Australian Economic Papers最新文献

{"title":"An Assessment of the Efficiency of Indirect Tax Revenue Mobilisation by Indian States: A Comparative Analysis During VAT and GST Regimes","authors":"Hrushikesh Mallick","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) fixed effects model, this study evaluates the factors contributing to the efficiency of indirect tax revenue mobilisation incorporating the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and tax administration quality, the dimensions which have remained unexplored for Indian states. The empirical findings demonstrate that while ICT use enhances revenue mobilisation efficiency in major states, it adversely affects the efficiency in minor states. Governance quality doesn't significantly contribute to improving revenue efficiency in either major or minor states. Although both tax regimes adversely affect revenue efficiency, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime ensures greater tax efficiency compared to the Value Added Tax (VAT) regime, as GST significantly improves efficiency in minor states relative to the VAT regime.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"310-326"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Population Ageing: Implications for Economic Growth and Fiscal Sustainability","authors":"Susantha Dissanayake,&nbsp;Priyantha Mudalige,&nbsp;Nam Hoang,&nbsp;Shawn Leu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Population ageing poses significant challenges to economic growth and fiscal sustainability in advanced economies. This study examines how fiscal sustainability and labour force participation moderate the impact of ageing on gross domestic product (GDP) growth across 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries from 1995 to 2023. We introduce a novel composite fiscal sustainability index that captures fiscal health through nine macro-fiscal indicators, integrating expenditure control, revenue adequacy, macroeconomic stability, and debt management. Employing a dynamic panel data approach with system generalised method of moments estimation, we address endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity to derive robust causal inferences. Our findings reveal that a 1% increase in the share of the older adult population reduces short-run GDP growth by 0.31% and long-run GDP growth by 0.37%. Stronger fiscal discipline significantly attenuates the negative growth impact of ageing, mitigating the growth drag by approximately 0.077 percentage points in the short run. Moreover, higher labour force participation cushions the adverse effects of demographic shifts and positively contributes to growth in both the short and long run. These results underscore the crucial roles of sound fiscal governance and inclusive labour market policies in sustaining economic vitality amid demographic headwinds. The study offers actionable insights for policymakers to design integrated fiscal and labour market reforms that promote resilient, inclusive growth in ageing advanced economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"205-221"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8454.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantile-Dependent Volatility Interconnectedness Between Commodity Markets, Oil Price Uncertainty, and Global Supply Chain Pressure","authors":"Muhammed Benli,&nbsp;Halil Altıntaş","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines volatility interconnectedness among selected agricultural commodities and precious/industrial metals, together with oil price uncertainty and global supply chain pressure, over the period January 1998 to June 2024 using a Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness framework. The approach captures distribution-sensitive and state-dependent transmission patterns across normal and extreme market conditions beyond conventional mean-based methods. The results show that volatility interconnectedness is pervasive but highly heterogeneous across quantiles, with stronger and more uneven transmission patterns under extreme market states. Within this unified commodity–uncertainty system, oil price uncertainty, and global supply chain pressure are deeply embedded in the volatility network but predominantly occupy receiver-type, macro-indicative positions, while directional roles across commodity markets remain state dependent and time varying. Further analysis indicates that major global stress episodes, including the 2007–2008 food price crisis, COVID-19, and the post-Russia–Ukraine conflict period, are associated with denser and more synchronized volatility transmission structures.</p>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"222-260"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8454.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Dynamics, Regional Disparities and Economic Drivers of Agricultural Carbon Emission in China, 2001–2020","authors":"Die Hu,&nbsp;Gan Christopher,&nbsp;Dao Le Trang Anh,&nbsp;Wei Yang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Agricultural carbon emissions are a key source of nonenergy greenhouse emissions in China, yet their spatiotemporal dynamics, regional disparities and structural changes remain insufficiently explored. This study quantifies agricultural carbon emissions in 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2020, and examines their spatiotemporal trends, regional disparities, and structural changes using the spatial Moran index to detect spatial dependence and clustering of agricultural emissions, and Theil index to decompose regional disparities. The results show that total agricultural carbon emissions rose from about 906 million tons in 2001 to a peak of approximately 1021 million tons in 2015, before declining to around 930 million tons in 2020. Spatial analysis with the global Moran's I index reveals a consistent, and at times significant, positive spatial auto-correlation, indicating regional clustering of emissions. The Theil index showed a slight decrease over the study period, reflecting a narrowing of interregional disparities, particularly between eastern and northeastern provinces. Structural analysis identifies livestock and poultry as the largest contributors, accounting for about 44% of total emissions, followed by land-use-related emissions (about 38.5%) and methane emissions from rice cultivation. These results underscore both the spatial concentration and the changing composition of agricultural emissions, highlighting the need for spatial coordinated and sector targeted mitigation policies, especially in livestock-intensive regions, to achieve emission reduction while maintaining agricultural output productivity in China's low carbon transition.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"327-339"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adoption of FinTech and Economic Uncertainty: Effects on Household Consumption Behaviour in Australia","authors":"Jassim Aladwani","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the influence of FinTech diffusion on household consumption behaviour during periods of economic uncertainty in Australia. By integrating FinTech adoption indices at the state and territory level with measures of economic uncertainty and linking these to representative household-level expenditure data, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of how digital financial services shape consumer spending patterns. This study analyses panel data from eight Australian states and territories in Australia covering 2016–2025, employing a fixed-effects model to account for unobserved regional heterogeneity. The empirical findings indicate that heightened macroeconomic uncertainty leads households to reallocate spending away from services toward single-use goods, reflecting a more cautious consumption stance. However, widespread FinTech adoption attenuates this contractionary shift. Regions with higher uptake of digital financial platforms exhibit a smaller decline in service spending, suggesting that FinTech provides alternative mechanisms for accessing credit, managing liquidity, and maintaining consumption levels even amid uncertainty. Spatial heterogeneity is also evident. The stabilizing effect of FinTech on consumption is more pronounced in urban areas, where digital infrastructure and financial literacy are comparatively higher. In contrast, rural and First Nations communities exhibit a weaker FinTech-mediated buffering effect, underscoring disparities in digital access and the need for targeted interventions. From a policy perspective, these results highlight the potential of FinTech to enhance household resilience during economic shocks. Policymakers should support the expansion of digital financial services through infrastructure investment, regulatory frameworks that promote inclusive access, and educational initiatives to improve digital financial literacy, particularly in underserved regions. By fostering a more equitable digital financial ecosystem, governments can help mitigate the adverse consumption impacts of economic uncertainty and promote broader economic stability.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"278-298"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to Do Research With AI: An Austrian Capital Theory Approach","authors":"Chris Berg","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scholarly outputs are the final goods of a heterogeneous, multi-stage, temporally extended production process. Austrian capital theory provides a way to analyse how artificial intelligence changes that process. This paper conceptualises large language models and related tools not as labour substitutes but as a portfolio of capital goods whose productive role depends on how researchers (as entrepreneurs) specify and integrate them into a plan. AI adoption deepens and rearranges the capital structure of research. Because complementarity is plan-relative, the effects of AI are intrinsically heterogeneous across researchers and fields, concentrating benefits where AI fills “holes” in an existing workflow and where complementary human capital is strongest. The framework yields practical and institutional implications, including changes to coauthorship incentives, disruptions to writing quality as a screening signal and a coordination problem as evaluation and peer-review institutions adjust to a newly capital-deepened production process.</p>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"340-348"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8454.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating G20's Green Transition: The Triple Interplay of Digitalization, Fintech, and Trade on Resource Sustainability","authors":"Chengzhi Qiao","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>As the core platform for global economic governance, the green transformation of the G-20 countries is of vital importance to global sustainable development. This study, based on panel data from 1990 to 2023 and using a second-generation econometric method, examines the impact of five factors—digitalization, fintech, trade openness, industrial growth, and per capita income—on the sustainability of natural resources. The findings are as follows: (1) Digitalization intensifies resource dependence, resulting in a “digital rebound effect”, with the transmission channel being the stimulation of consumer demand; (2) Fintech has the potential for “resource conservation” but the effect varies by country, with the transmission channel being green investment promotion; (3) Trade openness and industrial growth inhibit resource rents, verifying the environmental Kuznets curve from the resource perspective; (4) The interaction between digitalization and fintech, and between digitalization and trade openness generates a “doubled rebound effect”; (5) The impact of each factor varies systematically between developed and developing countries, as well as between emerging markets and non-emerging markets. It is recommended that the G-20 implement a comprehensive strategy integrating green digitalization, sustainable fintech, and clean industrial upgrading.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"261-277"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Chinese Yuan Affect Mexico-U.S. Bilateral Trade?","authors":"Nazif Durmaz,&nbsp;Lingchen Meng,&nbsp;Yi Zhou","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study explores how changes in exchange rates effect trade between Mexico and the United States, factoring in both exchange rate volatility and the impact of a third country's currency (the Chinese Yuan). Exports and imports of 10 industries between Mexico and the U.S. were unified utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology. Our analysis indicates that Mexico's main export sectors exhibit high responsiveness to the bilateral exchange rate, its volatility, and third-country effects over both the long and short term. By contrast, Mexico's imports are primarily affected by variations in these same three factors. Additionally, income levels in both countries are found to significantly impact bilateral trade flows across both time horizons.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 3","pages":"299-309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deciphering the Global Phillips Curve Using Sub-National Data in India's Inflation Targeting Era: Some Policy Implications","authors":"Razique Anwar,&nbsp;Atulan Guha","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our study examines the short-run Phillips Curve relationship using sub-national data from India to analyze inflation and unemployment dynamics during the inflation targeting era (IT) framework under the Global Phillips Curve (GPC) framework. It aims to identify whether the established relationship varies across different inflation regimes. Using panel data from 15 Indian states from January 2016 to May 2022, we employed the Accelerationist Phillips Curve (APC) and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) forms of the GPC. We analyzed the relationship using panel-data econometric techniques. We found no statistically significant Phillips Curve relationship on average; only isolated positive coefficients occur in a few short regimes with small samples, which might be random and transitory. The study indicates that inflation dynamics may differ across sub-national levels, possibly weakening the unemployment-inflation trade-off in India's informal labor market. The findings suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools based on the national Phillips Curve, like monetary interventions, may not be practical in India.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 2","pages":"117-126"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of International Trade Integration on Emissions","authors":"Hang Nguyen,&nbsp;My Nguyen","doi":"10.1111/1467-8454.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study estimates how international trade integration, proxied by global value chain (GVC) participation, affects carbon emissions, addressing endogeneity with fixed effects and system GMM. We find that deeper GVC integration increases CO₂ per capita, CO₂ per GDP, emissions from electricity and heat production, and CO₂ intensity. Disaggregation shows stronger emission effects for backward than forward participation. We also document nonlinearities: environmental impacts rise as countries become more deeply embedded in global production networks. Heterogeneity is salient: developing economies and energy-intensive regions, especially East Asia and the Pacific, experience the largest increases. These results highlight the need for green trade policies, cleaner production technologies, and stronger environmental regulations to mitigate emissions while sustaining global trade. The study aligns with SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production), and SDG 13 (climate action) by emphasizing the importance of low-carbon industrialization and sustainable trade practices.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46169,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Papers","volume":"65 2","pages":"105-116"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}