Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Evaluation of pharmaceutical intervention strategies against pandemics in Sweden: A scenario-driven multiple criteria decision analysis study","authors":"Anton Talantsev,&nbsp;Tobias Fasth,&nbsp;Cenny Wenner,&nbsp;Ellen Wolff,&nbsp;Aron Larsson","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1779","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1779","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To enhance preparedness for diverse pandemic situations we aim to predict the performance of various pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We gathered domain experts and ran a series of decision conferences where a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was interactively defined and implemented. Assuming an influenza pandemic, a micro simulation model was used to estimate societal health impact, a health-economic model was used to estimate economic losses, and expert preferences were elicited to define trade-offs between multiple criteria and synthesize various estimates. Sensitivity analysis to address various forms of uncertainty was also conducted. Nine intervention strategies, including the baseline “no interventions” strategy, were evaluated and ranked under five pandemic scenarios for Sweden's population. We conclude that a scenario-based MCDA approach relying on multiple models for assessment of consequences is instrumental in defining robust interventions and support decision-making at the pre-pandemic and pandemic situations.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 1-2","pages":"49-66"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/mcda.1779","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43808775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Treatment of the uncertainties in prioritization of information technology projects: A hybrid multicriteria approach","authors":"Maria Carolina Pariz,&nbsp;Claudia Maria F. Carvalho,&nbsp;Paula Cristina A. Rebelo,&nbsp;João Carlos Colmenero","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1777","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1777","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prioritizing information technology (IT) projects for resource direction is a complex decision-making process that involves the analysis of qualitative and subjective criteria. The uncertainty of the subjective and imprecise assessments derived from estimated data that represent the analyzed criteria characterizes the decision-making process. To reduce the uncertainties related to IT project priority setting, we proposed a model based on a hybrid multicriteria method composed by the best–worst method to establish the weights of the criteria and fuzzy-TOPSIS to define the project ranking. The model allows us (1) to define strategic subcriteria, (2) adjust the weights according to the company's reality, (3) to deal with the uncertainties of the evaluations of the decision makers, and (4) provide the project ranking that translates reality into the distribution of resources in the IT sector. Finally, we applied the model to a case study in the IT sector of a Brazilian agroindustrial cooperative. For the managers, the method provides a precise decision aiding tool. Although the model has been applied to the prioritization of IT projects in a cooperative, the same can be generalized to the IT sectors of other companies.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 5-6","pages":"327-340"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41763418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiple criteria decision-making in healthcare and pharmaceutical supply chain management: A state-of-the-art review and implications for future research","authors":"Iside Rita Laganà,&nbsp;Cinzia Colapinto","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1778","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1778","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Decisions in supply chain management (SCM) are subject to numerous conflicting criteria and multiple objectives. For such decisions, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are definitely appropriate. The implementation of the healthcare supply chain (HSC) is more complex to manage than any other supply chains, as it involves human life, causing conflicts of interest and hindering the final decision. Previous researchers suggested different SC models for healthcare products such as drugs, vaccines, and other medical equipment. This article provides an overview of published articles in the application of MCDM methods in HSCM at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels. We studied and categorized 139 articles published in 2006–2021, providing academic researchers, practitioners, and governments with insights into the application of different MCDM methods. The review allows us to establish guidelines for the selection of appropriate methods for HSC management and provide support to the management of issues in the healthcare and pharmaceutical sector.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 1-2","pages":"122-134"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42561874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Continuous manufacturing technologies in upstream pharmaceutical supply chains: Combining engineering and managerial criteria","authors":"Parminder Kaur Aulakh,&nbsp;Ettore Settanni,&nbsp;Jagjit Singh Srai","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1775","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1775","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in upstream pharmaceutical supply chains (PSC). One is that the global supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is overly dependent on few locations and large-scale batch manufacturing. Regulators hope to enable more dependable location decisions and improved processing quality with the adoption of advanced technologies such as process intensification through continuous manufacturing (CM). Conceptual work suggests that the benefits of shifting from batch to CM accrue end-to-end across the PSC. Yet detailed quantitative information about CM is limited at an early stage of evaluation, and too specialised to inform managerial decisions about PSC reconfiguration. Supply chain and engineering criteria are rarely combined in the early-stage evaluation of alternative CM technologies. Extant CM research typically overlooks implications for supply chain managers. To address the current gap, this article evaluates, at an early stage of adoption, alternative CM reactor technologies for the synthesis of APIs in selected therapeutic areas. With evidence from secondary data, relevant technologies and criteria are identified, and their relative importance is evaluated in a semi-quantitative fashion following analytical hierarchy process (AHP) principles, ensuring that findings are intelligible to both engineers and managers. The proposed empirical work enriches previous conceptual frameworks predicated on volume-variety considerations. Specifically, findings suggest that, all things considered, microreactor technologies outperform alternatives. However, PSC managerial considerations introduce nuances in specific therapeutic areas, for example, antivirals where a tension between complex chemistry and the need for flexibility in unit operations may favour batch manufacturing. For analgesics the need to exploit the existing manufacturing base whilst addressing inventory reduction favours technologies that incorporate elements of batch and CM. The proposed analysis is in line with real-world decisions that global medicines manufacturers are increasingly facing, as governments seek to develop local health countermeasures to the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of detailed information.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 3-4","pages":"298-312"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/mcda.1775","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"51262468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk prioritisation using fuzzy analytic network process: A case of Addis–Djibouti railway construction project","authors":"Tesfaye Gashaw,&nbsp;Kassu Jilcha","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1776","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1776","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk assessment model to prioritise the risks of railway construction projects. A fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) is employed to rank project risks based on the likelihood of project risks and their impact on cost and time. Fuzzy set theory is used to represent the vagueness in each expert's judgment, while ANP is used to deal with interdependence and feedback effects of risks. The data for this study was collected through literature reviews, interviews, and questionnaires. According to the study results, the right-of-way corresponds to the top risk that has highest impact on time and cost. Construction errors and incomplete contract details were found to rank second and third in terms of risk severity. Similarly, design changes and lack of coordination among parties are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. The study results help practitioners and decision-makers understand the main risks of the Ethiopian railway construction projects and take proactive actions accordingly. Furthermore, this paper can help researchers' model project risks and analyse their impact on project objectives considering uncertainty, interdependence, and feedback.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 3-4","pages":"313-324"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46266475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do people aggregate value? An experiment with relative importance of criteria and relative goodness of alternatives as inputs","authors":"Ulla Ahonen-Jonnarth,&nbsp;Hanna Andersson,&nbsp;Fredrik Bökman","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1773","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1773","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The concept of importance of criteria is used as a central element in several decision making contexts, specifically in value aggregation, e.g. as an input to decision support tools. For example, in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) decision makers are asked to estimate how much more important one criterion is than another. However, it is not clear how people understand aggregation models based on importance of criteria in decision making situations. The purpose of this descriptive study is to investigate if people find an aggregation model in simple value aggregation tasks which remind of the way AHP elicits the input. Further, the purpose is to investigate if people's tendency to find a model depends on their cognitive abilities. In an exploratory laboratory experiment, participants assessed which of two alternatives is the best, based on information about the importance of two criteria and how good the two alternatives are compared to each other with respect to these criteria. The results confirm that people are willing to use importance of criteria and goodness of alternatives as input in value aggregations and show three main models for aggregation. More participants with higher numeracy applied a clear model compared to those with lower numeracy. None of the identified models was one of AHP's models but one of them reminded of one of the ways input can be aggregated in the AHP. The three models identified in the experiment are based on lexicographic order, multiplication and a combination of multiplication and addition. How the results could be used in a prescriptive context is discussed in the paper.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 3-4","pages":"259-273"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/mcda.1773","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43797325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A hybrid approach based on ELECTRE III-genetic algorithm and TOPSIS method for selection of optimal COVID-19 vaccines","authors":"Roberto Louis Forestal,&nbsp;Shih-Ming Pi","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1772","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1772","url":null,"abstract":"<p>COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented challenges to the world health system, prompting academics and health professionals to develop appropriate solutions. Researchers reported different COVID-19 vaccines introduced by institutions and companies around the globe, which are at different stages of development. However, research developing an integrated framework for selecting and ranking the optimal potential vaccine against COVID-19 is minimal. This paper aimed to fill this gap by using a hybrid methodology based on ELimination Et Choice Translating REality III (ELECTRE III)–Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach to select the optimal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. ELECTRE III method yields a fathomable analysis of the concordance index, while GA is known for its ability to disaggregate decision-making preferences from holistic decisions. TOPSIS is preferred for picking an ideal and an anti-ideal solution. Thus, combining ELECTRE III-GA and TOPSIS is considered the best model to assess vaccines against the pandemic. The results confirm that the best vaccines rely on a high level of safety, efficacy, and availability. Our developed evaluation framework can help healthcare professionals and researchers gain research information and make critical decisions regarding potential vaccines against the disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 1-2","pages":"80-91"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/mcda.1772","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77995891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MCDM applications in logistics performance evaluation: A literature review","authors":"Kalyana C. Chejarla,&nbsp;Omkarprasad S. Vaidya,&nbsp;Sushil Kumar","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1774","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1774","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents a literature review of performance evaluation of logistics, and the use of multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDM) in this area. For this purpose, we covered more than 120 research articles published from 2010 to 2019. The study identifies popular research methodologies, commonly used MCDM methods and 13 research themes that are likely to continue into the coming decade. The study highlights future research opportunities in each of the identified trends. The review comprehensively covers the descriptive and analytical papers providing a 360-degree view of the developments in the area.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 3-4","pages":"274-297"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45666097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of the stability analysis of preferences for personalised colorectal cancer screening","authors":"M. Gabriela Sava,&nbsp;Alia Stanciu,&nbsp;James G. Dolan,&nbsp;Jerrold H. May,&nbsp;Luis G. Vargas","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1771","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1771","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Patients are increasingly interested in becoming involved in the medical decision-making process. As a result, healthcare providers and researchers are concerned with finding new ways to integrate patients' preferences, by understanding their commitment to and the stability of those preferences. Preventive medicine, such as colorectal cancer screening, presents an opportunity for personalising the decision-making trajectory based on patients' preferences. In this paper, we propose a framework for a joint decision-making process, capable of integrating patients' changing preferences, as described by a stability analysis of those preferences and design scenarios for implementing the process in clinical practice. In this study, a secondary data analysis, we present scenarios that demonstrate how the stability analysis of an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model supports personalising the process of agreeing on an appropriate colorectal cancer screening option. We illustrate the framework using two patients whose preferences have different stabilities and for whom the healthcare provider has different rankings for the recommended alternatives. The results show the differences in additional medical information the healthcare provider might need to provide as part of the joint decision-making process in order to reach an agreement between the patient and the provider. A stability analysis of the patient's preferences provides the healthcare provider with a mapping of the preferred options. It also shows how the patient's most preferred alternative might change as the patient obtains additional relevant medical information. Knowing how the patient's priorities might change supports a personalisation of the medical decision-making process. We conclude that the healthcare provider can utilise the stability analysis of a patient's preferences to identify possible dialogue paths that would enable reaching a consensus about an appropriate screening option.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 3-4","pages":"244-258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45123821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The multiple-criteria decision analysis of the financial and business models for the construction of new nuclear unit in the Czech Republic","authors":"Tereza Stašáková,&nbsp;Tomáš Vlček","doi":"10.1002/mcda.1770","DOIUrl":"10.1002/mcda.1770","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When discussing their future energy mix, many countries are reconsidering the position of the nuclear energy. One of the main arguments against new nuclear plants is the extremely high investment cost. Nevertheless, some countries still perceive nuclear energy as a strategic sector and are willing to invest in it, using different financial strategies. The Czech Republic has initiated the decision-making process for building and financing a new nuclear unit. This article introduces readers to the general issues of nuclear financing in a liberalised European market and, using multiple-criteria decision analysis, identifies the most suitable model for financing the construction of the new unit in the Czech Republic. The three models under consideration are introduced using the examples of three European nuclear power plant projects: Hinkley Point C, Hanhikivi and Paks II. The article compares the three new nuclear power plant projects, each representing a various financial model, with the 2015 National Action Plan for the Development of the Nuclear Energy Sector in the Czech Republic and evaluates them to choose the best model for the new nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic. Thus, it provides a comprehensive overview of the link between theoretical models, their application, and the transferability of the models.</p>","PeriodicalId":45876,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis","volume":"29 3-4","pages":"230-243"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44367852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}