A CENTRAL BANK’S DILEMMAS IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TIMES - A ROMANIAN VIEW

IF 0.8 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2015-09-25 DOI:10.4337/9781784719807.00025

D. Dăianu

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper looks at policy dilemmas the National Bank of Romania has faced over the years, with the analysis framed in a European and historical context. Some of these dilemmas are of an older vintage, such as how to deal with massive capital flows, how to combat high inflation when resource misallocation is a very burdensome legacy and expectations of high inflation are well entrenched. Other dilemmas are pretty new, or have got salience during the Great Recession. Romania has had to undertake a painful correction of its large macroeconomic imbalances. “Light” inflation targeting has provided leeway for mitigating the fallout from the financial crisis, although high euroization has dented its efficacy. The specter of stagnation in the Euro Area, financial deleveraging, unconventional policies which are pursued by key central banks, the ongoing reform of banking regulation and supervision, a growing shadow banking, how will the Banking Union evolve, etc, make up a very complicated European context and pose a range of big challenges for the central banks of New Member States (NMSs).

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央行在高度不确定时期的困境——罗马尼亚人的观点

本文着眼于罗马尼亚国家银行多年来所面临的政策困境，并在欧洲和历史背景下进行分析。其中一些难题由来已久，比如如何应对大规模资本流动，如何在资源配置不当成为一项非常沉重的遗产、高通胀预期根深蒂固的情况下应对高通胀。其他的困境是相当新的，或者在大衰退期间变得突出。罗马尼亚不得不对其巨大的宏观经济失衡进行痛苦的修正。“轻”通胀目标为减轻金融危机的影响提供了余地，尽管高度欧元化削弱了其效果。欧元区停滞的幽灵、金融去杠杆化、主要中央银行奉行的非常规政策、正在进行的银行监管改革、日益增长的影子银行、银行业联盟将如何发展等，构成了一个非常复杂的欧洲背景，并对新成员国(NMSs)的中央银行构成了一系列重大挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting (RJEF) aims to become a leading journal in the field of economic modeling and forecasting for emerging and frontier markets (EFM). It is the official publication of the Institute for Economic Forecasting (IEF) within the Romanian Academy. The objective of the Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting is to promote research covering quantitative models of the macroeconomic and microeconomic activity. Focusing mainly on empirical studies meant to provide a testing environment for the theoretical models, the journal also encourages the development of relevant analysis both theoretical and applied that yields fresh insights and promotes the efficient integration of new econometric techniques like non-linear modeling, agent-based models and complex systems developed for the emerging and frontier markets. Topics covered in the Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting: Economic and econometric modeling and forecasting Non-linear macroeconomic modeling Financial modeling and forecasting Forecasting applications in macroeconomic policies, government and business Implementation of forecasting Impact of forecast uncertainty on decision making Marketing modeling and forecasting Applications in complex systems theory Applications of agent-based models Applications of spatial models Transdisciplinary developments of economic models Econophysics applications.