National Institute Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"ASPIRATIONS FAILURE, DISADVANTAGE TRAPS AND INCLUSIVE REGIONAL POLICY","authors":"S. Ghosal","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.51","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the implications for regional policy of new research on the role played by a failure in the ‘capacity to aspire’ [Appadurai, A. (2004), ‘The capacity to aspire’, in Rao, V. and Walton, M. (eds), Culture and Public Action, Washington, DC: World Bank.] in perpetuating disadvantage traps. After a brief review of the magnitude of the challenge that regional policy needs to confront, it provides a summary of the theoretical and empirical literature on poverty and aspirations failure (and the associated loss of agency, beliefs and self-efficacy). The key implication for the design of an inclusive regional policy is that it needs to address simultaneously the sources of external constraints (such as the availability of resources or adequate infrastructure) and mitigate the aspirations failure inherently linked to persistent disadvantage.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.51","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44180057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"HOW LONG DOES ECONOMIC INJUSTICE LAST?","authors":"D. Miles","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.50","url":null,"abstract":"This article assesses whether economic injustices that took place in the past still have significant implications for the material welfare of people many years later. That issue is central to the question of how fair is the distribution of wealth and income today. It is also relevant to issues of reparations for past wrongs. I find that in standard neoclassical models of economic growth the lingering effects of injustice from more than 70 years ago are generally small. But effects can last much longer once we allow for impacts of past injustices to be transmitted through human capital accumulation as well as physical capital.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.50","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43197552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NIE volume 255 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45282942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"HOW TO NOT MISS A PRODUCTIVITY REVIVAL ONCE AGAIN","authors":"Bart van Ark, Klaas de Vries, A. Erumban","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.49","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 15 years, productivity growth in advanced economies has significantly slowed, giving rise to the productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy – that is, the notion of increased business spending on information and communication technology assets and digital services without a noticeable increase in productivity. We argue that time lags are the most important reason for the slow emergence of the productivity effects from digital transformation. This paper provides evidence that underneath the slowing productivity growth rates at the macro level, signs of structural improvements can be detected. In the United States most of the positive contribution to productivity growth is coming from the digital producing sector. The Euro Area and the United Kingdom show larger productivity contributions from the most intensive digital-using sectors, although the United Kingdom also had a fairly large number of less intensive digital-using industries which showed productivity declines. We also find that increases in innovation competencies of the workforce are concentrated in industries showing faster growth in labor productivity, even though more research is needed to identify causality. Finally, we speculate that as the recovery from the COVID-19 recession gets underway the potential for significant productivity gains from digital transformation in the medium term is larger than during the past 15 years.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.49","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44190284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DO ECONOMISTS EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM EXPECTATIONS?","authors":"M. Weale","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.47","url":null,"abstract":"Modern economic theory gives an important role to expectations as an influence on outcomes. This paper reviews evidence on how well measures of expectations conform to outcomes. It confirms earlier results that measures taken from financial markets perform poorly as predictors of outcomes. Looking at the individual responses to the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey, it does find, however, that there are significant correlations between expected and realised outcomes of wages, prices, costs orders and employment. It also finds some evidence that actual prices reflect expected future prices, but with a coefficient much lower than economic theory predicts. There is evidence that forecast errors are explained by past forecasts, as well as revisions to the economic outlook, casting doubt on the idea that firms’ forecasts make the best use of the information available at the time. The paper concludes by observing that, while expectations are undoubtedly important, economists need to build on work looking at how they are derived instead of simply assuming they are rational.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.47","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47819610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC","authors":"G. Koop, Stuart G McIntyre, James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.8","url":null,"abstract":"Expenditure-side and income-side gross domestic product (GDP) are measured at the quarterly frequency and contain measurement error. Econometric methods exist for producing reconciled estimates of underlying true GDP from these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this paper developed a mixed-frequency reconciliation model which produces monthly estimates of true GDP. In the present paper, we investigate whether this model continues to work well in the face of the extreme observations that occurred during the pandemic year and consider several extensions of it. These include stochastic volatility and error distributions that are fat-tailed or explicitly allow for outliers.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"1 UK economic outlook: Brisk but not better growth","authors":"Hande Küçük, Cyrille Lenoël, R. Macqueen","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.16","url":null,"abstract":"1 We would like to thank Richard Barwell, Rhys Bidder, Jagjit Chadha, Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Adrian Pabst and Kemar Whyte for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 26 April 2021, more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk). Economic background and overview of the forecast","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.16","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57019741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NIE volume 256 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.19","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.19","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57019948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"1 UK economic outlook: Emerging from the shadow of Covid-19","authors":"Hande Küçük, Cyrille Lenoël, R. Macqueen","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.32","url":null,"abstract":"1 We would like to thank Arnab Bhattacharjee, Janine Boshoff, Jagjit Chadha, Huw Dixon, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Barry Naisbitt, Andrew Sentance, Bart van Ark and Garry Young for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 16th July 2021; more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk). 2 As recorded by the ‘Average of new forecasts’ in HM Treasury’s monthly ‘Forecasts for the UK economy’ Economic background and overview of the forecast","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"INTRODUCTION: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTIONS TO INFECTION CONTROL","authors":"Flavio Toxvaerd, M. Makris","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.28","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 crisis has upended the lives of many, causing almost 200M global infections to date, over 4M deaths and untold damage to the livelihoods of millions. Although the recent vaccine rollout in some parts of the world offers some room for optimism, the epidemic is still far from defeated andmany in the developing world are still at significant risk of infection. The nature of the crisis, ostensibly one related to public health, has proved to be multi-pronged, with economic and social behaviour, public health policy and economic policy closely intertwined and both reacting to and conditioning the future path of the epidemic. The policy challenged posed by the epidemic were well articulated by Chadha (2021). The severity and characteristics of COVID-19 have meant that people have spontaneously and voluntarily changed how they work, shop and socialise. In turn, these decisions have had severe social and economic consequences, with many businesses struggling to stay afloat in an environment where customers have feared and avoided crowded spaces such as retail, hospitality and public transport. As expected,most governments have sought to actively intervene and cushion people and businesses against the worst fallout from the epidemic. Yet, many governments have struggled to understand who to ask for advice and even to formulate the kind of expertise needed to navigate the crisis. As a point in case, the government of the UK has been advised primarily by three different sets of experts, namely the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) and HM Treasury, respectively. SPI-M, a subgroup of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) consisting of technical epidemiologists and modelling experts, have provided forecasting and decision support to the government by considering and simulating different possible scenarios, based on complicated mathematical models of the epidemic. Notably, the models considered by SPI-M are largely mechanistic, non-behavioural models that do not take individual behaviour into account. In addition, the remit of SPI-M explicitly disregarded the effects of different public healthmeasures, such as social distancing and lockdowns on the overall economy. In fact, it appears that economic considerations were specifically disregarded in advice formulated by SPI-M. SPI-B, another subgroup of SAGE, was tasked with considering the behavioural aspects of the crisis. Consisting primarily of behavioural scientists and psychologists, this group considered how different policy measures would likely be received by the public and how different policy interventions should be presented. Although grounded in empirical and theoretical work in behavioural sciences, the advice given by SPI-B appears not to have been directly integrated into the epidemic modelling carried out by SPI-M but rather was considered by decision makers alongside the modelling advice. In","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}