{"title":"THE PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF UK REGIONS AND THE CHALLENGES OF LEVELLING UP","authors":"P. McCann, Pei Yuan","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.24","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article examines the key features of the UK’s spatial productivity relationships and discusses some of the key questions currently being articulated or debated as they relate to potential devolution-related discussions. The paper demonstrates that the local productivity challenges facing UK regions are nationwide in nature rather than local, and systemic rather than specific. In particular, the scale-productivity relationships across cities and regions which are evident in almost all other OECD countries are largely absent in the UK. Instead, previous prosperity is the dominant marker of current local prosperity, suggesting that cumulative causation processes define the UK regional and urban economic landscape rather than scale relations. This article explains these features in a manner which is accessible to a wide audience, in order to provide greater clarity regarding the fundamental economic problems to be addressed and also the underlying objectives which the Levelling Up agenda needs to achieve.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"79 - 98"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"DEVOLUTION, INDEPENDENCE AND WALES’ FISCAL DEFICIT","authors":"Guto Ifan, Cian Siôn, Daniel Wincott","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Debate around Wales’ place in the United Kingdom has intensified over recent years, with radically differing visions for the union of the Welsh and UK governments emerging alongside growing (though still minority) support for Welsh independence. This article argues that these constitutional debates must be considered alongside Wales’ current fiscal position. Wales’ estimated fiscal deficit is reflective of long-standing economic underperformance as part of the UK, which we argue is unlikely to be addressed under current economic, fiscal and constitutional arrangements. On the other hand, it also suggests a difficult economic outlook for an independent Wales, which would require tough fiscal and economic choices to address Wales’ apparent balance of payments deficit.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"16 - 33"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"INSTITUTIONAL GEOGRAPHY ONCE MORE? DEVOLUTION ECONOMICS NORTHERN IRELAND STYLE","authors":"Graham Brownlow","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.15","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we investigate devolution in the Northern Irish context. The role of institutional geography is highlighted. Both contemporary and historical (c. 1921–1972) devolution models are discussed. It is argued that institutional factors provide explanations for economic weaknesses found under both devolution models. The evidence presented suggests that the institutional geography has both changed and exhibited continuities and we discuss these features in relation to contemporary issues. In particular, it is argued that institutional geography considerations have shaped the creation of the current review of tax devolution as well as the creation of an independent fiscal council.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"34 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"THE ROLE OF AN NSI IN A PANDEMIC","authors":"I. Diamond","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.38","url":null,"abstract":"It is an enormous privilege for me to present the Deane–Stone lecture. As a young academic at the University of Southampton, I read so much of the work that came out of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and was always impressed. Also, as an undergraduate and as a master’s student at the London School of Economics, Sir Richard Stone and Professor Phyllis Deane featured prominently on my reading list. In my opinion, they were pioneers of economic measurement and, today, economists benefit hugely from their legacy.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"262 1","pages":"22 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"STRESS TESTING THE FISCAL FRAMEWORK","authors":"David Bell, David Eiser, David Phillips","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.20","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The part of the UK fiscal framework which determines how UK government funding is allocated across the four home nations has undergone profound change since 2012, given tax and social security devolution. The UK government’s post-Brexit plans for regional development funding, state aid, regulation and trade negotiations have led to significant disagreements about the nature of the devolved fiscal and constitutional settlement. And the COVID-19 pandemic provided a major shock to a fiscal system with limited flexibility for the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolved governments. This paper reviews the changes and challenges faced during these reforms and policy shocks. We find that: tensions about reforms to funding arrangements reflect the inconsistency of principles guiding the reforms; that the UK government’s post-Brexit plans do reduce the policy autonomy of the devolved governments, but reflect powers central governments often have in even highly decentralised countries; and that temporary changes to rules and the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic prevented a subnational fiscal crisis, but that more systematic change may make the system more robust to future shocks. This suggests that a review of the principles underpinning the UK’s subnational fiscal and economic policies would be highly worthwhile.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"64 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 261 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.36","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"f1 - f3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 262 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2023.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2023.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"262 1","pages":"b1 - b2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"CLIMATE POLICIES: CHALLENGES, OBSTACLES AND TOOLS","authors":"F. van der Ploeg","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.29","url":null,"abstract":"A four-pronged approach to climate policy is presented consisting of carbon pricing, subsidies for renewable energies, transformative green investments and climate finance and engendering flywheel effects. Then, a variety of societal and political challenges and obstacles faced by such a climate policy and what can be done to overcome them are discussed. These range from stranded assets, the very long time scales needed to adapt and deal with global warming, intergenerational conflict, international free-rider problems, carbon leakage, green paradoxes, policy failure and capture, adverse income distributional effects and spatial scarcity to the problem of climate deniers and sceptics. The paper also discusses the various tools that are needed for the analysis of both ideal and workable climate policies, and the need to collaborate with complexity scholars, political scientists, sociologists and psychologists.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"258 1","pages":"12 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42471846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Agarwala, Matt Burke, Patrycja Klusak, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ulrich Volz, Dimitri Zenghelis
{"title":"CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES","authors":"M. Agarwala, Matt Burke, Patrycja Klusak, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ulrich Volz, Dimitri Zenghelis","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.37","url":null,"abstract":"Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic risks. Yet, markets still lack credible estimates of how climate change will affect debt sustainability, sovereign creditworthiness and the public finances of major economies. We present a taxonomy for tracing the physical and transition impacts of climate change through to impacts on sovereign risk. We then apply the taxonomy to the UK’s potential transition to net zero. Meeting internationally agreed climate targets will require an unprecedented structural transformation of the global economy over the next two or three decades. The changing landscape of risks warrants new risk management and hedging strategies to contain climate risk and minimise the impact of asset stranding and asset devaluation. Yet, conditional on action being taken early, the opportunities from managing a net zero transition would substantially outweigh the costs.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"258 1","pages":"28 - 46"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41381325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"IS HAPPINESS U-SHAPED IN AGE EVERYWHERE? A METHODOLOGICAL RECONSIDERATION FOR EUROPE","authors":"David Bartram","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.1","url":null,"abstract":"A recent contribution to research on age and well-being asserts that the impact of age on happiness is ‘u-shaped’ virtually everywhere. I evaluate that finding for European countries, considering whether it is robust to alternative methodological approaches. The analysis excludes control variables that are affected by age (noting that those variables are not antecedents of age) and explores the relationship via models that do not impose a quadratic functional form. The article shows that these alternative approaches do not produce a u-shape ‘everywhere’: u-shapes are evident for some countries, but for others, the pattern is quite different.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43906792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}