Second order effects in population migration

IF 0.8 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI:10.1142/9781848164284_0003

I. Purica

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Migration becomes a more and more significant process that triggers various types of complex behavior. After analyzing the process, especially with regard to the occurrence of nonlinear behavior, a model is build to include the features that may lead to the occurrence of cycles of migration reverse. The results of a simulation are showing patterns of behavior similar to the Italian case of large ex-migrations in the fifties that were reversed in mid seventies. A set of potential applications on migration from newly entrant countries in the EU to EU-15 is possible especially related to actions that may speed up the moment of migration cycle reverse.

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人口迁移中的二阶效应

迁移成为一个越来越重要的过程，它触发了各种类型的复杂行为。在分析了这一过程，特别是非线性行为的发生后，建立了一个包含可能导致迁移反转周期发生的特征的模型。模拟的结果显示，这种行为模式与意大利50年代大规模移民的情况类似，但在70年代中期发生了逆转。从欧盟新加入国家到欧盟15国的移民问题上，可能有一系列潜在的应用，特别是与可能加速移民周期逆转的行动有关的应用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting (RJEF) aims to become a leading journal in the field of economic modeling and forecasting for emerging and frontier markets (EFM). It is the official publication of the Institute for Economic Forecasting (IEF) within the Romanian Academy. The objective of the Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting is to promote research covering quantitative models of the macroeconomic and microeconomic activity. Focusing mainly on empirical studies meant to provide a testing environment for the theoretical models, the journal also encourages the development of relevant analysis both theoretical and applied that yields fresh insights and promotes the efficient integration of new econometric techniques like non-linear modeling, agent-based models and complex systems developed for the emerging and frontier markets. Topics covered in the Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting: Economic and econometric modeling and forecasting Non-linear macroeconomic modeling Financial modeling and forecasting Forecasting applications in macroeconomic policies, government and business Implementation of forecasting Impact of forecast uncertainty on decision making Marketing modeling and forecasting Applications in complex systems theory Applications of agent-based models Applications of spatial models Transdisciplinary developments of economic models Econophysics applications.