Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting最新文献

Territorial growth in Ecuador: the role of economic sectors 厄瓜多尔的领土增长:经济部门的作用

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2791/740497

R. MuÃ±oz, N. Pontarollo

引用次数: 2

A CENTRAL BANK’S DILEMMAS IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TIMES - A ROMANIAN VIEW 央行在高度不确定时期的困境——罗马尼亚人的观点

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2015-09-25 DOI: 10.4337/9781784719807.00025

D. Dăianu

引用次数: 2

History of Credit Crisis as a Mirror: An International Perspective on the Impact of the Sub-Prime Crisis on the Performance of Investment and Commercial Banks 信贷危机的历史作为镜子:次贷危机对投资银行和商业银行绩效影响的国际视角

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2219670

Yang-Cheng Lu, H. Fang, Shu‐Lien Chang

{"title":"History of Credit Crisis as a Mirror: An International Perspective on the Impact of the Sub-Prime Crisis on the Performance of Investment and Commercial Banks","authors":"Yang-Cheng Lu, H. Fang, Shu‐Lien Chang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2219670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2219670","url":null,"abstract":"For analyzing the aftermath of the latest global financial crisis, five major variables are used in this study to provide separate measures of the performance of 32 representative investment and commercial banks amongst the world’s 1,000 largest banks, in order to explore the changes in their overall performances. These measures are - the equity ratio (relating to capital adequacy), the operating cost ratio (management capability), the return on equity (shareholders’ profitability), the return on assets (bank profitability) and Tobin’s Q (business value). Our empirical results reveal that following the disclosure of the sub-prime crisis, management capability, profitability and business value, in both investment and commercial banks alike, all took a turn for the worse, with clear rises in their risks of management capability and profitability; there has also been significant deterioration in the capital adequacy of investment banks. However, the significant declines in both the management capability and profitability of investment banks and commercial banks in the developed markets differ quite markedly from the findings on similar representative banks in the emerging markets; that is, investment and commercial banks within the developed nations suffered more direct and pronounced impacts from the credit crisis than those within the emerging markets. As a direct result of the sub-prime crisis, there were significant declines in the capital adequacy and profitability of investment banks, as well as similar significant declines in the profitability and business value of commercial banks, regardless of the overall size of the bank. These results stand in stark contrast to the findings reported by both Li (2003) and Aysan and Ceyhan (2008), that when faced with financial crisis, the scale of a bank will be found to have a positive correlation with its financial performance.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"67-81"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68000664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A New Approach Method Of Company Valuation 一种新的公司估值方法

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119208020.ch8

I. Ioniţă, M. Stoica

引用次数: 10

Second order effects in population migration 人口迁移中的二阶效应

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/9781848164284_0003

I. Purica

引用次数: 1

Considerations on the Reform in the Power Sector (Avoiding Chaos on the Path to an Optimal Market Structure) 关于电力行业改革的思考(避免市场结构最优路径上的混乱)

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/9781848164284_0005

I. Purica

{"title":"Considerations on the Reform in the Power Sector (Avoiding Chaos on the Path to an Optimal Market Structure)","authors":"I. Purica","doi":"10.1142/9781848164284_0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781848164284_0005","url":null,"abstract":"The reform of a single player power sector (i.e. a natural monopoly) into a multiple-players power market brings to the clients not only the benefits of competition but also the costs of complexity. In between the two, an optimal number of players is found, corresponding to the minimum price of power to the clients. Considering time as the third dimension, the optimum curve becomes a potential surface on which the evolution of the market entities is seen as oscillations (mergers and unbundling) along the valley of the minimum price. Every oscillation triggers a price burst, which is detrimental to the clients. To avoid this, the role of the regulator is better defined in the sense of smoothing the transition from monopoly to market. The example of the US and of the EU power sectors evolution is relevant here. In the above approach, long range competition resulting from the future opening of power markets in Europe, or from the penetration, 70 years ago, of the interconnection technology in USA, is compared with the short range (local) competition. Finally, the price limits are determined, which ensure that (i) the new entrants on the market are not eliminated and (ii) the market avoids oscillations (chaotic behavior), which may drastically shock a non-resilient economy. A case study calculation is made for a transition economy (Romania).","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":"3 1","pages":"51-70"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2006-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64004469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

THE CITIES: REACTORS OF ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS 城市:经济交易的反应炉

IF 1 4区经济学

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2004-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/9781848164284_0004

I. Purica

{"title":"THE CITIES: REACTORS OF ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS","authors":"I. Purica","doi":"10.1142/9781848164284_0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781848164284_0004","url":null,"abstract":"The distribution of persons in each economy by their incomes is similar to the Maxwell-Boltzmann equilibrium distribution encountered in various physical systems. The transactions the persons are making to buy things that make them survive (in all sort of ways) are making them ‘poorer’, as they diminish the amount of money they have. The ‘work and get paid’ type of transactions are rebuilding the financial capacity of the persons. Describing this process as a diffusion equation, in a cylindrical geometry, results in a Bessel function J0(r) solution which matches the density distribution of persons in Paris (as a typical circular pattern city). The analysis of the decrease in income shows a saving/spending behavior function which saturates around 15% - 20% of the total income. This is a possible explanation of the frequent savings value of 15%-22% of GDP found in various economies. Moreover, a simple equation for the dynamic behavior of a city, on which a 365 days period is imposed, results in one week as the time after which persons have to be paid to restart transactions. The transaction cross section s is shown to have a “1/income” behavior, being a measure of the capability to make transactions, proportional to the probability of enterprises to have an income greater than a given value – this behavior has recently been shown to happen in various economies and it is known as the Zipf’s law. Using neutron physics methods in describing the economic transactions environment opens an alternative view on the forecasting models of an economic system’s behavior, and shows that the geographical dimension of a city is determined by the economic transaction behavior/environment in that city.","PeriodicalId":45554,"journal":{"name":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"20-37"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2004-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64004426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4