Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy最新文献

{"title":"ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries","authors":"Tadeusz Kufel","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.009","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities. Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction. Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper. Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45967228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intention to move and residential satisfaction: evidence from Poland","authors":"P. Maleszyk, Arleta Kędra","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.016","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Residential mobility affects the spatial structure of cities and urban development. Longer-distance migration has many additional implications: it affects the demographic situation of a sending area as well as its growth prospects. The literature on interregional and especially international migration regards residential satisfaction as being of at least secondary importance. More attention to this concept is given in research on intra-urban migration and suburbanisation. In a seminal paper of Speare (1974), residential satisfaction was found to be the best predictor of the willingness to move. However, determinants of mobility are country-specific. Purpose of the article: Answering the following research questions: 1) What is the scale and selectivity of the intention to move among city residents? 2) Does residential satisfaction explain variation in migration intentions? Methods: The data are derived from the PAPI survey on life quality in Lublin, Poland (sample: 1101 residents). We build ordered logit models explaining residents’ declarations regarding different types of migration (intra-urban migration, suburbanisation, interregional and international migration) with various proxies of residential satisfaction, as well as financial situation and demographic attributes. Findings & Value added: The propensity to migrate was declared by approx. 15–30% of respondents, depending on the type of migration, which indicates relatively low mobility as against EU countries. We confirm that the intention to move is highly selective. The estimated ordered logit models explaining the intention to move prove that satisfaction with housing and neighbourhood characteristics along with life-stage characteristics are relevant predictors of intention to move both within and outside the region. We disregard the opinion that unemployment and adverse financial situation are key drivers of mobility in contemporary Poland. In a more international context, we provide evidence on how long- and short-distance migration are different in nature and discuss some policy implications regarding countering depopulation in peripheral areas.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48325183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Technological convergence across European regions","authors":"A. Kijek, A. Matras-Bolibok","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.014","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Given the pivotal role of innovations and technological progress in shaping the economic development of regions and the crucial significance of spatial dimension of innovation processes at the regional level, the assessment of technological convergence in the regional scope becomes an essential research problem. Technological convergence could be identified on the basis of the analysis of total factor productivity (TFP). The significance of the technological convergence analysis results from the fact that income convergence can be both accelerated or impeded, depending on whether the initial differences in the level of technology (TFP) decrease or increase over time. \u0000Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is twofold. Firstly, we attempt to develop a theoretical framework for the analysis of the technological convergence. Secondly, we investigate the technological convergence (on the basis of the TFP analysis) across European regions. \u0000Methods: During the first stage of the research, we employ the multiplicatively-complete Fare-Primont index to calculate TFP. The second stage of the study includes estimation of spatial panel models applied to assess the level of technological convergence across European regions. The research sample consists of 273 NUTS 2 European Union (EU) regions over the period 2010? 2016. \u0000Findings & Value added: The results of the study confirm a clear division of Europe into the Western European regions with high TFP values and the Eastern European regions with low TFP level. The research also shows that in the Eastern European regions the process of reducing the differences in the productivity levels is faster than in Western European regions. Since the issue of technological convergence is still not sufficiently explored in the relevant literature our paper attempts to fill a cognitive and methodological gap in the investigation of the technological convergence in the European regional space.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48904702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions: the case of the energy sector in V4 countries","authors":"J. Chovancová, J. Tej","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.011","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The production and use of energy satisfies human needs, but also gives rise to a host of adverse environmental pressures, such as air pollution and waste generation. The issue of energy efficiency and climate chance resonates in the energy sector as one of the main producers of green-house gas emissions (GHG). While the European Union in general is doing well in reducing emissions and increasing the share of renewables, unfortunately, there are countries that are still far from reaching their goal. Purpose of the article: The paper is focused on the quantitative assessment of the link between the economic growth of the energy sector and the production of GHG emissions by the energy sector in V4 countries during the period 1995–2016. For this purpose, decoupling analysis will be realized. Methods: The decoupling of economic growth and the environmental pressures caused by this growth has a rich tradition within the sustainable development literature. The decoupling method was chosen for its ability to link economic and environmental indicators. Decoupling elasticity will be calculated with the aim of assessing the relationship between the economic growth of the energy sector (measured in GVA) and GHG emissions produced by the energy sector in V4 countries within the research period. Decoupling elasticity indicates different forms of the decoupling and coupling of the two variables. Findings & Value added: The results of the analysis suggest the prevailing strong decoupling of the economic growth of the energy sector and GHG emissions produced by the energy sector, which can be considered a positive trend. The findings of this paper are relevant for the government, state and public institutions and stakeholders in general, who play important roles in the preparation of programs, projects and policies to make energy generation, transport and use more efficient and environmentally sustainable.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48915983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resistance of commercial banks to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Poland","authors":"Zbigniew Korzeb, Paweł Niedziółka","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.010","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The analysis allows to assess the impact of the industry structure of the credit portfolio on the resistance of commercial banks to the crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses two independent methods to measure the impact of the pandemic on industry risk and the methodology allowing to prioritize industries in terms of potential negative effects of the crisis. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to assess the resilience of commercial banks operating in the Polish banking sector to the potential effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The diagnostic features of 13 commercial banks were selected for its implementation. Methods: Two linear ordering methods were used, namely the Hellwig method and the TOPSIS method. The following were used as the criteria for parametric assessment of the resilience of commercial banks: capital adequacy, liquidity level, profitability of business activity, share in the portfolio of exposures with recognized impairment and the resilience of the bank's credit portfolio to the risk resulting from the exposure in economic sectors. These sectors were classified according to the level of risk associated with the effects of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings & Value added: The study allows to conclude that the largest banks conducting their operations in Poland are the most resistant ones to the consequences of the pandemic. At the same time, the banks most vulnerable due to the crisis were identified. The conclusions can be used, inter alia, in the process of managing the financial system stability risk and contribute to the discussion on the impact of the pandemic on the condition of commercial banks in emerging markets.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44784232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of the integration into Global Value Chains on the employment contract in Central and Eastern European countries","authors":"D. Nikulin, Sabina Szymczak","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.013","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: In the era of globalization, there is a need to address decent work deficits in Global Value Chains (GVCs). The forms of working conditions reveal a broad dispersion of contents. The literature review exposes hardly any Europe-focused research assessing the socio-economic impact of global production links and going beyond their pure economic effects assessed in terms of employment, productivity or wages. Purpose of the article: This paper investigates how involvement in GVCs affects labor standards. In particular, we assess how the integration into GVCs impacts the probability of having indefinite type of employment contract, which stands for one of the decent work indicator. Moreover, we draw individual and firm-level characteristics determining the type of employment contract. Methods: We use linked employer-employee data from the Structure of Earnings Survey merged with industry-level statistics on GVCs based on World Input-Output Database — the sample is composed of over 5 million workers from 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) observed in 2014. The involvement into GVCs is measured using a novel approach based on the concepts of global import intensity (GII). We employ logistic regression with robust standard errors. Findings & Value added: Controlling for individual and firm-level characteristics (sex, age, education level, length of service in enterprise, size of the enterprise) we find that greater integration into GVCs increases the probability of having temporary type of employment contact, mainly in tradable sectors. However, across CEE countries the relation between GVC and employment type is mixed. In this way we expand the existing literature by reporting the effects of GVCs on labor standards in CEEC.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42545204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deterministic chaos and forecasting in Amazon’s share prices","authors":"M. Hanias, Stefanos Tsakonas, L. Magafas, E. Thalassinos, L. Zachilas","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.012","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The application of non-linear analysis and chaos theory modelling on financial time series in the discipline of Econophysics. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the article is to identify the deterministic chaotic behavior of stock prices with reference to Amazon using daily data from Nasdaq-100. Methods: The paper uses nonlinear methods, in particular chaos theory modelling, in a case study exploring and forecasting the daily Amazon stock price. Findings & Value added: The results suggest that the Amazon stock price time series is a deterministic chaotic series with a lot of noise. We calculated the invariant parameters such as the maxi-mum Lyapunov exponent as well as the correlation dimension, managed a two-days-ahead forecast through phase space reconstruction and a grouped data handling method.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42431404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of the price elasticity of petroleum products’ consumption in Ukraine","authors":"Leonid Galchynskyi","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.015","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The analysts of the petroleum product markets of industrial countries believe that the elasticity of demand varies at different periods, which gave rise to the hypothesis that behavioral and structural factors have changed the consumers’ reaction during the last few decades, with a change in prices of petroleum products. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to study the elasticity of demand and prices in order to identify changes in consumer behavior in the oil market after significant socio-economic shocks and to establish a correlation between changes in elasticity and price volatility, with the Ukrainian petroleum products market as an illustrative example. Methods: Based on the time series of the petroleum product market of Ukraine, static and dynamic models for assessing the demand elasticity were constructed. It was found that the time series of demand for petroleum products is non-stationary but then the time series of the first differences is stationary according to the extended Dickey-Fuller test; further, the fact of co-integration between time series of consumption, income, and prices was established by the Johansson test. This made it possible to construct co-integration dependence, allowing, in turn, the development of models for assessing the elasticity of demand for petroleum products, on the basis of which objective assessments of changes in consumer behavior were established. Analysis of the monthly calculation of petroleum products’ price volatility during the period 2008 to 2018 has showed that the values of volatility increased abnormally in the period between the beginning of 2014 and the middle of 2015. The estimates of price and demand elasticities obtained for the two periods up to the beginning of 2014 and the second half of 2015 differ significantly from the values of the corresponding elasticities between the beginning of 2014 and the middle of 2015. Findings & Value added: Assessments of income elasticities and price elasticities for petroleum products in the Ukrainian market were obtained by three co-integration models, both short and long term, for each of the three previously defined time intervals. In one of them, characterized by a high level of price volatility conditionally referred to as a crisis, the value of elasticities differed markedly from the corresponding values in the other two periods, in particular, -0.383 for price elasticity and 1.068 for a long-term bond. In the other two periods, these were, respectively, 0.543 for price elasticity and 0.274 for long-term pre-crisis elasticity, and -0.470 for price elasticity and 0.235 for long-term post-crisis elasticity. Appropriate elasticity estimates were obtained for both the short-run and the dynamic model, for the same defined intervals. A comparison of these estimates showed the closeness of the values of elasticities for the pre-crisis and post-crisis intervals and a marked difference from the estimates of the elas","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47703707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of capital structure in Russian small and medium manufacturing enterprises","authors":"E. Panova","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.017","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Capital structure decisions are very important for any kind of business, but they have a special meaning for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), because their strategic miscalculations can lead to a crisis or even bankruptcy much faster due to the limited scope of their activities. Purpose of the article: The research investigates the basic theories of capital structure and their applicability to SMEs considering the specificities of their functioning. The study aims to identify the determinants of SMEs own and borrowed funds ratio and the main driving forces of their financial decisions. The paper identifies the reasons why SMEs have difficulties in attracting borrowed funds and problems with collateral provision. The paper also presents the dynamics of the capital structure and the composition of the borrowed funds in Russian SMEs. Methods: The research is based on the panel data of Russian manufacturing SMEs in the period of years 2010–2018. The panel data is unbalanced to avoid a survival bias. The financial ratios selected as variables was calculated using consolidated financial statements published by Russian Federal State Statistics Service. The statistical relations between the indicators were performed by a fixed effects regression with a dummy. Findings & Value added: The results of the research identified that current liquidity and asset structure have the statistically significant negative impact on the financial leverage in Russian manufacturing SMEs. The determinants of capital structure in Russian SMEs have not been investigated before, so the presented empirical findings are novel and can be used as a base for further research and analysis.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46946419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP) scoreboard indicators and their predictive strength of “multidimensional crises”","authors":"Krzysztof Biegun, J. Karwowski","doi":"10.24136/eq.2020.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.001","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The evaluation of the predictive strength of MIP indicators in relation to crises is extremely important for the process of coordinating the economic policies of the EU countries. MIP is one of the pillars of the economic crisis prevention procedure. Predictive power of individual indicators has not been tested before their introduction. Purpose of the article: Evaluation of the predictive strength of fourteen MIP indicators in relation to multidimensional crises in the EU countries. Methods: We used ordered probit model to test the ability of MIP indicators to correctly predict episodes of “multidimensional crises” (as defined by the authors) in the period between 2008 and 2017 in all EU Member States. Findings & Value added: We defined “multidimensional crises”, combining several negative phenomena into one limited dependent variable. This work is also novel in its application of probit regression to test the predictive strength of MIP indicators with an ordered probit model. We identified five MIP variables which were statistically significant in predicting “multidimensional crises” for all EU countries: net international investment position, nominal unit labour cost index, house price index, private sector credit flow and general government gross debt. Other variables turned out to be less important or not effective in crises prediction.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43689571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}