meaningful understanding of carbon price dynamics, reconciling market fundamentals with speculative activity and informing both policy and investment strategy in the EU-ETS.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 1","pages":"59-71"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Factors Principally Driving the Volatility of Australian Stocks Through the Business Cycle","authors":"Sudhir Madaree","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70004","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examined the principal factors driving the return volatility of a basket of Australian stocks, with the aim of understanding the volatility behaviour of such factors over the business cycle. Special focus was placed on unusual market events identified during the business cycle, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. The study analysed monthly stock return and seasonally adjusted quarterly real GDP data from June 2011 to December 2024 using PAF and HP filter models respectively. The results showed that four factors accounted for around 67% of the return volatility of the stocks sampled. Factor 1 was primarily driven by REIT stocks, Factor 2 by bank stocks, Factor 3 by industrial and metal stocks and Factor 4 by coal, oil and gas stocks. These four principal factors exhibited unusual downside volatility levels over one subperiod of the business cycle, namely the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. An implication of this study from the investment function perspective of the economy concerns the impact of overexposure to unusually volatile stock sectors by major fund providers. A particular issue concerns the rising interconnectedness between Superannuation funds and overinvested sectors, particularly the noticeable exposure to major local banks and the potential impact such an overexposure may have on financial market stability during periods of market volatility.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"491-503"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Security Schemes, Economic Crisis, and Child Education: An Empirical Study During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand","authors":"Aeggarchat Sirisankanan,&nbsp;Papar Kananurak","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study first examined the function of social security schemes in moderating the adverse effects on child education of unemployment among household members. Using data from the 2019 non-crisis period and the 2021 crisis period from the Thailand Socio-Economic Survey, two-step estimation models were employed due to the presence of a large number of censored observations. In addition, the validity of the results was supported by utilizing an instrumental variable approach to address the possibility of an endogeneity problem. Of greater importance, the negative effects of unemployment were moderated when unemployed household members were covered by social security schemes. The results show that the negative impact of unemployment on educational spending was significantly larger during the 2021 crisis period compared to the 2019 non-crisis period. To further verify the mitigating role of SSS, the robustness of the results was also checked by including an interaction term between unemployment and SSS in two-stage decision models, along with additional control variables.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"64 4","pages":"417-434"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145646811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}